Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T14:51:43.030Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 August 2012

MARK ANDREAS KAYSER*
Affiliation:
Hertie School of Governance
MICHAEL PERESS*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
*
Mark Andreas Kayser is Professor of Applied Methods and Comparative Politics, Hertie School of Governance, Friedrichstraße 180, 10117 Berlin, Germany ([email protected]).
Michael Peress is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Rochester, Harkness Hall 326, Rochester, NY 14627 ([email protected]).

Abstract

When the economy in a single country contracts, voters often punish the government. When many economies contract, voters turn against their governments much less frequently. This suggests that the international context matters for the domestic vote, yet most research on electoral accountability assumes that voters treat their national economies as autarkic. We decompose two key economic aggregates—growth in real gross domestic product and unemployment—into their international and domestic components and demonstrate that voters hold incumbents more electorally accountable for the domestic than for the international component of growth. Voters in a wide variety of democracies benchmark national economic growth against that abroad, punishing (rewarding) incumbents for national outcomes that underperform (outperform) an international comparison. Tests suggest that this effect arises not from highly informed voters making direct comparisons but from “pre-benchmarking” by the media when reporting on the economy. The effect of benchmarked growth exceeds that of aggregate national growth by up to a factor of two and outstrips the international component of growth by an even larger margin, implying that previous research may have underestimated the strength of the economy on the vote.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Achen, Christopher H., and Bartels, Larry M.. 2002. “Blind Retrospection: Electoral Responses to Droughts, Flu, and Shark Attacks.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston.Google Scholar
Allers, Maarten A., and Elhorst, . 2005. “Tax Mimicking and Yardstick Competition among Local Governments in the Netherlands.” International Tax and Public Finance 12 (4): 493513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher J. 2007. “The End of Economic Voting? Contingency Dilemmas and the Limits of Democratic Accountability.” Annual Review of Political Science 10 (1): 271–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Meredith, Marc, and Snowberg, Erik. 2008. “Sociotropic Voting and the Media.” American National Electron Study Pilot Study Reports.Google Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Case, Anne. 1995. “Incumbent Behavior: Vote-seeking, Tax-setting, and Yardstick Competition.” American Economic Review 85 (1): 2545.Google Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Kudamatsu, Masayuki. 2006. “Health and Democracy.” American Economic Review 96 (2): 313–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa, and Kayser, Mark A.. 2011. “Counting Calories: Democracy and Distribution in the Developing World.” International Studies Quarterly 55 (4): 887908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bosch, Núria, and Solé-Ollé, Albert. 2007. “Yardstick Competition and the Political Costs of Raising Taxes: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities.” International Tax and Public Finance 14 (1): 7192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter: Unabridged Edition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Brady, David W., and Cogan, John F.. 2002. “Out of Step, out of Office: Electoral Accountability and House Members’ Voting.” American Political Science Review 96 (1): 127–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry W., and Veiga, Linda G.. 2000. “Economics and Elections in Western Europe: 1960–97.” Electoral Studies 19 (2/3): 183–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheibub, Jose A., and Przeworski, Adam. 1999. “Democracy, Elections, and Accountability for Economic Outcomes.” In Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, eds. Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan C., and Manin, Bernard. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 222–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Andrew E., Frijters, Paul, and Shields, Michael A.. 2008. “Relative Income, Happiness, and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles.” Journal of Economic Literature 46 (1): 95144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, Russell J., and Anderson, Christopher J., eds. 2011. Citizens, Context, and Choice: How Context Shapes Citizens’ Electoral Choices. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
DiTella, Rafael, and Robert, MacCulloch, . 2006. “Some Uses of Happiness Data in Economics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (1): 2546.Google Scholar
Dorussen, Han, and Palmer, Harvey D.. 2002. The Context of Economic Voting: An Introduction. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drake, Paul W. 1998. The International Causes of Democratization, 1974–1990. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Ray M., Palmer, Harvey D., and Anderson, Christopher J.. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 635–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randy. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Ray, and Stevenson, Randy. 2010. “The Global Economy, Competency, and the Economic Vote.” Journal of Politics 72: 105–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Easterlin, Richard A. 2003. “Explaining Happiness.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100 (19): 11176–83.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ebeid, Michael, and Rodden, Jonathan. 2006. “Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from US States.” British Journal of Political Science 36: 527–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elff, Martin. 2009. “Social Divisions, Party Positions, and Electoral Behaviour.” Electoral Studies 28 (2): 297308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Anderson, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” Journal of Politics 68 (1): 194207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, John. 1986. “Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control.” Public Choice 50 (1–3): 525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, M. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT:Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gasper, John T., and Reeves, Andrew. 2011. “Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentitive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters.” American Journal of Political Science 55 (2): 340–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelineau, Francois, and Remmer, Karen. 2006. “Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001.” British Journal of Political Science 36 (1): 133–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., and Wilson, J. Matthew. 2001. “Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (4): 899914.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., and Wilson, J. Matthew. 2006. “Cognitive Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Comparative Analysis of Four Democratic Electorates.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (1): 127–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grynaviski, Jeffery, and Corrigan, Bryce E.. 2006. “Specification Issues in Proximity Models of Candidate Evaluation (with Issue Importance).” Political Analysis 14: 393420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Susan B. 1999. “Life Is Not Fair: Governors’ Job Performance Ratings and State Economies.” Political Research Quarterly 52 (1): 167–88.Google Scholar
Healy, Andrew J., Malhotra, Neil, and Mo, Cecilia H.. 2010. “Irrelevant Events Affect Voters’ Evaluations of Government Performance.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (29): 12804–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hellwig, Timothy T. 2001. “Interdependence, Government Constraints, and Economic Voting.” Journal of Politics 63 (4): 1141–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy, and Samuels, David. 2007. “Voting in Open Economies: The Electoral Consequences of Globalization.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (3): 283–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1996. “The Media's Role in Forming Voters’ National Economic Evaluations in 1992.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (2): 372–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hochschild, Jennifer L. 2010. “If Democracies Need Informed Voters, How Can They Thrive While Expanding Enfranchisement?Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 9: 111–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, Jonathan N., and King, Gary. 1999. “A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data.” American Political Science Review 93 (1): 1532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Peress, Michael. 2012. “The Buck Stops over There? Benchmarking Elections in the Open Economy.” Working paper. Hertie School of Governance and University of Rochester.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2011. “Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote.” European Journal of Political Research 50 (3): 365–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, Donald, and Kiewiet, Roderick. 1981. “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science 11: 129–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary A.. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3: 183219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupia, Arthur, and McCubbins, Michael D.. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Luttmer, Erzo F. P. 2005. “Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-being.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (3): 963–1002.Google Scholar
McFadden, Daniel. 1974. “Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior.” In Frontiers in Econometrics, ed. Zarembka, P.. New York: Academic Press, 105–42.Google Scholar
Meguid, Bonnie. 2008. Party Competition between Unequals. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Min, B. 2008. “Who Gets Public Goods? Democracy and the Provision of Electrification in the Developing World.” Presented at the University of California-Los Angeles Political Methods Workshop.Google Scholar
Montinola, Gabriella R., and Jackman, Robert W.. 2002. “Sources of Corruption: A Cross-country Study.” British Journal of Political Science 32 (1): 147–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1991. “How Robust is the Vote Function? A Study of Seventeen Nations over Four Decades.” In Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, eds. Norpoth, Helmut, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Lafay, Jean D.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 933.Google Scholar
Palmer, Harvey D., and Whitten, Guy D.. 1999. “The Electoral Impact of Unexpected Inflation and Economic Growth.” British Journal of Political Science 29 (4): 623–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Bingham G. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Bingham G., and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Royed, Terry J., Leyden, Kevin M., and Borrelli, Stephen. 2000. “Is ‘Clarity of Responsibility’ Important for Economic Voting? Revisiting Powell and Whitten's Hypothesis.” British Journal of Political Science 30: 669–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuels, David, and Hellwig, Timothy. 2010. “Elections and Accountability for the Economy: A Conceptual and Empirical Reassessment.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 20 (4): 393419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soroka, Stuart N. 2006. “Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information.” Journal of Politics 68 (2): 372–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stevenson, Randy T. 1997. “How Parties Compete: Electoral Performance and Cabinet Participation in Parliamentary Democracies.” Ph.D. diss. University of Rochester.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Tucker, Joshua A., and Wittenberg, Jason. 2002. “An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data.” Political Analysis 10 (1): 6683.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2006. Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990–1999. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Urquizu-Sancho, Ignacio. 2011. “Coalition Governments and Electoral Behavior: Who Is Accountable? In Political Economy of Institutions, Democracy and Voting, eds. Schofield, Norman and Caballero, Gonzalo. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 185213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter, Eijk, Cees van der, and Franklin, Mark N.. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vermeir, Jan, and Heyndels, Bruno. 2006. “Tax Policy and Yardstick Voting in Flemish Municipal Elections.” Applied Economics 38 (19): 2285–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence. 1996. “Three International Dimensions of Democratization.” In The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas, ed. Laurence Whitehead. New York: Oxford University Press, 3–25.Google Scholar
Whitten, Guy D., and Palmer, Harvey D.. 1999. “Cross-National Analyses of Economic Voting.” Electoral Studies 18 (1): 4967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, Franklin, Mark, and Twiggs, Daniel. 1997. “Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity.” Political Behavior 19 (1): 717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Kayser and Peress

Appendix

Download Kayser and Peress(PDF)
PDF 617.1 KB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.