The paper develops an adaptive model of perishable commodity dissipation based on the individual's price expectations and risk perception. A two-step, state-space procedure for modeling nonstationary time series is presented. The method combines an impulse response model for estimating deterministic components with an innovations model for the remaining stationary stochastic noise. Combined parameters are used to generate forecasts and to derive a measure of risk in a nonstationary price environment. Defined as the variance (covariance) of out-of-sample forecast error, the measure of risk is the difference between the historical estimate of the stationary noise auto-covariance and the variance (covariance) of out-of-sample forecasts. The optimal marketing strategy for a hypothetical salmon processor who sells to Japanese wholesalers is developed to illustrate the model. The solution is obtained using quadratic programming algorithm.

Radial and nonradial measures of technical efficiency are calculated empirically for Florida vegetable farms using DEA (data envelopment analysis) techniques. Use of the nonradial measures to calculate overuse of chemical inputs by inefficient farmers is demonstrated and the potential for reduced environmental loading of pesticides and fertilizers by improving efficiency is evaluated.

In this study, moving average price stabilization schemes were analyzed under the assumption of rational expectations. It was shown that moving average price schemes may induce cyclical behaviour into market prices where no cyclical pattern previously existed. Moving average price stabilization schemes are important to Canadian agricultural policy analysis because they are a characteristic of stabilization programs in Canada. Indeed, the Agricultural Stabilization Act, introduced in 1975, and the Gross Revenue Insurance Program, introduced in 1991, use moving average prices to calculate returns to producers.

Social desirability (SD) represents the problem of subjects responding with social norms rather than individual values. This paper briefly surveys the SD literature and considers its relevance for contingent valuation (CV) studies. In an empirical study, undergraduate students were administered the Mariowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale, as well as CV questions. High SD scores were hypothesized to imply a greater likelihood of offering a protest reason for a zero bid and to increase bids for socially desirable commodities. While all hypotheses were not supported, the empirical results suggest that SD can influence CV responses and should not be dismissed prematurely.

Decision support systems are generally geared to short-term tactical decision making. As an alternative, this paper develops a mathematical programming model to evaluate long-term strategic alternatives in the context of farm-level agricultural production where a broiler farm considers long-term implications of diversification into commercial aquaculture. The model considers a ten-year strategic planning horizon, incorporates financial risk and return considerations, and accommodates capacity variations. Results indicate that a diversification strategy significantly increases farm profitability over a strategic planning horizon while simultaneously maintaining financial risk below a predetermined tolerance level and return on investment above a predetermined level.

Dynamic programming techniques were used to evaluate the effects of alternative levels of normal flex acreage requirements on a Midwestern corn-soybean farm and a Southeastern cotton farm. Results indicate that increasing normal flex acres from the current level of 15 percent to 35 percent would provide inducement for farmers in both regions to plant more soybeans. In general, the cotton farm incurs considerably higher expected losses from the change. Thus, there are unequal regional consequences of such a policy change.

The random nature of soil loss under alternative land-use practices should be an important consideration of soil conservation planning and analysis under risk. Chance constrained programming models can provide information on the trade-offs among pre-determined tolerance levels of soil loss, probability levels of satisfying the tolerance levels, and economic profits or losses resulting from soil conservation to soil conservation policy makers. When using chance constrained programming models, the distribution of factors being constrained must be evaluated. If random variables follow a log-normal distribution, the normality assumption, which is generally used in the chance constrained programming models, can bias the results.

Policies to reduce nitrate leaching are evaluated using a mixed integer linear programming model of a representative Michigan cash grain farm. At spring 1993 prices, elimination of the current deficiency payment program is found to be more efficient at reducing leaching than a nitrogen input tax, a tax credit on biologically fixed nitrogen, a rotation payment, or obligatory use of the Integrated Farm Management Program Option (IFMPO). However, elimination of the deficiency payment program would significantly reduce farm income. Modeling risk management and nitrate leaching dynamics are useful extensions of this research, as is estimating the benefits from averting nitrate leaching.

Using yield data for a sample of 123 dryland wheat producers in Montana, the effects of three area yield contracts, including the contract currently offered by the United States Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and two individual yield contracts on individual farm yield variability, are examined. The results indicate that while the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation area yield contract provides all farmers in the sample with some protection against yield variability, a simpler, actuarially equivalent “almost ideal” area yield contract provides substantially larger reductions in yield variability. However, actuarially equivalent individual yield contracts provide levels of protection against yield variability similar to those obtained under the “almost ideal” area yield contract at much lower premiums.

An imperfect competition model of the U.S. milk market is developed for analyzing the impacts of dairy policy deregulation. Estimated degree-of-competition parameters indicate that the U.S. milk market has become more competitive over time. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by showing the relative differences of dynamic simulation results of the imperfect competition model with the results of a conventional exogenous fluid differential model.

The Conservation Reserve Program reduced available cropland in the United States by 34 million acres under the first nine signup periods (1986–1990). Among these are ten million acres with wheat base and four million acres with corn base, which could potentially produce 288 million bushels of wheat and 340 million bushels of corn per year upon contract expiration. The impacts of expiring CRP contacts on the production and prices of wheat and corn in the United States are estimated. Based on past production practices and post-CRP land-use intentions of contract holders, 48.2% of base acres enrolled in CRP will return to production. Under this scenario, wheat prices will decline by more than 7% and corn prices by more than 2% by 2000, unless ARP levels, normal flex acres percent, or target prices are changed.

Metropolitan agriculture is economically important, especially in the Northeast. While faced with substantial economic and regulatory obstacles, commercial farming in urban areas is surviving and even prospering. In terms of standard models of agriculture in economic development, this is a puzzle. But more detailed, spatial economic models indicate how labor-intensive production of perishable commodities in urbanized areas can make economic sense, especially when coupled with environmental amenities that farming generates for nonfarm people. At the same time, environmental disamenities of agriculture are larger in densely populated areas. The political economy outcomes have tended to be favorable to continued farming, albeit with increased regulation. Nonetheless, many questions remain about the dynamics of agricultural adjustment to urbanization, and the possible steady-state mix of farm and nonfarm activities.