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Radiocarbon Data, Bayesian Modeling, and Alternative Historical Frameworks

A Case Study From the US Southeast*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 November 2017

Jacob Lulewicz
Jacob Lulewicz*
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, 250A Baldwin Hall Jackson St., Athens, GA 30602, USA ([email protected])
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Abstract

This article employs comparative Bayesian chronology building to formally evaluate the quality of a legacy radiocarbon dataset from the southern Appalachian region of the southeastern United States and to interrogate the assumptions that form the basis of the extant chronological narrative for the region. By incorporating alternative assumptions into Bayesian models, a number of alternative chronological frameworks are developed and compared to one another to yield insights into the development of sociopolitical complexity across southern Appalachia between AD 600 and 1600. The treatment of alternative chronological models as working hypotheses concerning the timing, tempo, and nature of sociopolitical transformations makes use of legacy radiocarbon datasets in developing new research trajectories including the encouragement of renewed field- and lab-based investigations. As such, this article provides a case study to illustrate the value of Bayesian chronological modeling in assessing legacy radiocarbon datasets and reevaluating extant chronological frameworks. Beyond initial evaluation of extant datasets and narratives, the methods and procedures outlined below can be used to form baseline models against which newly acquired data can be formally incorporated and interpreted.

Este trabajo emplea la construcción comparativa de cronologías bayesianas para evaluar formalmente la calidad de un viejo conjunto de datos de radiocarbono procedente de la región de los Apalaches del Sur, en el sureste de los Estados Unidos, e interrogar los supuestos que forman la base de la narrativa cronológica existente para la región. Mediante la incorporación de suposiciones alternativas en modelos bayesianos, se desarrollan y comparan una serie de marcos cronológicos alternativos para proporcionar información sobre el desarrollo de la complejidad sociopolítica en los Apalaches del Sur entre 600 y 1600 dC. El tratamiento de modelos cronológicos alternativos como hipótesis de trabajo sobre el momento, el ritmo y la naturaleza de las transformaciones sociopolíticas hace uso de viejos conjuntos de datos de radiocarbono en el desarrollo de nuevas trayectorias de investigación, incluyendo el estímulo de nuevas investigaciones en campo y en laboratorio. Como tal, este articulo ofrece un caso de estudio para ilustrar el valor del modelado cronológico bayesiano en la evaluación de viejos conjuntos de datos de radiocarbono y la reevaluación de marcos cronológicos existentes. Más allá de la evaluación inicial de conjuntos de datos y narrativas existentes, los métodos y procedimientos descritos a continuación pueden utilizarse para formar modelos de referencia para la incorporación e interpretación de datos recién adquiridos.

Type
Articles
Information
Advances in Archaeological Practice , Volume 6 , Issue 1 , February 2018 , pp. 58 - 71
Copyright
Copyright 2017 © Society for American Archaeology 

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References

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