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Predictive Modeling for Site Detection Using Remotely Sensed Phenological Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 January 2017

Scott Detrich Kirk ,
Amy E. Thompson  and
Christopher D. Lippitt
Scott Detrich Kirk
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131 ([email protected])
Amy E. Thompson
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131 ([email protected])
Christopher D. Lippitt
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131 ([email protected])
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Abstract

This paper examines the potential of remote sensing–derived metrics of vegetation phenology and a Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network to model the most likely locations of large, agglomerated archaeological sites. Focusing on two different environments in central New Mexico, the Galisteo Basin and the Sandia-Manzano Mountain range, this pilot study distinguishes between archaeological sites and their surroundings based on differential growth in vegetation. Using data derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper, a time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices were created to characterize vegetation phenology in the study areas. Distinguishing between archaeological sites and their surroundings, the neural network was trained on a series of known sites to develop an output activation layer indicating the possible locations of other, previously unknown sites. This output activation layer, treated as a site suitability model, was validated using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve using known sites excluded from the training procedure. Results show promise in large, open areas such as basin environments. While differences in vegetation type have relatively little effect, differences in elevation, or more directly the changes in phenology that go along with them, negatively impact the ability to infer the presence of archaeological sites using this approach.

Este artículo examina la potencial de métricas de teledetección de fenología vegetal y una red neural de Multi-Layer Perceptron para modelar las ubicaciones más probables de sitios arqueológicas grandes y aglomerados. Este estudio preliminar enfoque en dos localidades diferentes en el centro de Nueva México, el Cuenco de Galisteo y la cordillera de Sandia-Manzano y distingue entre sitios arqueológicos y sus entornos basado en crecimiento diferencial en vegetación. Un serie temporal del índice de vegetación diferencial normalizado (NDVI) fue creada de datos derivado de Landsat Thematic Mapper para caracterizar la fenología de las plantas en los áreas de estudio. La red neural distingue entre sitios arqueológicos y sus entornos y fue entrenando en un serie de sitios conocidos para desarrollar una capa de activación de salida que indique las ubicaciones posibles de sitios desconocidos. Tratado por un modelo de idoneidad del sitio, la capa de activación de salida fue validada con sitios conocidos excluidos del proceso de entrenamiento usando el área de operador receptor característico bajo de la curva. Los resultados son prometedores para áreas abiertas tal como cuencos. Diferencias en vegetación tienen relativamente poco efecto. Sin embargo, diferencias en elevación y los cambios concomitantes en fenología afectan negativamente la utilidad de este enfoque para inferir sitios arqueológicos.

Type
Research Article
Information
Advances in Archaeological Practice , Volume 4 , Issue 1 , February 2016 , pp. 87 - 101
Copyright
Copyright © Society for American Archaeology 2016

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