Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T11:48:44.215Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Randall L. Calvert  and
John A. Ferejohn
Randall L. Calvert
Affiliation:
Washington University
John A. Ferejohn
Affiliation:
Stanford University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article presents a method for analyzing the extent and strength of coattail voting in presidential elections. This method allows the authors to estimate the magnitude of coattail voting and then to decompose this estimate into more “basic” elements. Estimates are given for presidential elections beginning with 1956.

The determination of the coattail vote and its decomposition depend on the theory of the voting decision that is assumed. In this article we present a model of vote determination that is similar in most respects to the traditional SRC model; the vote for congressional representation in a presidential election year is determined jointly by partisan affiliation, attitudes toward the presidential candidates, and local forces unique to the congressional race (such as may be captured by an incumbency variable). This model permits the separate estimation of the strength of short-term forces and of the efficiency of the presidential coattails.

Application of the model to survey data since 1956 indicates that efficiency of presidential coattails has declined during this period. Furthermore, the 1980 election does not appear to be an exception to this trend. On the other hand there has not been any particular trend in the strength of short-term forces during this period; instead events peculiar to the context of a specific election generate short-term forces at the level of the presidential election, but the degree to which these forces are carried over to local races seems to have declined.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 77 , Issue 2 , June 1983 , pp. 407 - 419
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1983

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bean, L.How to predict elections. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1948.Google Scholar
Bryce, J.The American commonwealth. New York: Macmillan, 1893.Google Scholar
Burnham, W. D.Insulation and responsiveness in congressional elections. Political Science Quarterly, 1975, 9, 411–435.Google Scholar
Calvert, R. L., & Ferejohn, J. A.Presidential coattails in historical perspective. Social Science Working Paper No. 343, California Institute of Technology, 1980.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Gurin, G., & Miller, W. E.The voter decides. Evanston, Ill.: Row-Peterson, 1954.Google Scholar
Converse, P. E.The concept of a normal vote. In Campbell, A.et al. (Eds.), Elections and the political order. New York: John Wiley, 1966.Google Scholar
Cook, R.Presidential coattails of little benefit. Congress and Quarterly Weekly Report 34, 11 6, 1976, 45, 3135.Google Scholar
Erikson, R.The advantage of incumbency in congressional elections. Polity, 1971, 3, 395–405.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, J. A.On the decline of competition in congressional elections. American Political Science Review, 1977, 71, 166–176.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M. P.The case of the vanishing marginals: the bureaucracy did it. American Political Science Review, 1977, 71, 177–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, G. C.Presidential coattails in 1972. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1976, 40, 194–200.Google Scholar
Judge, G., et al.The theory and practice of econometrics. New York: John Wiley, 1980.Google Scholar
Kaplowitz, S.Using aggregate voting data to measure presidential coattail effects. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1971, 55, 415–419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, S., & Mirer, T.The simple act of voting. American Political Science Review, 1974, 68, 572–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, W.Presidential coattails. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1955, 19, 353–368.Google Scholar
Moos, M.Politics, presidents, and coattails. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1952.Google Scholar
Moreland, W. B.Angels, pinpoints, and voters: the pattern for a coattail. American Journal of Political Science, 1973, 17, 170–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, B., & Jones, C.Reciprocal effects of policy preferences, party loyalties and the vote. American Political Science Review, 1979, 73, 1071–1089.Google Scholar
Stokes, D., & Miller, W.Party government and the saliency of Congress. Public Opinion Quarterly, 1962, 26, 531–546.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.