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Democratic Subversion: Elite Cooptation and Opposition Fragmentation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 July 2021

LEONARDO R. ARRIOLA Open the ORCID record for LEONARDO R. ARRIOLA [Opens in a new window] ,
JED DEVARO Open the ORCID record for JED DEVARO [Opens in a new window]  and
ANNE MENG Open the ORCID record for ANNE MENG [Opens in a new window]
LEONARDO R. ARRIOLA*
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley, United States
JED DEVARO*
Affiliation:
California State University, East Bay, United States
ANNE MENG*
Affiliation:
University of Virginia, United States
*
Leonardo R. Arriola, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, United States, and Associated Senior Researcher, Chr. Michelsen Institute, Norway, [email protected].
Jed DeVaro, The Wang Family Professor, Departments of Management and Economics, California State University, East Bay, United States, [email protected].
Anne Meng, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Virginia, United States, [email protected].
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Abstract

Incumbents in electoral regimes often retain power despite having to regularly compete in multiparty elections. We examine a specific channel through which incumbents can seek to prevent the emergence of a strong opposition that might threaten them in future elections. We present a formal model demonstrating that incumbents can strategically induce opposition fragmentation by appointing some opposition members to ministerial cabinet positions. Opposition politicians who have the opportunity to secure a cabinet position in an incumbent’s government tend to compete for office independently rather than coalescing into broad-based parties or electoral alliances. The model shows that weaker incumbents are more likely to rely on this cooptation strategy. Using original data on presidential elections across African countries during 1990–2016, we show that past cooptation of opposition politicians is associated with a more fragmented opposition field in subsequent elections.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 115 , Issue 4 , November 2021 , pp. 1358 - 1372
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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