Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-01T07:20:52.517Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Probabilistic design and structural fatigue

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2016

F. H. Hooke*
Affiliation:
Aeronautical Research Laboratories, Melbourne

Extract

Probabilism is the 16th century philosophical doctrine that certainty is unattainable but that belief and action must be governed by probability. As long as the existence, interpretation or application of a law remains doubtful, one may follow his own inclination, on the ground that a doubtful law cannot impose a certain obligation. But the subject “probabilistic design” embraces the idea of conceiving or planning of a thing so as to be fit for its purpose, more likely than not, but with less than absolute certainty. The designed “thing” is to be reliable. The lay meaning of “reliable” is trustworthy, predictable and good, and carries an implication that at successive points in time the “thing” will or could be somehow exposed to its purposed use and will successfully fit its purpose every time or most times.

Type
Technical Notes
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 1975 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. Hooke, F. H. A comparison of reliability and conventional estimation of safe fatigue life and safe inspection intervals—in “Advanced approaches to fatigue evaluation”, Sixth ICAF Symposium, Miami Beach, May 1971 (NASA SP 309).Google Scholar
2. Ferstat, Q. V-g Records from Mustang aircraft in training. ARL Note SM 192, 1951.Google Scholar
3. Gilbert, D. On the mathematical theory of suspension bridges,with tables for facilitatingtheir construction. Roy. Soc. Phil. Trans., 1826.Google Scholar
4. Pugsley, A. The well balanced structure. Journal of the Royal Aeronautical Society, No 662, Vol 70, p 304, February 1966.Google Scholar
5. Lundberg, Bo K. The quantitative statistical approach totheaircraft fatigue problem. Full ScaleFatigue Testing of Aircraft Structures, p 393.Pergamon 1961.Google Scholar
6. Atkinson, R. J. Permissible design values and vari ability test factors, para. 5. ARC R & M 2877, 1955.Google Scholar
7. Marmion, L. and Starkey, D. Statistical strength tests of Typhoon semi-span tailDlanes. ARC 8258, October 1944.Google Scholar
8. Payne, A. O. Determination of the fatigue resistance of aircraft wings by full scale testing. Proc Symposium on Full-scale fatigue testing of aircraft structures, Plantema and Schijve eds, pp 76132, Pergamon Press, 1961.Google Scholar
9. Parish, H. E. Fatigue test results and analysis of 42 Piston Provost Wings. Ministry of AviationS&T Memo 1/65, April 1965.Google Scholar
10. Hooke, F. H. Repeated loading on structures—Discussion. A. G. Pugsley, Symposium on Failure of metals by fatigue, Melbourne (MUP), 1946.Google Scholar