¹ Brotman, Herman B., “The Older Population Revisited: First Results of the 1970 Census,” Facts and Figureson Older Americans, Number 2, Administration on Aging, Washington, D.C., SRS-AOA Publication No. 182, 1971, p. 1 Google Scholar.

² Ibid.

³ Shryock, Henry S. and Siegel, Jacob S., The Materials and Methods of Demography, Rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1975), p. 235 Google Scholar.

⁴ Although all population projections are estimates subject to error, certain elements of these projections suggest their likely stability. For example, all people who will be in the 65+ age group in 2000 and 2020 are already bom. Estimates of future births may be made either on the assumption of high fertility or low fertility. The United States is, and recently has been, witnessing decreased fertility, a trend that is expected to be maintained for the next ten to twenty years. Consequently, the estimates used here are based upon the low fertility assumption of 2.10 births per woman – also known as replacement rate – i.e., the assumotion on which the U.S. Census Bureau's Series E projections are based. See: Cutler, Neal E. and Harootyan, Robert A., “Demography of the Aged,” in Aging: Scientific Perspectives and Social Issues, ed. Woodruff, Diana S. and Birren, James E. (New York: Van Nostrand Company, 1975), pp. 31–69 Google Scholar. A nationally distributed news story reported that a recent Census Bureau study found the fertility of American women in 1976 at a historical low. “The fertility rate now stands at 1.8 children per woman – exactly half the 1957 level.” The report also found that there are now “7.6 million fewer American children aged 13 and under than there were in 1970, even though there aie more women of childbearing age.” United Press International, “U.S. Fertility Rate Drops to Record Low,” Los Angeles Times, 02 11, 1977, p. 23 Google Scholar. The continuation of this pattern would mean that Tables 1 and 2 underestimate the proportion of older persons in the population.

⁵ For discussion of the “economics of the intergenerational relationship,” see Morgan, James N., “Economic Problems of the Aging and Their Policy Implications,” paper prepared for the Gerontological Society Conference on Public Policy Assessment of the Conditions and Status of the Elderly (Santa Barbara: 02, 1975)Google Scholar; Kreps, Juanita, “The Economics of Intergenerational Relationships,” in Social Structure and the Family: Generational Relations, ed. Shanas, Ethel and Streib, Gordon (Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1965), pp. 267–289 Google Scholar.

⁶ Walther, Robin Jane, “Economics and the Older Population,” in Woodruff, and Birren, , pp. 336–351 Google Scholar.

⁷ For example, see Lipset, Seymour Martin, Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics (New York: Double-day & Company, 1960), Chapter 6Google Scholar; Milbrath, Lester W. and Goel, M. L., Political Participation, 2nd ed. (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1977), Chapter 4Google Scholar; Verba, Sidney and Nie, Norman H., Participation in America (New York: Harper and Row, 1972), Chapter 6Google Scholar.

⁸ Neugarten, Bernice L., “Age Groups in American Society and the Rise of the Young-Old,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415 (09, 1974), 187–198 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Neugarten, Bernice L., “The Future and the Young-Old,” The Gerontologist, 15 (02, 1975), Part II, 4–9 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

⁹ Cumming, Elaine and Henry, William, Growing Old (New York: Basic Books, 1961)Google Scholar.

¹⁰ Bengtson, Vern L., The Social Psychology of Aging (New York: Bobbs-Merrill, 1973), p. 44 Google Scholar.

¹¹ Maddox, George, “Activity and Morale: A Longitudinal Study of Selected Elderly Subjects,” Social Forces, 42 (12, 1963), 195–204 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. A theoretical rebuttal to the inevitability of disengagement is presented in: Rose, Arnold M., “A Current Theoretical Issue in Gerontology,” The Gerontologist, 4 (03, 1964), 46–50 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

¹² Atchley, Robert C., The Social Forces in Later Life (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth Publishing Company, 1972), p. 35 Google Scholar.

¹³ Schaie, K. Warner, “A General Model for the Study of Developmental Problems,” Psychological Bulletin, 64 (08, 1965), 92–107 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁴ Baltes, Paul B., “Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Sequences in the Study of Age and Generation Effects,” Human Development, 11 (No. 3, 1968), 145–171 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Schaie, K. Warner and Labouvie-Vief, Gisela V., “Generational vs. Ontogenetic Components of Change in Adult Cognitive Behavior: A Fourteen-Year Cross-Sequential Study,” Developmental Psychology, 10 (05, 1974), 305–320 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Schaie, K. Warner and Parham, Iris A., “Stability of Adult Personality Traits: Fact or Fable?”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34 (1976), 146–158 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Schaie, K. Warner and Strother, Charles R., “A Cross-Sequential Study of Age Changes in Cognitive Behavior,” Psychological Bulletin, 70 (12, 1968), 671–680 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Woodruff, Diana S. and Birren, James E., “Age Changes and Cohort Differences in Personality,” Developmental Psychology, 6 (03, 1972), 252–259 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁵ Kuypers, Joseph A. and Bengtson, Vern L., “Social Breakdown and Competence: A Model of Normal Aging,” Human Development, 16 (No. 3, 1973), 182 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁶ Carp, Frances M., “Person-Situation Congruence in Engagement,” The Gerontologist, 8 (Autumn, 1968), 184–188 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁷ Roman, Paul and Taietz, Philip, “Organizational Structure and Disengagement: The Emeritus Professor,” The Gerontologist, 7 (09, 1967), 147–152 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

¹⁸ Atchley, , The Social Forces in Later Life, p. 223 Google Scholar.

¹⁹ For example, see the discussion in Cutler, Neal E. and Schmidhausen, John R. “Age and Political Behavior,” in Woodruff, and Birren, , pp. 374–406 Google Scholar.

²⁰ Verba and Nie, Participation in America, Chapter 9.

²¹ Glenn, Norval D. and Grimes, Michael, “Aging, Voting, and Political Interest,” American Sociological Review, 33 (08, 1968), p. 570 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²² Glenn, Norval D., “Aging, Disengagement, and Opinionation,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 33 (Spring, 1969), 17–33 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²³ A recent formulation of this view is included in: Hudson, Robert R. and Binstock, Robert H., “Political Systems and Aging,” in Handbook of Aging and The Social Sciences, ed. Binstock, Robert H. and Shanas, Ethel (New York: Van Nostrand, 1976), pp. 369–400 Google Scholar.

²⁴ Pressey, Sidney L. and Kuhlen, Raymond G., Psychological Development Through the Life Span (New York: Harper & Row, 1957), pp. 436–505 Google Scholar; Breen, Leonard Z., “The Aging Individual,” in Handbook of Social Gerontology, ed. Tibbitts, Clark (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960), pp. 145–162 Google Scholar; Heglin, H. J., “Problem Solving Set in Different Age Groups,” Journal of Gerontology, 11 (07, 1956), 310–316 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

²⁵ Kuhlen, Raymond G., “Changing Personal Adjustment During Adult Years,” in Psychological Aspects of Aging, ed. Anderson, John (New York: American Psychological Association, 1956), pp. 21–35 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁶ Kuypers and Bengtson, “Social Breakdown and Competence.”

²⁷ Breen, , “The Aging Individual,” p. 154 Google Scholar.

²⁸ Kuhlen, Raymond G., “Aging and Life Adjustment,” in Handbook of Aging and the Individual, ed. Birren, James E. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959), p. 882 Google Scholar.

²⁹ Hinshaw, Robert, The Relationship of Attitudes and Opinions to Age, Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Psychology, Princeton University, 1944 Google Scholar.

³⁰ Campbell, Angus, “Politics Through the Life Cycle,” The Gerontologist, 11 (Summer, 1971), 114, emphasis addedCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

³¹ Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E., The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960), pp. 153–156 Google Scholar.

³² Crittenden, John A., “Aging and Party Affiliation,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 26 (Winter, 1962), 648–657 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Cutler, Neal E., “Generation, Maturation, and Party Affiliation: A Cohort Analysis,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 33 (Winter, 1970), 583–588 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. This exchange is reprinted in Quantitative Analysis of Political Data, ed. Kirkpatrick, Samuel A. (Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill, 1974), Chapter 6, pp. 465–482 Google Scholar.

³³ Glenn, Norval D. and Hefner, Ted, “Further Evidence on Aging and Party Identification,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Spring, 1972), 31–47 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁴ Ibid., p. 47. Despite the “conclusiveness” of this statement, the issue is alive and well in political science. A sharp exchange can be followed in: Abramson, Paul R., Generational Change in American Politics (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1975)Google Scholar; Converse, Philip E., The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort Analyzing Party Identification (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1976)Google Scholar; Abramson, Paul R., “Developing Party Identification: A Further Examination of Life-Cycle, Generational, and Period Effects,” paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 09, 1977 Google Scholar.

³⁵ Campbell, Angus, “Social and Psychological Determinants of Voting Behavior,” in Politics of Age, ed. Donahue, Wilma and Tibbitts, Clark (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, 1962), pp. 87–100 Google Scholar.

³⁶ Campbell, “Politics Through the Life Cycle”; Schreiber, E. M. and Marsden, Lorna R., “Age and Opinions on a Government Program of Medical Aid,” Journal of Gerontology, 27 (01, 1972), 95–101 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Weaver, Jerry L., “The Elderly as a Political Community: The Case of National Health Policy,” Western Political Quarterly, 29 (12, 1976), pp. 610–649 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁷ Campbell, et al., The American Voter, p. 249 Google Scholar.

³⁸ A generational cohort analysis of attitudes toward federal responsibility in the provision of medical care, based upon the Michigan presidential election surveys, quite clearly revealed that cohorts observed aging from 60–64 to 65–68 years of age were substantially more supportive of the liberal (federal) position than were either the youngest cohorts in the electorate or the electorate as a whole. Furthermore, this pattern was found for each pair of successive elections over the 1952-1972 period. See: Bengtson, Vern L. and Cutler, Neal E., “Generations and Intergenerational Relations: Perspectives on Age Groups and Social Change,” in Binstock, and Shanas, , pp. 130–159 Google Scholar.

³⁹ In a recent paper Ragan suggests that the beginnings of a “backlash” against the increasing benefits now being allocated for the elderly can already be detected in both the popular and the academic press. While most of the reviewed articles and statements did not “view with alarm” the current state of affairs, many comments pointed to the conflict-prone situation summarized by the dependency ratios. Ragan, Pauline K., “Another Look at the Politicizing of Old Age: Can We Expect a Backlash Effect?”, paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of Society for the Study of Social Problems, New York, 08, 1976 Google Scholar.

⁴⁰ Mannheim, Karl, “The Problem of Generations,” in Essay on the Sociology of Knowledge, ed. and transl. Kecskemeti, Paul (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul [1928], 1952), pp. 276–322 Google Scholar; Mariás, Julian, “Generations – The Concept,” in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, Volume VI (New York: The Free Press, 1968), pp. 88–92 Google Scholar.

⁴¹ Bengtson, Vern L., “The Generation Gap: A Review and Typology of Social-Psychological Perspectives,” Youth and Society, 2 (09, 1970), 7–31 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Cutler, Neal E., “Toward a Political Generations Conception of Political Socialization,” in New Directions in Political Socialization, ed. Schwartz, David C. and Schwartz, Sandra Kenyon (New York: The Free Press, 1975), pp. 363–409 Google Scholar; Jennings, M. Kent and Niemi, Richard, “Continuity and Change in Political Orientations: A Longitudinal Study of Two Generations,” American Political Science Review, 69 (12, 1975), 1316–1335 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴² Neugarten, “Age Groups in American Society and the Rise of the Young-Old,” and Neugarten, “The Future and the Young-Old.”

⁴³ Summaries and reviews of much of this literature may be found in: Cutler, Neal E., “Generational Analysis and Political Socialization,” in Handbook of Political Socialization: Theory and Research, ed. Renshon, Stanley A. (New York: Free Press, 1977)Google Scholar; Cutler, Neal E., “Generational Approaches to Political Socialization,” Youth and Society, 8 (12, 1976), 175–207 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁴ For a general discussion see Hyman, Herbert H., Secondary Analysis of Sample Surveys: Principles, Procedures, and Potentialities (New York: Wiley, 1972), Chapter 7Google Scholar. See also: Evan, William M., “Cohort Analysis of Survey Data: A Procedure for Studying Longterm Opinion Change,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 23 (Spring, 1959), 63–72 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Cutler, Neal E., The Alternative Effects of Generations and Aging Upon Political Behavior: A Cohort Analysis of Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy, 1946-1966 (Oak Ridge: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1968)Google Scholar; Mason, Karen, Mason, William, Winsborough, H. H., and Poole, W. Kenneth, “Some Methodological Issues in Cohort Analysis of Archival Data,” American Sociological Review, 38 (04, 1973), 242–258 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Riley, Matilda White, “Aging and Cohort Succession: Interpretations and Misinterpretations,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 37 (Spring, 1973), 35–49 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Glenn, Norval D., “Cohort Analysts' Futile Quest: Statistical Attempts to Separate Age, Period, and Cohort Effects,” American Sociological Review, 41 (10, 1976), 900–908 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Glenn, Norval D., Cohort Analysis (Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1977)Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ Riley, Matilda White, “Social Gerontology and the Age Stratification of Society,” The Gerontologist, 11 (Spring, 1971), Part I, 79–87 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁶ Rose, Arnold M., “The Subculture of the Aging: A Framework for Research in Social Gerontology,” in Older People and Their Social World, ed. Roseo, Arnold and Peterson, Warren (Philadelphia: F. A. Davis, 1965), pp. 3–16 Google Scholar; Streib, Gordon F., “Are the Aged a Minority Group?”, in Applied Sociology, ed. Gouldner, Alvin W. and Miller, S. M. (New York: The Free Press, 1965)Google Scholar.

⁴⁷ Peters, George R., “Self-Conceptions of the Aged, Age Identification, and Aging,” The Gerontologist, 11 (Winter, 1971), Part II, 69–73 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Peterson, Warren A., “Research Priorities on Perceptions and Orientations Toward Aging and Toward Older People,” The Gerontologist, 11 (Winter, 1971), Part II, 60–63 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; McTavish, Donald G., “Perceptions of Old People: A Review of Research Methodologies and Findings,” The Gerontologist, 11 (Winter, 1971), Part 11,90–101 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

⁴⁸ Cutler, Neal E., “The Aging Population and Social Policy,” in Aging: Prospects and Issues, ed. Davis, Richard H. (Los Angeles: University of Southern California Press, 1976), pp. 102–126 Google Scholar.

⁴⁹ Pratt, Henry J., “Old Age Associations in National Politics,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415 (09, 1974), 106–119 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pratt, Henry J., The Gray Lobby (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976)Google Scholar.

⁵⁰ Hudson, Robert B., “Rational Planning and Organizational Imperatives: Prospects for Area Planning in Aging,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415 (09, 1974), pp. 41–54 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Steinberg, Raymond M., Longitudinal Analysis of 97 Area Agencies on Aging, Research Reports of the Social Policy Laboratory, Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, 05, 1976 Google Scholar.

⁵¹ Jackson, Jacquelyne Johnson, “NCBA, Black Aged and Politics,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415 (09, 1974), 138–159 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁵² See the several articles in Advocacy and Age, ed. Kerschner, Paul A. (Los Angeles: University of Southern California Press, 1976)Google Scholar.

⁵³ Binstock, Robert H., “Interest-Group Liberalism and the Politics of Aging,” The Gerontologist, 12 (Autumn, 1972), 265–280 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Vinyard, Dale, “Rediscovery of the Aged: ‘Senior Power’ and Public Policy,” paper prepared for delivery at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 09, 1976 Google Scholar.

⁵⁴ Binstock in particular takes the position that the elderly are most unlikely to wield substantial political influence on their own behalf either through electoral politics or interest group politics. “If government responds positively to the challenge of expanding services and facilities [for the elderly], it will be because of pervasive ideological considerations and not because it is pushed to do so by senior power.” Binstock, Robert H., “Aging and the Future of American Politics,” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415 (09, 1974), 199–212 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.