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Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer or Mobilizer?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Martin P. Wattenberg  and
Craig Leonard Brians
Martin P. Wattenberg
Affiliation:
University of California, Irvine
Craig Leonard Brians
Affiliation:
Virginia Tech
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Abstract

As political campaigns become increasingly adversarial, scholars are giving some much-needed attention to the effect of negative advertising on turnout. In a widely recognized Review article and subsequent book, Ansolabehere and his colleagues (1994, 1995) contend that attack advertising drives potential voters away from the polls. We dispute the generalizability of this claim outside the experimental setting. Using NES survey data as well as aggregate sources, we subject their research to rigorous real-world testing. The survey data directly contradict their findings, yielding no evidence of a turnout disadvantage for those who recollected negative presidential campaign advertising. In attempting to replicate Ansolabehere et al.'s earlier aggregate results we uncover quite substantial discrepancies and inconsistencies in their data set. We conclude that their aggregate study is deeply flawed and that Ansolabehere et al. exaggerated the demobilization dangers posed by attack advertising, at least in voters' own context.

Type
Forum
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 93 , Issue 4 , December 1999 , pp. 891 - 899
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1999

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