Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T11:30:11.414Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

21st-Century civil aviation: Is it on course or is it over-confident and complacent? – thoughts on the conundrum of aviation and the environment

Part of: Sustainable Aerospace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 January 2017

D.I.A. Poll
D.I.A. Poll*
Affiliation:
Aerospace Engineering, Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK
*
[email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Aviation brings great commercial and social benefits and, as the global economy develops, the demand for air transport is expected to grow. However, aviation also contributes to climate change and there is increasing international pressure to limit mean global temperature rise. Therefore, the future success of aviation is likely to depend upon the industry's ability to hold its environmental impact within politically acceptable limits. This paper describes aviation's interaction with climate and sets out, in broad terms, the challenge facing the industry. The prospects for mitigating the adverse effects by advanced technology working through aircraft design and manufacture are assessed and some potential restrictions imposed by airport infrastructure are identified. Some consideration is also given to the practicalities imposed by airline economics and the likely impact of the recent ICAO regulations, plus the proposed global-based market measures scheme for aviation carbon offset. It is argued that the environmental problem is not just about carbon dioxide emissions and that aircraft technology improvement alone is unlikely to provide a complete solution. The observation that, in current operations, the total fuel used is almost twice the minimum required suggests a need to recognise a broader ownership of the problem and broader responsibility for the solution. However, improvements in the overall system efficiency will probably need to be driven by additional regulation and the imposition of other financial measures.

The overall conclusion is that the actions currently being taken and currently being proposed are probably not sufficient in themselves to meet the challenge of climate change. However, it appears that there is more that can be done and, provided that action is taken soon, there are some grounds for optimism that aviation will still be able to meet the needs of society in the 21st century.

Keywords

aviationenvironmental impactflight physicscarbon dioxidecontrailsaircraft designeconomics
Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 121 , Issue 1236 , February 2017 , pp. 115 - 140
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This paper is a written version of the inaugural von Karman lecture, delivered to the Society's Brussels Branch on the 28 September 2016.

References

REFERENCES

1. International Air Transport Association, Available at: http://www.iata.org/Pages/default.aspx.Google Scholar
2. Aviation Benefits Beyond Boarders, Air transport action group, Available at: http://www.atag.org/our-publications/latest.html.Google Scholar
3. Ascend Commercial Aviation Update, Ascend Flightglobal Consultancy Webinar, 8 September 2015.Google Scholar
4. Mapping Demand 2016-2035, Airbus global market forecast 2016, Available at: http://www.airbus.com/company/market/global-market-forecast-2016-2035/.Google Scholar
5. Current Market Outlook, Boeing, Available at: http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/about-our-market/assets/downloads/cmo_print_2016_final_updated.pdf . Google Scholar
6. Poll, D.I.A. The optimum aeroplane and beyond, Aeronautical J, March 2009, 113, (1141), pp 151–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
7. Trenberth, K.E. and Smith, L. The mass of the atmosphere; a constraint on global analyses, J American Meteorological Soc, March 2005. Available at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-3299.1.Google Scholar
8. Joos, F. et al. Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013, 13, pp 2793–2825, Available at: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2793/2013/acp-13-2793-2013.html.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
9. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Available at: http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/.Google Scholar
10. Lee, D. et al. Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century, Atmospheric Environment, 2009, 43, pp 3520–3537.Google Scholar
11. Schumann, U. On the conditions for contrail formation from aircraft exhausts, Meteorology Zeitschrift, February 1996, N.F. 5, pp 4–23.Google Scholar
12. Penner, J. Forcing associated with contrail dehydration and soot emissions in a global climate model. 5th UTIAS International Workshop on Aviation and Climate Change, 18–20 May 2015, Toronto, Canada.Google Scholar
13. Burkhardt, U. and Kärcher, B. Global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus, Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1, pp 54–58.Google Scholar
14. Peters, P.M., Middel, J. and Hoolhorst, A. Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft; an overview of historical and future trends. NLR-CR-2005-669, November 2005, National Aerospace Laboratory, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
15. Torenbeek, E. Advanced Aircraft Design: Conceptual Design, Analysis and Optimization of Subsonic Civil Airplanes. 2013, Wiley, UK.Google Scholar
16. Jenkinson, L.R., Simpkin, P. and Rhodes, D. Civil Jet Aircraft Design -Airports Database. Available at: http://booksite.elsevier.com/9780340741528/appendices/data-c/airports.xls.Google Scholar
17. Certification Specifications and Guidance Material for Aerodromes Design. European Aviation Safety Agency, CS-ADR-DSN, Issue 2, Cologne, Germany, January 2015.Google Scholar
18. Standards and Recommendations for Airport Design. Federal Aviation Administration, Advisory Circular 150/5300-13A, 2014, US Department of Transportation, Washington DC, US, 2014.Google Scholar
19. Green, J.E. and Jupp, J.A. CAEP/9-agreed certification requirement for the aircraftCO2 emissions standard: A comment on ICAO Cir 337, Aeronautical J, 2016, 120, pp 693–723.Google Scholar
20. Rutherford, D. and Kharina, A. International civil aviation organization CO2 standard for new aircraft. International Council on Clean Transport, San Francisco, US, February 2016. Available at: http://www.theicct.org/icao-proposed-co2-standard-update-201602.Google Scholar