On September 15, the United States took concrete steps to shift its security and defense focus to the Indo-Pacific region by announcing a new “enhanced trilateral security partnership” with the United Kingdom and Australia.Footnote ¹ The initial focus of the so-called AUKUS alliance is an agreement to share nuclear-powered submarine technology with Australia.Footnote ² The announcement sparked an immediate reaction in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. Most notably, securing nuclear-powered submarines prompted Australia to cancel an agreement with France for diesel-powered submarines,Footnote ³ and France reacted furiously, recalling its ambassadors from both the United States and Australia.Footnote ⁴ Although the announcement of the alliance made no direct mention of China, the inference that it addresses Chinese power in the region is unavoidable, and China warned that the alliance, and particularly the submarine agreement, could accelerate an arms race.Footnote ⁵

The AUKUS announcement builds on nearly a decade of efforts to increase U.S. focus on Asia and the Pacific. In 2011, the Obama administration announced “America's pivot toward the Asia Pacific,” citing “winding down” of operations in Iraq and “a transition in Afghanistan.”Footnote ⁶ Competing concerns, including, for example, countering the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ensured that the “pivot” remained incomplete.Footnote ⁷ The Trump administration also focused on the Indo-Pacific region and particularly on China, including imposing wide-ranging tariffs in response to allegations of unfair trade practices by China.Footnote ⁸

Since taking office, the Biden administration has worked systematically to shore up strategic alliances in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. In remarks in March 2021, Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized “the need to engage China from a position of strength,” an approach that “requires working with allies and partners, not denigrating them, because our combined weight is much harder for China to ignore.”Footnote ⁹ To that end, the United States and United Kingdom announced the “New Atlantic Charter” in June to “defend the principles, values, and institutions of democracy” among other things,Footnote ¹⁰ and the Biden administration has resolved several trade disputes with Europe, removing irritants in the Atlantic alliances.Footnote ¹¹ The Biden administration has also strengthened relationships in the Indo-Pacific region by working closely with the “Quad,” which includes the United States, Australia, Japan, and India, to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, as well as climate change and other shared challenges.Footnote ¹² In a joint statement following their first in-person meeting in September, the Quad leaders emphasized their commitment “to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond,” and noted that they “stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states.”Footnote ¹³

The AUKUS announcement appears to mark a serious shift in U.S. focus. In announcing the partnership, the AUKUS leaders resolved “to deepen diplomatic, security, and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region” and emphasized “interoperability.”Footnote ¹⁴

The first stage of the AUKUS agreement focuses on delivering nuclear-powered submarine capabilities to Australia.Footnote ¹⁵ In light of the planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, Australia withdrew from a $66 billion agreement with France for the purchase of diesel-powered submarines.Footnote ¹⁶ Reports suggest that the Australian government feared that the diesel submarines would be obsolete by the completion of the deal, possibly as late as 2036.Footnote ¹⁷ The nuclear-powered submarines that the United States and United Kingdom will provide can remain underwater longer without surfacing, giving them an improved ability to monitor activity by China.Footnote ¹⁸ The AUKUS deal will be the first time that the United States has agreed to transfer its nuclear propulsion technology since sharing it with the United Kingdom in 1958, and Australia will be the first non-nuclear weapons country to obtain such submarines.Footnote ¹⁹

Although the pledged submarines are nuclear powered, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States reiterated their commitment to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The AUKUS leaders’ statement noted that “Australia remains committed to fulfilling all of its obligations as a non-nuclear weapons state” and the three countries “are deeply committed to upholding our leadership on global non-proliferation.”Footnote ²⁰ In a press statement, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison firmly stated that “Australia has no plans to acquire nuclear weapons and this proposal will remain consistent with Australia's longstanding commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.”Footnote ²¹

The AUKUS announcement envisions an eighteen-month period to “seek an optimal pathway to deliver” nuclear-powered capabilities to Australia.Footnote ²² President Biden emphasized that the governments will use the eighteen-month period “to determine every element of this program—from workforce, to training requirements, to production timelines, to safeguards and nonproliferation measures, and to nuclear stewardship and safety—to ensure full compliance with each of our nation's commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”Footnote ²³

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) imposes obligations on both nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states.Footnote ²⁴ The treaty requires non-nuclear weapons states like Australia to “accept safeguards” negotiated and agreed to with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify its “fulfilment of its obligations assumed under this Treaty with a view to preventing diversion of nuclear energy from peaceful uses to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.”Footnote ²⁵ The treaty obligates all parties, including nuclear-weapons states, “not to provide: (a) source or special fissionable material, or (b) equipment or material especially designed or prepared for the processing, use or production of special fissionable material, to any non-nuclear-weapon State for peaceful purposes, unless the source or special fissionable material shall be subject to” IAEA safeguards.Footnote ²⁶ Both the United States and the United Kingdom use weapons-grade highly enriched uranium to power their nuclear submarines,Footnote ²⁷ and the AUKUS countries have already begun to work with the IAEA to ensure that the submarine deal meets their NPT obligations.Footnote ²⁸ IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi noted that the countries had informed the IAEA of their plans and pledged that “[t]he IAEA will engage with them on this matter in line with its statutory mandate, and in accordance with their respective safeguards agreements with the Agency.”Footnote ²⁹

Domestically, the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 authorizes international cooperation, including agreements for sharing of nuclear material for civilian and military applications, pursuant to certain conditions. In particular, the Act allows sharing with non-nuclear-weapon states subject to IAEA safeguards,Footnote ³⁰ and it allows the president to authorize the transfer to other countries of nuclear material for military applications when he determines that such cooperation “will promote . . . the common defense and security.”Footnote ³¹ The Act also includes a report-and-wait provision whereby the executive must submit a proposed cooperation agreement to relevant congressional committees and Congress has sixty days to pass a joint resolution disapproving the agreement.Footnote ³² Pursuant to this provision, Biden transmitted to Congress on December 1 an agreement with the United Kingdom and Australia for “the Exchange of Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information.”Footnote ³³

To date, AUKUS has received bipartisan support, rendering congressional disapproval of the agreement unlikely. House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) Chairman Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) tweeted that he “welcome[s] this step to bolster cooperation with our allies Australia and the UK in the pivotal Indo-Pacific region” and “will be engaging closely with the @White House and our allies & partners to preserve safety and security for all.”Footnote ³⁴ HFAC Ranking Member Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) called the alliance a “welcome step” that “will help deter [China's] belligerent ambitions.”Footnote ³⁵ After a meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison stated that “we received overwhelming support” for the submarine deal.Footnote ³⁶

Internationally, reactions to the announcement of the alliance were mixed. France reacted angrily to the announcement of the deal and to Australia's cancellation of its contract for French submarines. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the actions a “stab in the back” and claimed that “this unilateral, sudden and unforeseeable decision very much recalls what Mr. Trump would do.”Footnote ³⁷ French President Emmanuel Macron recalled France's ambassadors from Australia and the United States and cancelled a Washington, D.C. gala meant to celebrate the long-standing U.S.-French alliance.Footnote ³⁸ While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested that France “donnez-moi un break” and “prenez un grip,”Footnote ³⁹ the European Union has expressed support for France. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “called the treatment of France ‘unacceptable,’”Footnote ⁴⁰ and EU High Representative Josep Borrell criticized the lack of European inclusion in the alliance and called for “[m]ore cooperation, more coordination, less fragmentation” in the Indo-Pacific region.Footnote ⁴¹ According to a senior official, the United States had expected Australia to handle the cancellation of the French deal,Footnote ⁴² and the United States has since taken steps to repair its relationship with France. In a joint statement released on September 22, Biden and Macron agreed that “the situation would have benefited from open consultations among allies,” and Macron agreed to return the French ambassador to the United States.Footnote ⁴³ When Biden and Macron met in person in October, Biden acknowledged that “‘what we did was clumsy.’”Footnote ⁴⁴

U.S. allies in the region reacted more positively. In a call between the Japanese and Australian foreign ministers, Japan's Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu “welcomed the security cooperation between Australia and the United States” and both the Australian and Japanese foreign ministers reaffirmed their commitment to “the realization of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”Footnote ⁴⁵ Although New Zealand prohibits nuclear-powered submarines in its ports and was not asked to join the alliance, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern nonetheless “welcome[d] the increased engagement of the UK and US in the region and reiterate[d] our collective objective needs to be the delivery of peace and stability and the preservation of the international rules-based system.”Footnote ⁴⁶

China criticized the alliance and the submarine deal specifically. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that the deal “undermined regional peace and stability, aggravated the arms race and hurt international nonproliferation efforts.”Footnote ⁴⁷ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi cited three hidden dangers to AUKUS and the nuclear deal: resurgence of the Cold War, an arms race, and nuclear proliferation and accused AUKUS of “fueling conflict and confrontation, [and] endangering peace and stability.”Footnote ⁴⁸ North Korea's reaction was similar to China's. Through a state news agency, a North Korean Foreign Ministry official said, “‘These are extremely undesirable and dangerous acts which will upset the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region and trigger off a chain of nuclear arms race.’”Footnote ⁴⁹

The long-term shape of the alliance and its ramifications remain to be seen. In addition to the submarine deal, the leaders’ statement announcing AUKUS said that the countries will “embark on further trilateral collaboration under AUKUS to enhance our joint capabilities and interoperability,” including with respect to “cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.”Footnote ⁵⁰ The exclusion of European countries, other than the United Kingdom, from the alliance may push the European Union to pursue “strategic autonomy” to navigate between the United States and China—an approach advocated by Macron in particular.Footnote ⁵¹Although the United States has said that it will not extend nuclear submarine technology to other allies such as South Korea,Footnote ⁵² the AUKUS deal is fueling speculation about increased military spending by states across the Indo-Pacific region.Footnote ⁵³