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Modeling Advertising Carryover in Fluid Milk: Comparison of Alternative Lag Specifications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

Meenakshi Venkateswaran ,
Henry W. Kinnucan  and
Hui-Shung Chang
Meenakshi Venkateswaran
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University
Henry W. Kinnucan
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University
Hui-Shung Chang
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University
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Abstract

The performance of restricted estimators such as Almon and Shiller in modeling advertising carryover is tested and compared to the unrestricted OLS estimator, using 1971–1988 monthly New York City fluid milk market data. Results indicate that in the absence of autocorrelation and multicollinearity among the lagged advertising variables, the unrestricted OLS estimator is still the preferred estimator, based on Mean Square Error and Root Mean Square Percent Error criteria. In this case, the Almon and Shiller estimators perform equally well, although next only to the OLS estimator. In the presence of autocorrelation or multicollinearity however, the restricted estimators may outperform the OLS estimator, in a MSE sense, with the flexible Shiller estimator (which subsumes the Almon) being more desirable.

Type
Articles
Information
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review , Volume 22 , Issue 1 , April 1993 , pp. 10 - 19
Copyright
Copyright © 1993 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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