Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T15:32:25.305Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Air transport demand estimates for UK domestic and international routes Part 2—estimates*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2016

A. P. Ellison
A. P. Ellison*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Queen Mary’s College
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

This section deals with the application of models developed in Part I to particular UK domestic and international routes. Most of the information used is in time series, a form of data which brings with it many problems. As well as the usual ones such as multicollinearity, serial correlation and simultaneity, the civil aviation market has its own characteristics which bring with it estimating problems. Special attention is paid to short- and long-run responses to income and price changes, to means of explaining secular trends in growth, and causes of fluctuations. When possible, generalisations concerning the size of parameters and the appropriateness of certain model forms will be made. The approach however is to treat routes and route groups as unique, with different passenger characteristics, development and histories. Such differences require different approaches and different models. Much of the discussion will be concerned with discussing the appropriateness of one or other model to routes of certain characteristics.

Type
Supplementary Paper
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 76 , Issue 737 , May 1972 , pp. 327 - 341
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 1972 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Part I was published in the April issue of the Aeronautical Journal.

References

1. Evans, A. E. PhD Thesis. Univ. of Birmingham, 1968.Google Scholar
2. Bain, A. D. Growth of television ownership in the UK. Camb. Univ. Press, 1964.Google Scholar
3. Brown, S. L. and Watkins, W. S. The demand for airtravel: A regression study of time series and crosssectional data in the US domestic market. Highway Research Board No 213, 1966.Google Scholar
4. Wright, T. P. Some economic factors in air transport. Aeronautical Engineering Review, April 1957, pp. 45–51.Google Scholar
5. Fisher, F. A Priori information and time series analysis. N. Holland, 1962.Google Scholar
6. Nerlove, M. and Balestre, P. Pooling cross section and time series data in the estimation of a dynamic model: The demand for natural gas. Econometrica, Vol 34, No 3, 1966.Google Scholar
7. Straszheim, M. R. The international airline industry. Brookings Inst., 1969.Google Scholar
8. Characteristics and forecasts of demand in Europe: Aeroport de Paris. Société d’Etudes Techniques et Economiques, Iseteci.Google Scholar
9. The Port of NY Authority. Forecast of US domestic air passenger market 1955-75, 1957.Google Scholar
10. Wold, H. and Jureen, L. Demand analysis. Wiley, 1953.Google Scholar
11. Ellison, A. P. and Stafford, T. Intercity passenger transport estimates for the UK—A paper given at the Econometrics Conference, Amsterdam, September 1968.Google Scholar
12. Mogridge, M. J. H. Predicting car ownership. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol No 1, 1967.Google Scholar
13. Long, W. City characteristics and the demand for interurban air travel. Land Economics, XLIV, May 1968.Google Scholar
14. National income and expenditure of the UK 1954-1969.Google Scholar
15. Nicholson, R. J. Economic statistics and economic problems. Chapter 8, McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
16. Commission on the third London Airport. Papers and proceedings, Vol VII.Google Scholar
17. HIBBS. Transport for passengers. Hobart Paper 23, 1963.Google Scholar
18. Mincer, J. Market prices, opportunity costs and income effects in measurement in economics: Studies in mathematical economics and econometrics in memory of Y G. Runfeld-Stanford, 1963.Google Scholar
19. Kraft, G. The role of advertising costs in the airline industry in transport economics. NBEB, 1965.Google Scholar
20. Broster, E. J. Railway passenger receipts and fares policy. Economic Journal, 1937, pp. 451-64.Google Scholar
21. Griliches, Z. A note on serial correlation bias in estimates of distributed lags. Econometrica, Vol 29, No 1, 1961.Google Scholar
22. Malinvaud, E. Statistical methods in econometrics, pp. 458–467.Google Scholar
23. Johnstone, J. Econometric methods. McGraw-Hill, 1963.Google Scholar
24. Gamey, R. Long range forecasting of domestic and international boarding passengers at Canadian airports by multiple regression analysis. MA Thesis, Univ. of British Columbia, 1969, pp. 76–78.Google Scholar
25. Ellison, A. P. The Edwards report on civil aviation in the 1970s. Journal of the Royal Aeronautical Society, June 1970.Google Scholar