Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T16:04:26.850Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Air transport demand estimates for UK domestic and international routes Part 7—demand models*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2016

A. P. Ellison
A. P. Ellison*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Queen Mary College
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Demand forecasting is a hazardous business, particularly in civil aviation. Any technique which can improve the accuracy of forecasts will aid the development of the industry, for demand fluctuations are a prime source of aviation's instability. If these fluctuations could be predicted accurately the consequences of wide demand fluctuations could be minimised, but this rarely happens. Many of the causes of the fluctuations are outside the control of the forecaster. Otherwise, ignorance of the relationship between cause and effect is the source of inaccurate predictions. An approach to forecasting, which is designed to overcome the latter, is the application of econometric models. Many of the econometric models in civil aviation are still primitive, yet, much has been expected of them.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 76 , Issue 736 , April 1972 , pp. 261 - 267
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 1972 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Part II will be published in the May issue of the Aeronautical Journal.

References

1. Ellison, A. P. Forecasting Passenger Air Demand. Flight International, 8th July 1971.Google Scholar
2. Morrisett, I. Some recent uses of the elasticity of substitution—a survey. Econometrica, 1953.Google Scholar
3. Theil, H. Qualities, prices and budget enquiries, Review of Economics and Statistics. 1951-52.Google Scholar
4. Houthakker, H. S. Compensated changes in quantities and qualities consumed, Review of Economic Studies. 1951-52.Google Scholar
5. Houthakker, H. S. and Prais, S. J. Les Variations de Qualite dans les Budgets de Famille, Economic Applique. 1952.Google Scholar
6. Brems, H. Product equilibrium under monopolistic competition, Cambridge, Mass. 1951.Google Scholar
7. Lancaster, K. A new approach to consumer theory, Journal of Political Economy. 1966.Google Scholar
8. Adeleman, I. and Griliches, Z. On an index of quality change, American Statistical Association Journal. September 1961.Google Scholar
9. Stopher, P. R. PhD Thesis, University College, London. 1967.Google Scholar
10. Baumol, W. J. and Quant, R. E. The demand for abstract transport modes. Theory and measurement. Journal of Regional Science, Vol 6, No 2. 1966.Google Scholar
11. Quant, R. E. Estimation of modal splits, Transportation Research, Vol 2. 1968.Google Scholar
12. Issard, W. Methods of regional analysis. Wiley, 1960.Google Scholar