Hostname: page-component-5f745c7db-xx4dx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-06T20:58:10.205Z Has data issue: true hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Alex Mintz ,
Nehemia Geva ,
Steven B. Redd  and
Amy Carnes
Alex Mintz
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
Nehemia Geva
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
Steven B. Redd
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
Amy Carnes
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Previous studies of political decision making have used only “static” choice sets, where alternatives are “fixed” and are a priori known to the decision maker. We assess the effect of a dynamic choice set (new alternatives appear during the decision process) on strategy selection and choice in international politics. We suggest that decision makers use a mixture of decision strategies when making decisions in a two-stage process consisting of an initial screening of available alternatives, and a selection of the best one from the subset of remaining alternatives. To test the effects of dynamic and static choice sets on the decision process we introduce a computer-based “process tracer” in a study of top-ranking officers in the U.S. Air Force. The results show that (1) national security decision makers use a mixture of strategies in arriving at a decision, and (2) strategy selection and choice are significantly influenced by the structure of the choice set (static versus dynamic).

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 91 , Issue 3 , September 1997 , pp. 553 - 566
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abelson, Robert P., and Levi, Ariel. 1985. “Decision Making and Decision Theory.” In The Handbook of Social Psychology, 3d ed., ed. Lindzey, Gardner and Aronson, Elliot. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Allison, Graham T. 1969. “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review 63(09): 689–718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Paul A. 1983. “Decision Making by Objection and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” Administrative Science Quarterly 28(06): 201–22.Google Scholar
Arkes, Hal R. 1991. “Costs and Benefits of Judgment Errors: Implications for Debiasing.” Psychological Bulletin 110(11):486–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arkes, Hal R., and Blumer, Catherine. 1985. “The Psychology of Sunk Cost.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35(02):124–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aronson, Elliot, and Carlsmith, J. Merrill. 1968. “Experimentation and Social Psychology.” In The Handbook of Social Psychology, ed. Lindzey, Gardner and Aronson, Elliot. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Beach, Lee Roy, and Mitchell, Terence R.. 1978. “A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies.” Academy of Management Review 3(04):439–49.Google Scholar
Billings, Robert S., and Scherer, Lisa L.. 1988. “The Effects of Response Mode and Importance on Decision-Making Strategies: Judgment Versus Choice.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 41(02):1–19.Google Scholar
DeRouen, Karl. 1994. “The Decision Not to Use Force: A Noncompensatory Perspective.” Discussion Paper #21. The Program in Foreign Policy Decision Making, Texas A&M University.Google Scholar
Einhorn, Hillel J., Kleinmuntz, Don M., and Kleinmuntz, Benjamin. 1979. “Linear Regression and Process Tracing Models of Judgment.” Psychological Review 86(5):465–85.Google Scholar
Fiske, Susan T., Kinder, Donald R., and Larter, W. Michael. 1983. “The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 19(07):381–400.Google Scholar
Ford, J. Kevin, Schmitt, Neal, Schechtman, Susan L., Hults, Brian M., and Doherty, Mary L.. 1989. “Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 43(02):75–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
George, Alexander L. 1979. “The Causal Nexus between Cognitive Beliefs and Decision-Making Behavior: The ‘Operational Code’ Belief System.” In Psychological Models in International Politics, ed. Falkowski, Lawrence S.. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
George, Alexander L. 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Geva, Nehemia, DeRouen, Karl, and Mintz, Alex. 1993. “The Political Incentive Explanation of Democratic Peace: Evidence from Experimental Research.” International Interactions 18(09): 215–29.Google Scholar
Geva, Nehemia, Redd, Steven B., and Mintz, Alex. 1996. “Structure and Process in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Experimental Assessment of Poliheuristic Propositions.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, California, April 16–20.Google Scholar
Gilliland, Stephen W., Wood, Lisa, and Schmitt, Neal. 1994. “The Effects of Alternative Labels on Decision Behavior: The Case of Corporate Site Selection Decisions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 58(06):406–27.Google Scholar
Green, Donald P., and Shapiro, Ian. 1994. Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of Applications in Political Science. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard. 1993. Information, Participation and Choice: An Economic Theory of Democracy in Perspective. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Herek, Gregory, Janis, Irving, and Huth, Paul. 1987. “Decision Making during International Crises: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31(06):203–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret. 1986. Political Psychology. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.Google Scholar
Herstein, John A. 1981. “Keeping the Voter's Limits in Mind: A Cognitive Process Analysis of Decision Making in Voting.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40(05):843–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 1969. “The Belief System and National Images: A Case Study.” In International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. Rosenau, James N.. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 1972. “Time, Alternatives, and Communications: The 1914 and Cuban Missile Crises.” In International Crises, ed. Hermann, Charles F.. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R., and George, Alexander L.. 1975. “The Effects of Stress on the Performance of Foreign Policy Makers.” In Political Science Annual, Vol. 6: Individual Decision Making, ed. Cotter, Cornelius P.. Indianapolis, IN: Bobbs-Merrill.Google Scholar
Huber, Joel, Payne, John W., and Puto, Christopher. 1982. “Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity and the Similarity Hypothesis.” Journal of Consumer Research 9(06):90–98.Google Scholar
James, Patrick, and Oneal, John R.. 1991. “The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(06):307–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janis, Irving. 1982. Groupthink. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Johnson, Mitzi M. S., and Riggle, Ellen D. B.. 1994. “Age-Related Differences in Processing Information for Attitude-Laden Decisions.” Presented at the Cognitive Aging Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.Google Scholar
Keinan, Giora. 1987. “Decision Making under Stress: Scanning of Alternatives under Controllable and Uncontrollable Threats.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52(03):639–44.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kugler, Jacek, Snider, Lewis W., and Longwell, William. 1991. “From Desert Shield to Desert Storm: Success, Strife or Quagmire?” Presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Ann Arbor, Michigan, November 15–17.Google Scholar
Langer, Ellen J., and Abelson, Robert P.. 1972. “The Semantics of Asking a Favor: How to Succeed in Getting Help without Really Dying.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 24(10): 26–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lau, Richard R. 1995. “Information Search during an Election Campaign: Introducing a Processing-Tracing Methodology for Political Scientists.” In Political Judgment, ed. Lodge, Milton and McGraw, Kathleen M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lau, Richard R., and Redlawsk, David P.. 1992. “How Voters Decide: A Process Tracing Study of Decision Making during Political Campaigns.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1997. “Decisional Stress, Individual Choice and Policy Outcomes: The Arab-Israeli Conflict.” In Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Geva, Nehemia and Mintz, Alex. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Maule, A. John, and Svenson, Ola. 1993. “Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Behavioral Decision Making and Their Relation to Time Constraints.” In Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making, ed. Svenson, Ola and Maule, A. John. New York: Plenum Press.Google Scholar
McGraw, Kathleen M., and Steenbergen, Marco. 1995. “Pictures in the Head: Memory Representations of Political Candidates.” In Political Judgment, ed. Lodge, Milton and McGraw, Kathleen M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Mintz, Alex. 1993. “The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(12):595–618.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mintz, Alex. 1997. “Foreign Policy Decision Making: Bridging the Gap between the Cognitive Psychology and Rational Actor ‘Schools.’” In Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Geva, Nehemia and Mintz, Alex. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Mintz, Alex, and Geva, Nehemia. 1997. “The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making.” In Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, ed. Geva, Nehemia and Mintz, Alex. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1991. The Economic Approach to Politics: A Critical Assessment of the Theory of Rational Action. New York: Harper Collins.Google Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Bickers, Kenneth N.. 1992. “Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(03):25–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olshavsky, Richard W. 1979. “Task Complexity and Contingent Processing in Decision Making: A Replication and Extension.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 24(12):300–16.Google Scholar
Ostrom, Charles W. Jr., and Job, Brian L.. 1986. “The President and the Political Use of Force.” American Political Science Review 80(06):541–66.Google Scholar
Ostrom, Thomas M., Lingle, John H., Pryor, John B., and Geva, Nehemia. 1980. “Cognitive Organization of Person Impressions.” In Person Memory: The Cognitive Basis of Social Perception, ed. Hastie, R.et al.Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Payne, John W. 1982. “Contingent Decision Behavior.” Psychological Bulletin 92(09):382–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, John W., Bettman, James R., and Johnson, Eric J.. 1988. “Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 14(07):534–52.Google Scholar
Payne, John W., Bettman, James R., and Johnson, Eric J.. 1993. The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Rahn, Wendy M., Aldrich, John H., and Borgida, Eugene. 1994. “Individual and Contextual Variations in Political Candidate Appraisal.” American Political Science Review 88(03):193–9.Google Scholar
Riggle, Ellen D. B., and Johnson, Mitzi M. S.. 1996. “Age Difference in Political Decision Making: Strategies for Evaluating Political Candidates.” Political Behavior 18(03):99–118.Google Scholar
Roenker, Daniel L., Thompson, Charles P., and Brown, Sam C.. 1971. “Comparison of Measures for the Estimation of Clustering in Free Recall.” Psychological Bulletin 76(07):45–48.Google Scholar
Russo, J. Edward, and Dosher, Barbara Anne. 1983. “Strategies for Multiattribute Binary Choice.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 9(10):676–96.Google Scholar
Simonson, Itamar. 1989. “Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects.” Journal of Consumer Research 16(09):158–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sniderman, Paul M., Brody, Richard A., and Tetlock, Philip. 1991. Reasoning and Choice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stein, Janice, and Tanter, Raymond. 1980. Rational Decision Making: Israel's Security Choices, 1967. Columbus: Ohio State University Press.Google Scholar
Stone, Dan, and Schkade, David A.. 1991. “Numeric and Linguistic Information Representation in Multiattribute Choice.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 49(06):42–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Suedfeld, Peter, and Tetlock, Philip E.. 1992. “Psychological Advice about Political Decision Making: Heuristics, Biases, and Cognitive Defects.” In Psychology and Social Policy, ed. Suedfeld, Peter and Tetlock, Philip E.. New York: Hemisphere Publishing.Google Scholar
Suedfeld, Peter, Wallace, Michael D., and Thachuk, Kimberly L.. 1993. “Changes in Integrative Complexity among Middle East Leaders during the Persian Gulf Crisis.” Journal of Social Issues 49(Winter):183–99.Google Scholar
Svenson, Ola. 1979. “Process Descriptions of Decision Making.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 23(02): 86–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taber, Charles S., and Steenbergen, Marco R.. 1995. “Computational Experiments in Electoral Behavior.” In Political Judgment, ed. Lodge, Milton and McGraw, Kathleen M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E. 1992. “The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward a Social Contingency Model.” In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, ed. Zanna, Mark P.. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E., and Boettger, Richard. 1989. “Accountability: A Social Magnifier of the Dilution Effect.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57(09):388–98.Google Scholar
Zey, Mary, ed. 1992. Decision Making: Alternatives to Rational Choice Models. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.