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The Use and Misuse of Biomedical Data: Is Bigger Really Better?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 January 2021
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Very large biomedical research databases, containing electronic health records (EHR) and genomic data from millions of patients, have been heralded recently for their potential to accelerate scientific discovery and produce dramatic improvements in medical treatments. Research enabled by these databases may also lead to profound changes in law, regulation, social policy, and even litigation strategies. Yet, is “big data” necessarily better data?
This paper makes an original contribution to the legal literature by focusing on what can go wrong in the process of biomedical database research and what precautions are necessary to avoid critical mistakes. We address three main reasons for approaching such research with care and being cautious in relying on its outcomes for purposes of public policy or litigation. First, the data contained in biomedical databases is surprisingly likely to be incorrect or incomplete. Second, systematic biases, arising from both the nature of the data and the preconceptions of investigators, are serious threats to the validity of research results, especially in answering causal questions. Third, data mining of biomedical databases makes it easier for individuals with political, social, or economic agendas to generate ostensibly scientific but misleading research findings for the purpose of manipulating public opinion and swaying policymakers.
In short, this paper sheds much-needed light on the problems of credulous and uninformed acceptance of research results derived from biomedical databases. An understanding of the pitfalls of big data analysis is of critical importance to anyone who will rely on or dispute its outcomes, including lawyers, policymakers, and the public at large. The Article also recommends technical, methodological, and educational interventions to combat the dangers of database errors and abuses.
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109 FDAAA of 2007, Pub. L. No. 110-85, 121 Stat. 823 (codified as amended in scattered sections of 21 U.S.C.).
110 21 U.S.C. § 355(o)(3) (Supp. IV 2010) (discussing post-approval studies).
111 See id. § 355(o)(3)(D) (stating that clinical trials should be conducted only if other types of studies would be inadequate).
112 See supra notes 45, 50-52 and accompanying text.
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115 Evans, supra note 108, at 439-50 (arguing that observational research and randomized clinical trials are each preferable in different circumstances, depending on the particulars of the research hypothesis).
116 21 U.S.C. § 355-1 (Supp. IV 2010).
117 Id.§ 355(o)(4).
118 Id.§ 355(e).
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123 See id.; Coloma et al., supra note 120, at 2; Trifir et al., supra note 120, at 1177.
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129 Resnic & Normand, supra note 119, at 877.
130 Leslie Lenert & David Sundwall, Public Health Surveillance and Meaningful Use Regulations: A Crisis of Opportunity, 102 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH e1, e1 (2012).
131 Resnic & Normand, supra note 124, at 876; Welcome to INTERMACS, supra note 128.
132 Lenert & Sundwall, supra note 130, at e1-e2 (arguing that the infrastructure of contemporary public health authorities is inadequate for the task of receiving and processing such large amounts of information).
133 Hoffman, Sharona & Podgurski, Andy, Big Bad Data: Law, Public Health, and Biomedical Databases, 41 J.L. Med. & Ethics 56, 56 (2013).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
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136 Id. at 2081.
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140 Id. at 589.
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143 Id. at 452 (Louisiana has developed similar alerts for tuberculosis patients in need of follow-up care.).
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147 See Welcome to MedMining, MEDMINING, http://www.medmining.com/index.html (last visited Oct. 22, 2013); Request Data, STRATEGIC HEALTHCARE PROGRAMS, LLC, https://www.shpdata.com/company/requestdata.aspx (last visited Oct. 22, 2013).
148 Rodwin, supra note 146, at 590.
149 Id. at 589.
150 FAIGMAN ET AL., supra note 20, at 339-40.
151 Id. at 341; Norris v. Baxter Healthcare Corp., 397 F.3d 878, 882 (10th Cir. 2005) (noting that “the body of epidemiology largely finds no association between silicone breast implants and immune system diseases”).
152 Milberger, Sharon et al., Tobacco Manufacturers’ Defence Against Plaintiffs’ Claims of Cancer Causation: Throwing Mud at the Wall and Hoping Some of It Will Stick, 15 Tobacco Control iv17, iv22 (Supp. IV 2006).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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159 Id.The case settled before trial.
160 Milberger et al., supra note 152, at iv22 tbl. 6; Mehlman v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. L-1141-99, (Sup. Ct. N.J. filed Feb. 4, 1999).available at http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/ekz52d00/pdf (Legacy Tobacco Documents Library).
161 Milberger et al., supra note 152, at iv22; Stephen D. Sugarman, Address at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's SAPRP Conference: Tobacco Litigation Update (revised as of November 5, 2001) 2 (Nov. 14, 2001), available at http://www.law.berkeley.edu/sugarman/tobacco_litigation_upate_october_2001_.doc. The decedent, plaintiff's wife, had stopped smoking 30 years before her death.
162 See infra Part III.C.
163 See supra Part II.A. (discussing database initiatives).
164 See infra Parts III.D., IV (discussing software failures and the challenges of causal inference).
165 See infra Part VI.A.
166 WIN PHILLIPS & YANG GONG, HUMAN COMPUTER INTERACTION: INTERACTING IN VARIOUS APPLICATION DOMAINS 589, 591 (Julie A. Jacko ed., 2009).
167 Ancker et al., supra note 40, at 61; Botsis et al., supra note 40, at 3-4; Hoffman, Sharona & Podgurski, Andy, E-Health Hazards: Provider Liability and Electronic Health Record Systems, 24 Berkeley Tech. L.J. 1523, 1544-45 (2009)Google Scholar (discussing input errors).
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170 Id.
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172 Id. A second study by the same authors examined weight measurement errors. An algorithm checked the weight records of 25,000 patients, including 420,469 weight entries. It found errors in .58% of entries in the records of “up to 7% of all patients.” See Goldberg, Saveli et al., A Weighty Problem: Identification, Characteristics and Risk Factors for Errors in EMR Data, 2010 Amia Ann. Symp. Proc. 251, 253-54.Google Scholar
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177 Id.
178 Id.
179 Id. at 1417.
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183 Greenland, Sander, Multiple-Bias Modelling for Analysis of Observational Data, 168 J. Royal Stat. Soc’Y: Series A (Stat. In Soc’Y) 267, 267-68 (2005).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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186 Klimke et al., supra note 184, at 169.
187 Id. at 168.
188 Id. at 170.
189 Newgard, Craig D. et al., Electronic Versus Manual Data Processing: Evaluating the Use of Electronic Health Records in Out-of-Hospital Clinical Research, 19 Acad. Emergency Med. 217, 224 (2012).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
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191 Hripcsak et al., supra note 180, at 50. It is especially challenging to analyze the effects of treatments or exposures in the face of data with missing items if they are not missing completely at random. Such non-random omissions create the potential for biased results. Mallinckrodt, Craig H. et al., Assessing and Interpreting Treatment Effects in Longitudinal Clinical Trials with Missing Data, 53 Biological Psychiatry 754, 755 (2003).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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193 Id.
194 Interoperable systems can communicate with each other, exchange data, and operate seamlessly and in a coordinated fashion across organizations. BIOMEDICAL INFORMATICS: COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN HEALTH CARE & BIOMEDICINE 952 (Edward H. Shortliffe & James J. Cimino eds., 2006).
195 Botsis et al., supra note 40, at 4 (stating that the EHR system that was mined for purposes of the study did not contain records of patients who were transferred to dedicated cancer centers because of the severity of their disease or who had initially been treated elsewhere).
196 Ramakrishnan, Naren et al., Mining Electronic Health Records, Computer 95, 96 (2010),Google Scholar available at http://people.cs.vt.edu/ramakris/papers/ehrmining10.pdf (discussing “the lack of data standards”).
197 Id. at 95.
198 HHS Issues Final ICD-10 Sets and Updated Electronic Transaction Standards Rules, U.S. DEP't OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVS. (Jan. 15, 2009), http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2009pres/01/20090115f.html; ICD-10, CTRS. FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVS., http://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coding/ICD10/index.html?redirect=/ICD10 (last modified Sept. 9, 2013) (indicating that HHS published a proposed rule that would delay the compliance date, setting it at October 1, 2014 rather than October 1, 2013); ICD-10 Code Set to Replace ICD-9, AM. MED. ASS’N, http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/physician-resources/solutions-managing-your-practice/coding-billing-insurance/hipaahealth-insurance-portability-accountability-act/transaction-code-set-standards/icd10-code-set.page (last visited Oct. 22, 2010).
199 de Lusignan, Simon et al., Routinely-Collected General Practice Data Are Complex, but With Systematic Processing Can Be Used for Quality Improvement and Research, 14 Informatics In Primary Care 59, 62 (2006)Google ScholarPubMed (analyzing a “picking list … taken from a general practice computer system”).
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201 OFFICE INSPECTOR GEN., U.S. DEPT. HEALTH & HUMAN SERVS., TOP MANAGEMENT & PERFORMANCE CHALLENGES (2012), https://oig.hhs.gov/reports-and-publications/top-challenges/2012/issue09.asp.
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203 Id.
204 Andrea K. Walker, Medical Billing a Target of Fraud Investigations, BALT. SUN, Jan. 12, 2012, http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-01-12/health/bs-hs-umms-malnutrition-response-2-20120112_1_health-care-fraud-coding-billing.
205 See, e.g., Liaw, Siaw-Teng et al., Data Quality and Fitness for Purpose of Routinely Collected Data – A General Practice Case Study from an Electronic Practice-Based Research Network (ePBRN), 2011 Amia Ann. Symp. Proc. 785, 789Google Scholar (noting a “lack of implemented terminology and coding standards”).
206 Botsis et al., supra note 40, at 4.
207 See AM. MED. ASS’N, supra note 198.
208 De Lusignan et al., supra note 199, at 62.
209 Id.
210 Ancker et al., supra note 40, at 61.
211 Id.
212 Christopher G. Chute, Medical Concept Representation, inMEDICAL INFORMATICS: KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT & DATA MINING IN BIOMEDICINE 163, 170 tbl. 6-1 (Hsinchun Chen et al. eds., 2010).
213 Trent Rosenbloom, S. et al., Data from Clinical Notes: A Perspective on the Tension Between Structure and Flexible Documentation, 18 J. Am. Med. Informatics Ass’N 181, 181-82 (2011).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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215 Ramakrishnan et al., supra note 196, at 97.
216 Kohane, supra note 9, at 420.
217 Kho et al., supra note 12 at 2-4; Ramakrishnan et al., supra note 196, at 97.
218 Benin, Andrea L. et al., How Good Are the Data? Feasible Approach to Validation of Metrics of Quality Derived from an Outpatient Electronic Health Record, 26 Am. J. Med. Quality 441, 441 (2011).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
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220 Hatton, Les, The Chimera of Software Quality, 40 Computer 104, 104 (2007).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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224 See supra Part III.
225 KENNETH J. ROTHMAN ET AL., MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY 148-9 (3d ed. 2008).
226 Id. at 149. According to one source, a “confidence interval calculated for a measure of treatment effect shows the range within which the true treatment effect is likely to lie (subject to a number of assumptions).” Huw T. O. Davies & Iain K. Crombie, What Are Confidence Intervals and P-Values?, WHAT IS…? SERIES (Apr. 2009), available at http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/painres/download/whatis/what_are_conf_inter.pdf.
227 See DAVID L. FAIGMAN ET AL., MODERN SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE: THE LAW AND SCIENCE OF EXPERT TESTIMONY § 4:16 (2008). ROTHMAN ET AL., supra note 225, at 196.
228 Miller, Franklin G., Research on Medical Records Without Informed Consent, 36 L. Med. & Ethics 560, 560 (2008);CrossRefGoogle Scholar see COMM. ON HEALTH RESEARCH & THE PRIVACY OF INFO.: THE HIPAA PRIVACY RULE, INST. OF MED. (IOM), BEYOND THE HIPAA PRIVACY RULE: ENHANCING PRIVACY, IMPROVING HEALTH THROUGH RESEARCH 209 (Sharyl J. Nass et al., 2009) [hereinafter IOM REPORT].
229 See IOM REPORT, supra note 228, at 213-14.
230 Id. at 212.
231 Hernn, Miguel A. et al., A Structural Approach to Selection Bias, 15 Epidemiology 615, 615 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar (explaining that “the common consequence of selection bias is that the association between exposure and outcome among those selected for analysis differs from the association among those eligible”).
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235 Hernn et al., supra note 231, at 618.
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238 ROTHMAN ET AL., supra note 225, at 185.
239 Hernn et al., supra note 231, at 617-18.
240 Collider-stratification bias may also occur because of a poorly conceived attempt to adjust for confounding bias, discussed below. Hernn et al., supra note 231, at 620 (stating that “[a]lthough stratification is commonly used to adjust for confounding, it can have unintended effects”).
241 See Greenland, Sander, Quantifying Biases in Causal Models: Classical Confounding vs. Collider-Stratification Bias, 14 Epidemiology 300, 306 (2003).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
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243 Hernn et al., supra note 231, at 615.
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247 See Brookhart et al., supra note 190, at S115.
248 Id.
249 See ROTHMAN ET AL., supra note 225, at 158.
250 Brookhart et al., supra note 190, at S114.
251 Bosco et al., supra note 246, at 64 (stating that “confounding is best controlled by a randomized design”).
252 See, e.g., id.
253 Id. at 64-65.
254 Id. at 65.
255 Psaty & Siscovick, supra note 244, at 898.
256 Id.
257 Id.
258 ROTHMAN ET AL., supra note 225, at 146-47 (discussing generalizability).
259 Id. at 147.
260 Id. at 266.
261 Id. at 271.
262 Hammer, Gael P. et al., Avoiding Bias in Observational Studies, 106 Deutsches Rzteblatt Int’L 664, 665 (2009).Google ScholarPubMed
263 Id.
264 Id.
265 See id.
266 See id.
267 Brookhart et al., supra note 190, at S116 See supra Part III for discussion of deficiencies in EHR documentation.
268 ROTHMAN ET AL., supra note 225, at 137-38.
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274 See supra notes 1-6 and accompanying text.
275 Id.
276 Daniele Fannelli, Do Pressures to Publish Increase Scientists’ Bias? An Empirical Support from US States [sic] Data, 5 PLOS ONE 1, 4 (2010).
277 Id.
278 Id. at 1.
279 Id.
280 See, e.g., supra Part IV.
281 See Rossouw, Jacques E. et al., Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease by Age and Years Since Menopause, 297 J. Am. Med. Ass’N 1465, 1465 (2007).Google ScholarPubMed
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283 Id. at 1233-34.
284 Id. at 1235. In addition, the risk of heart disease was found to increase in the first years of HRT use but then waned. Id. at 1234.
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289 Goldman, supra note 286, at 193.
290 See Hoffman & Podgurski, supra note 8, at 97-102 (discussing the benefits of EHR-based research).
291 Kalra, Dipak et al., ARGOS Policy Brief on Semantic Interoperability, 170 Stud. In Health Tech. & Informatics 1, 5 (2011);Google Scholar See also supra Parts III.B.-III.C.
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293 See supra notes 191-192 and accompanying text.
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295 See Botsis et al., supra note 40, at 4 (stating that incompleteness “could be mitigated using health information exchange (HIE) methods”); Herwehe et al., supra note 141, at 448 (explaining that “[e]lectronic health information exchange (HIE) offers a provider-acceptable means of utilizing information from multiple sources”); Jensen et al., supra note 200, at 403 (stating that “EHR data need to be merged across regional barriers in order to provide the strongest basis for research”).
296 Ceusters, Werner & Smith, Barry, Semantic Interoperability in Healthcare State of the Art in the US, St. U.N.Y. Buffalo 1, 4 (2010)Google Scholar, http://ontology.buffalo.edu/medo/Semantic_Interoperability.pdf.
297 Id.
298 M. Alexander Otto, Despite Small Steps, EHR Interoperability Remains Elusive, INTERNAL MED. NEWS (Jan. 31, 2011), http://www.internalmedicinenews.com/news/more-top-news/single-view/despite-small-steps-ehr-interoperability-remains-elusive/71b93edeb0.html.
299 Mike Miliard, EHR/HIE Interoperability Workgroup Agrees on Connectivity Specs, HEALTHCARE IT NEWS (Nov. 9, 2011), http://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/ehrhie-interoperability-workgroup-agrees-connectivity-specs; Official PR: 10 States Now Unified to Standardize Health Data Interoperability, EHR/HIE INTEROPERABILITY WORKGROUP (Feb. 20, 2012), http://interopwg.org/news/OFFICIAL-PR-10-States-Now-Unified-to-Standardize-Health-Data-Interoperability.html.
300 See Hoffman, Sharona & Podgurski, Andy, Finding A Cure: The Case for Regulation and Oversight of Electronic Health Record Systems, 22 Harv. J.L. & Tech. 103, 152-53 (2008)Google Scholar (recommending the development of a common exchange representation).
301 See 45 C.F.R. §§ 170.205, 170.207 (2012) (providing current health information exchange standards).
302 See EHR Incentive Program, CTRS. FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVS., https://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/EHRIncentivePrograms/index.html?redirect=/EHRIncentivePrograms/30_Meaningful_Use.asp (last modified June 26, 2013).
303 See supra Part III.
304 Blanchet, Kevin D., Remote Patient Monitoring, 14 Telemed. & E-Health 127, 128-30 (2008);Google ScholarPubMed Technologies for Remote Patient Monitoring in Older Adults,CTR. FOR TECH. & AGING 1, 4 (2009), http://www.techandaging.org/RPMpositionpaperDraft.pdf.
305 Technologies for Remote Patient Monitoring, supra note 304, at 4.
306 See Michael E. Wiklund, Making Medical Device Interfaces More User-Friendly, inDESIGNING USABILITY INTO MEDICAL PRODUCTS 151–60 (Michael E. Wiklund & Stephen B. Wilcox eds., 2005) (discussing user-interface problems and techniques for enhancing the user-friendliness of medical device interfaces); Williams, Adrian, Design for Better Data: How Software and Users Interact Onscreen Matters to Data Quality, 77 J. Am. Health Info. Mgmt. Inst. 56, 56 (2006)Google ScholarPubMed (stating that “[p]oorly designed software that confronts the user with confusing screens, excessive data entry fields, or unclear navigational tools … threatens the quality of the data that users enter”).
307 See supra note 306; Terry, Ken, Voice Recognition Moves Up a Notch: When the Computer Can Type While You Talk, You Save Money and Time, 81 Med. Econ. Tcp 11 (2004).Google Scholar
308 See supra note 216 and accompanying text.
309 Haerian, Krystl et al., Use of Clinical Alerting to Improve the Collection of Clinical Research Data, 2009 Amia Ann. Symp. Proc. 218, 219-20.Google Scholar
310 Id. at 219.
311 Id.
312 Id. at 220.
313 See supra Part II.B.1.
314 U.S. GOV't ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE, GAO-06-54, HOSPITAL QUALITY DATA: CMS NEEDS MORE RIGOROUS METHODS TO ENSURE RELIABILITY OF PUBLICLY RELEASED DATA 5 (2006) (discussing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ process “for ensuring the accuracy of the quality data submitted by hospitals for the APU program”); Fine, Leon G. et al., How to Evaluate and Improve the Quality and Credibility of an Outcomes Database: Validation and Feedback Study on the UK Cardiac Surgery Experience, 326 Brit. Med. J. 25, 25–26 (2003).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
315 See Curran-Everett, Douglas & Benos, Dale J., Guidelines for Reporting Statistics in Journals Published by the American Physiological Society, 18 Physiology Genomics 249, 250 (2004)CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed (discussing the importance of reporting uncertainty).
316 Id.
317 Kahn, Michael G. et al., A Pragmatic Framework for Single-Site and Multisite Data Quality Assessment in Electronic Health Record-Based Clinical Research, 50 Med. Care S21, S22 (2012).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
318 Klimke et al., supra note 184, at 168 (describing methods to assess annotation quality, including combining different pieces of evidence “in order to assign confidence levels to a particular annotation”).
319 Ioannidis, John P. A. et al., Assessment of Cumulative Evidence on Genetic Associations: Interim Guidelines, 37 Int’L J. Epidemiology 120, 122 (2008).Google ScholarPubMed
320 Id. at 126.
321 FOOD & DRUG ADMIN., BEST PRACTICES FOR CONDUCTING AND REPORTING PHARMACOEPIDEMIOLOGIC SAFETY STUDIES USING ELECTRONIC HEALTHCARE DATA SETS (2013), available at http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation.Guidances/UCM243537.pdf. See also Sanderson, Simon et al., Tools for Assessing Quality and Susceptibility to Bias in Observational Studies in Epidemiology: A Systematic Review and Annotated Bibliography, 36 Int’L J. Epidemiology 666, 666-74 (2007)CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed (providing guidance concerning observational studies but not specifically about EHR-based research).
322 See Boffetta, Paolo et al., Recommendations and Proposed Guidelines for Assessing the Cumulative Evidence on Joint Effects of Genes and Environments on Cancer Occurrence in Humans, 41 Int’L J. Epidemiology 686, 686–704 (2012);CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed see generally Ioannidis et al., supra note 319.
323 Christopher Gibbons, Michael, Use of Health Information Technology Among Racial and Ethnic Underserved Communities, 8 Persp. In Health Info. Mgmt. 1, 6 (2011)Google ScholarPubMed, available at http://perspectives.ahima.org/PDF/Winter_2011/Use_of_HIT_Among_Racial_and_Ethnic_Underserved_Communities/Use_of_HIT_Among_Racial_and_Ethnic_Underserved_Communities_final.pdf.
324 Brabham, Daren C., Crowdsourcing as a Model for Problem Solving: An Introduction and Cases, 14 Convergence 75, 76 (2008);Google Scholar Jeff Howe, Crowdsourcing: A Definition,CROWDSOURCING (June 2, 2006), http://crowdsourcing.typepad.com/cs/2006/06/crowdsourcing_a.html.
325 Tang, Paul C. et al., Personal Health Records: Definitions, Benefits, and Strategies for Overcoming Barriers to Adoption, 13 J. Am. Med. Informatics Ass’N 121, 122 (2006)Google ScholarPubMed (citing MARKLE FOUND., CONNECTING FOR HEALTH: THE PERSONAL HEALTH WORKING GROUP FINAL REPORT (2003) (defining a personal health record as “an electronic application through which individuals can access, manage and share their health information, and that of others for whom they are authorized, in a private, secure, and confidential environment”)).
326 In some cases, patients will be wrong about the existence of an error, and thus clinicians must scrutinize error reports before changing EHR entries.
327 See HIPAA Privacy Rule, 45 C.F.R. § 164.526 (2012) (“An individual has the right to have a covered entity amend protected health information or a record about the individual in a designated record set.”).
328 See Hoffman & Podgurski, supra note 157, at 1530, 1549 (describing secure messaging).
329 See Pennisi, Elizabeth, Proposal to ‘Wikify’ GenBank Meets Stiff Resistance, 319 Sci. 1598, 1598 (2008)CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed (describing a controversy regarding the process for correcting errors in GenBank, “the U.S. public archive of sequence data”).
330 JUDEA PEARL, CAUSALITY 65-68 (2d ed. 2009); VanderWeele, Tyler J. & Staudt, Nancy C., Causal Diagrams for Empirical Legal Research: Methodology for Identifying Causation, Avoiding Bias, and Interpreting Results, 10 L. Probability & Risk 329, 329-30 (2011).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
331 VanderWeele & Staudt, supra note 330, at 333; Swanson, Jeffrey & Ibrahim, Jennifer, Picturing Public Health Law Research: Using Causal Diagrams to Model and Test Theory, Pub. Health L. Res. 1, 6 (2011),Google Scholar http://publichealthlawresearch.org/sites/default/files/SwansonIbrahim-CausalDiagrams-March2012.pdf.
332 See supra note 307.
333 Swanson & Ibrahim, supra note 331, at 6.
334 Id.
335 VanderWeele & Staudt, supra note 330, at 332.
336 Id. at 329.
337 Brookhart et al., supra note 190, at S116.
338 Id.; Swanson & Ibrahim, supra note 331, at 1.
339 VanderWeele & Staudt, supra note 330, at 335.
340 PEARL, supra note 330, at 65-68; Shpitser, Ilya et al., On the Validity of Covariate Adjustment for Estimating Causal Effects, 26 Th Ann. Conf. On Uncertainty In Artificial Intell. (UAI-10) 527, 527-26 (2010);Google Scholar VanderWeele, Tyler J. & Shpitser, Ilya, A New Criterion for Confounder Selection, 67 Biometrics 1406, 1406 (2011).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
341 PEARL, supra note 330, at 79-81 (explaining the “back-door criterion”).
342 Id.
343 VanderWeele & Staudt, supra note 330, at 335.
344 PEARL, supra note 330, at 72-76 (discussing how the effect of interventions is computed).
345 Id.
346 Id.
347 See supra notes 252-254 and accompanying text.
348 Id.
349 Attia, John et al., How to Use an Article About Genetic Association B: Are the Results of the Study Valid? 301 J. Am. Med. Ass’N 191, 191 (2009);CrossRefGoogle Scholar Geneletti, Sara et al., Assessing Causal Relationships in Genomics: From Bradford-Hill Criteria to Complex Gene-Environment Interactions and Directed Acyclic Graphs, 8 Emerging Themes In Epidemiology 1, 5 (2011).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed For example, researchers have found that standard statistical approaches for estimating/testing direct genetic effects may yield biased estimates when there is a non-genetic link between the target phenotype and another phenotype. Vansteelandt, Stijn et al., On the Adjustment for Covariates in Genetic Association Analysis: A Novel, Simple Principle to Infer Direct Causal Effects, 33 Genetic Epidemiology 394, 395 (2009).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
350 Sheehan, Nuala A. et al., Mendelian Randomisation: A Tool for Assessing Causality in Observational Epidemiology, in Genetic Epidemiology 153, 153-66 (M. Dawn Teare ed., 2011);CrossRefGoogle Scholar Alekseyenko, Alexander V. et al., Causal Graph-Based Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Data in Rheumatoid Arthritis, 6 Biology Direct 25, 26 (2011);CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed Coughlin, Steven S., Quantitative Models for Causal Analysis in the Era of Genome Wide Association Studies, 4 Open Health Serv. Pol’Y J. 118, 120 (2011).Google ScholarPubMed For example, Geneletti et al. present a framework of assessing causal relationships in clinical genomics that integrates Austin Bradford Hill's influential guidelines for assessing causality, on one hand, with the use of graphical models (depicting both causal and non-causal associations), on the other hand. See Geneletti et al., supra note 349, at 5-6.
351 Lefebvre, Celine et al., Reverse-Engineering Human Regulatory Networks, 4 Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Syst. Biology Med. 311, 311 (2012).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed Such regulation occurs indirectly, via the products of gene expression, namely RNA and proteins. Id. at 312.
352 Barabasi, Albert-Lszl et al., Network Medicine: A Network-Based Approach to Human Disease, 12 Nature Rev. Genetics 56, 56 (2011).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
353 Swanson & Ibrahim, supra note 331, at 1; Anderson, Evan et al., Measuring Statutory Law and Regulations for Empirical Research, Pub. Health L. Res. Program 1, 12 (2012),Google Scholar http://publichealthlawresearch.org/sites/default/files/MeasuringLawRegulationsforEmpiricalResearch-Monograph-AndersonTremper-March2012.pdf (stating that “[b]y forcing researchers to identify plausible links between the law and health outcomes, causal diagrams help flush out the legal inputs relevant to the question of interest”).
354 In addition, statistical analysis of causal effects based on a causal diagram is valid only if certain strong assumptions hold that relate the diagram to the underlying probability distribution of the variables. Philip Dawid, A., Beware of the DAG, 6 J. Machine Learning Res. 59, 68 (2008),Google Scholar available at http://jmlr.csail.mit.edu/proceedings/papers/v6/dawid10a/dawid10a.pdf.
355 See Brookhart et al., supra note 190, at S116 (explaining that “in many studies of medical interventions, the available subject-matter knowledge is inadequate to specify with any degree of certainty the causal connections between variables”).
356 See supra notes 231, 233-38 and accompanying text. Assume the “collider” variable S indicates whether a study subject is lost to follow-up (1: yes, 0: no) and is influenced by the disease outcome O (1: cured, 0: not cured) under investigation and by treatment T (1: drug A, 0: drug B). If S was always zero (indicating “not lost to follow up”) for study participants, then the path T→S←O would be open and possibly create a spurious association between T and O resulting in selection bias. For example, suppose that a number of study subjects stopped going to the doctor because of unpleasant side effects of drug A (assume drug B has no side effects) or because they experienced no improvement in their disease symptoms and became discouraged. Among subjects who received drug A, those who completed the treatment regime might have experienced an atypically strong therapeutic effect from A, since they were willing to tolerate its side effects. Consequently, treatment A might appear more effective overall, when compared to treatment B, than it really is.
357 Genetic Disease Information – Pronto, HUMAN GENOME PROJECT INFO., http://web.archive.org/web/20130430183952/http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/medicine/assist.shtml (last modified Mar. 07, 2012) (accessed by searching for Human Genome Project Information in the Internet Archive); Understanding Human Genetic Variation, NAT’L INSTS. OF HEALTH OFFICE OF SCI. EDUC., http://science.education.nih.gov/supplements/nih1/genetic/guide/genetic_variation1.htm (last visited Oct. 15, 2013).
358 Genetic Disease Information – Pronto, supra note 357 (indicating that many other diseases are multi-factorial, chromosomal, and mitochondrial).
359 Understanding Human Genetic Variation, supra note 357.
360 Id.
361 See supra Parts II.A, II.B.1.
362 See supra Part V.
363 See supra Parts IV, VI.A.1.
364 See, e.g., Kuran, Timur & Sunstein, Cass R., Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation, 51 Stan. L. Rev. 683, 685 (1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar (discussing “the availability heuristic, a pervasive mental shortcut whereby the perceived likelihood of any given event is tied to the ease with which its occurrence can be brought to mind”); Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability, 5 Cognitive Psychology 207, 207 (1973)CrossRefGoogle Scholar (proposing “that when faced with the difficult task of judging probability or frequency, people employ a limited number of heuristics which reduce these judgments to simpler ones”).
365 Galesic, Mirta & Garcia-Retamero, Rocio, Statistical Numeracy for Health: A Cross-Cultural Comparison with Probabilistic National Samples, 170 Archives Internal Med. 462, 467 (2010).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed In addition, “almost 30% could not answer whether 1 in 10, 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 represents the largest risk” and nearly 30% “could not state what percentage 20 of 100 is.” Id.
366 Gigerenzer, Gerd et al., Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics, 8 Psychology Sci. Pub. Int. 53, 54 (2007).Google ScholarPubMed
367 See Hoffman & Podgurski, supra note 8, at 140-41 (developing a more detailed proposal for educational programs regarding EHR databases).
368 DARRELL HUFF, HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS 8 (1954).
369 Id. at 9.
370 von Elm, Erik et al., The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: Guidelines for Reporting Observational Studies, 61 J. Clinical Epidemiology 344, 346-47 (2008).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
371 See Instructions for Authors, BMJ OPEN, http://bmjopen.bmj.com/site/about/guidelines.xhtml (last visited Oct. 15, 2013); JAMA Instructions for Authors, JAMA NETWORK, http://jama.jamanetwork.com/public/instructionsForAuthors.aspx (last updated Sept. 10, 2013); Types of Article and Manuscript Requirements, LANCET, http://www.thelancet.com/lancet-neurology-information-for-authors/article-types-manuscript-requirements (last visited Oct. 15, 2013).
372 Ioannidis, supra note 77, at 696.
373 Twain, Mark, Chapters from my AutobiographyXX, 186 N. Am. Rev. 465, 471 (1907),Google Scholar reprinted in MARK TWAIN, CHAPTERS FROM MY AUTOBIOGRAPHY ch. 20, at 471 (Shelley Fisher Fishkin ed., Oxford Univ. Press 1996).
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