The main purpose of this paper is to define and characterize random fields of bounded variation, that is, random fields with sample paths in the space of functions of bounded variation, and to study their mean total variation. Simple formulas are obtained for the mean total directional variation of random fields, based on known formulas for the directional variation of deterministic functions. It is also shown that the mean variation of random fields with stationary increments is proportional to the Lebesgue measure, and an expression of the constant of proportionality, called the variation intensity, is established. This expression shows, in particular, that the variation intensity depends only on the family of two-dimensional distributions of the stationary increment random field. When restricting to random sets, the obtained results give generalizations of well-known formulas from stochastic geometry and mathematical morphology. The interest of these general results is illustrated by computing the variation intensities of several classical stationary random field and random set models, namely Gaussian random fields and excursion sets, Poisson shot noises, Boolean models, dead leaves models, and random tessellations.

We investigate queueing networks in a random environment. The impact of the evolving environment on the network is by changing service capacities (upgrading and/or degrading, breakdown, repair) when the environment changes its state. On the other side, customers departing from the network may enforce the environment to jump immediately. This means that the environment is nonautonomous and therefore results in a rather complex two-way interaction, especially if the environment is not itself Markov. To react to the changes of the capacities we implement randomised versions of the well-known deterministic rerouteing schemes 'skipping' (jump-over protocol) and `reflection' (repeated service, random direction). Our main result is an explicit expression for the joint stationary distribution of the queue-lengths vector and the environment which is of product form.

We construct Cheeger-type bounds for the second eigenvalue of a substochastic transition probability matrix in terms of the Markov chain's conductance and metastability (and vice versa) with respect to its quasistationary distribution, extending classical results for stochastic transition matrices.

Working in the infinite plane R2, consider a Poisson process of black points with intensity 1, and an independent Poisson process of red points with intensity λ. We grow a disc around each black point until it hits the nearest red point, resulting in a random configuration Aλ, which is the union of discs centered at the black points. Next, consider a fixed disc of area n in the plane. What is the probability pλ(n) that this disc is covered by Aλ? We prove that if λ3nlogn = y then, for sufficiently large n, e-8π2y ≤ pλ(n) ≤ e-2π2y/3. The proofs reveal a new and surprising phenomenon, namely, that the obstructions to coverage occur on a wide range of scales.

We give a personal (and we hope, not too idiosyncratic) view of how our subject of probability theory has developed during the last half-century, and the author in tandem with it.

We give a criterion for unlimited growth with positive probability for a large class of multidimensional stochastic models. As a by-product, we recover the necessary and sufficient conditions for recurrence and transience for critical multitype Galton–Watson with immigration processes and also significantly improve some results on multitype size-dependent Galton–Watson processes.

The signature of a coherent system is a useful tool in the study and comparison of lifetimes of engineered systems. In order to compare two systems of different sizes with respect to their signatures, the smaller system needs to be represented by an equivalent system of the same size as the larger system. In the paper we show how to construct equivalent systems by adding irrelevant components to the smaller system. This leads to simpler proofs of some current key results, and throws new light on the interpretation of mixed systems. We also present a sufficient condition for equivalence of systems of different sizes when restricting to coherent systems. In cases where for a given system there is no equivalent system of smaller size, we characterize the class of lower-sized systems with a signature vector which stochastically dominates the signature of the larger system. This setup is applied to an optimization problem in reliability economics.

A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a Markov renewal process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy-tailed distributions. In particular, the rate function is in general degenerate (it has a nontrivial set of zeros) and not strictly convex. These features show a behaviour highly different from what one may guess with a heuristic Donsker‒Varadhan analysis of the problem.

Queues with advanced reservations are endemic in the real world. In such a queue, the 'arrival' process is an incoming stream of customer 'booking requests', rather than actual customers requiring immediate service. We consider a model with a Poisson booking request process with rate λ. Associated with each request is a pair of independent random variables (Ri, Si) constituting a request for service over a period Si, starting at a time Ri into the future. Our interest is in the probability that a customer will be rejected due to capacity constraints. We present a simulation of a finite-capacity queue in which we record the proportion of rejected customers, and then move to an analysis of a queue with infinitely-many servers. Obviously no customers are rejected in the latter case. However, the event that the arrival of the extra customer will cause the number of customers in the queue to exceed C at some point during its service can be used as a proxy for the event that the customer would have been rejected in a system with finite capacity C. We start by calculating the transient and stationary distributions for some performance measures for the infinite-server queue. By observing that the stationary measure for the bookings diary (that is, the list of customers currently on hand, together with their start times and service times) is the same as the law for the entire sample path of an infinite server queue with a specified nonhomogenous Poisson input process, which we call the bookings queue, we are able to write down expressions for the abovementioned probability that, at some time during a requested service, the number of customers exceeds C. This measure serves as a bound for the probability that an incoming arrival would be refused admission in a system with C servers and, for a well-dimensioned system, it is to be hoped that it is a good approximation. We test the quality of this approximation by comparing our analytical results for the infinite-server case against simulation results for the finite-server case.

This is a case study concerning the rate at which probabilistic coupling occurs for nilpotent diffusions. We focus on the simplest case of Kolmogorov diffusion (Brownian motion together with its time integral or, more generally, together with a finite number of iterated time integrals). We show that in this case there can be no Markovian maximal coupling. Indeed, there can be no efficient Markovian coupling strategy (efficient for all pairs of distinct starting values), where the notion of efficiency extends the terminology of Burdzy and Kendall (2000). Finally, at least in the classical case of a single time integral, it is not possible to choose a Markovian coupling that is optimal in the sense of simultaneously minimizing the probability of failing to couple by time t for all positive t. In recompense for all these negative results, we exhibit a simple efficient non-Markovian coupling strategy.

The self-similar growth-fragmentation equation describes the evolution of a medium in which particles grow and divide as time proceeds, with the growth and splitting of each particle depending only upon its size. The critical case of the equation, in which the growth and division rates balance one another, was considered in Doumic and Escobedo (2015) for the homogeneous case where the rates do not depend on the particle size. Here, we study the general self-similar case, using a probabilistic approach based on Lévy processes and positive self-similar Markov processes which also permits us to analyse quite general splitting rates. Whereas existence and uniqueness of the solution are rather easy to establish in the homogeneous case, the equation in the nonhomogeneous case has some surprising features. In particular, using the fact that certain self-similar Markov processes can enter (0,∞) continuously from either 0 or ∞, we exhibit unexpected spontaneous generation of mass in the solutions.

We consider a time varying analogue of the Erdős–Rényi graph and study the topological variations of its associated clique complex. The dynamics of the graph are stationary and are determined by the edges, which evolve independently as continuous-time Markov chains. Our main result is that when the edge inclusion probability is of the form p=nα, where n is the number of vertices and α∈(-1/k, -1/(k + 1)), then the process of the normalised kth Betti number of these dynamic clique complexes converges weakly to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process as n→∞.

Given a supercritical Galton‒Watson process {Zn} and a positive sequence {εn}, we study the limiting behaviors of ℙ(SZn/Zn≥εn) with sums Sn of independent and identically distributed random variables Xi and m=𝔼[Z1]. We assume that we are in the Schröder case with 𝔼Z1 log Z1<∞ and X1 is in the domain of attraction of an α-stable law with 0<α<2. As a by-product, when Z1 is subexponentially distributed, we further obtain the convergence rate of Zn+1/Zn to m as n→∞.

The Marcinkiewicz strong law, limn→∞(1 / n1/p)∑k=1n(Dk - D) = 0 almost surely with p ∈ (1, 2), is studied for outer products Dk = {XkX̅kT}, where {Xk} and {X̅k} are both two-sided (multivariate) linear processes (with coefficient matrices (Cl), (C̅l) and independent and identically distributed zero-mean innovations {Ξ} and {Ξ̅}). Matrix sequences Cl and C ̅l can decay slowly enough (as |l| → ∞) that {Xk,X ̅k} have long-range dependence, while {Dk} can have heavy tails. In particular, the heavy-tail and long-range-dependence phenomena for {Dk} are handled simultaneously and a new decoupling property is proved that shows the convergence rate is determined by the worst of the heavy tails or the long-range dependence, but not the combination. The main result is applied to obtain a Marcinkiewicz strong law of large numbers for stochastic approximation, nonlinear function forms, and autocovariances.

We consider a class of multi-type particle systems whose structure is similar to that of a contact process and show that additivity is equivalent to the existence of a dual process, extending a result of Harris. We prove a necessary and sufficient condition for the model to preserve positive correlations. We then show that complete convergence on Zd holds for a large subclass of models including the two-stage contact process and a household model, and give examples.

The full-information duration problem with a random number N of objects is considered. These objects appear sequentially and their values Xk are observed, where Xk, independent of N, are independent and identically distributed random variables from a known continuous distribution. The objective of the problem is to find a stopping rule that maximizes the duration of holding a relative maximum (e.g. the kth object is a relative maximum if Xk = max{X1, X2, . . ., Xk}). We assume that N is a random variable with a known upper bound n, so two models, Model 1 and Model 2, can be considered according to whether the planning horizon is N or n. The structure of the optimal rule, which depends on the prior distribution assumed on N, is examined. The monotone rule is defined and a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal rule to be monotone is given for both models. Special attention is paid to the class of priors such that N / n converges, as n → ∞, to a random variable Vm having density fVm(v) = m(1 - v)m-1, 0 ≤ v ≤ 1 for a positive integer m. An interesting feature is that the optimal duration (relative to n) for Model 2 is just (m + 1) times as large as that for Model 1 asymptotically.

For natural integer n, let D n denote the random variable taking the values log d for d dividing n with uniform probability 1/τ(n). Then t↦ℙ(D n ≤n t ) (0≤t≤1) is an arithmetic process with respect to the uniform probability over the first N integers. It is known from previous works that this process converges to a limit law and that the same holds for various extensions. We investigate the generalized moments of arbitrary orders for the limit laws. We also evaluate the mean value of the two-dimensional distribution function ℙ(D n ≤n u , D{n/D n}≤n v ).

This paper is devoted to probabilistic cellular automata (PCAs) on N,Z or Z / nZ, depending on two neighbors with a general alphabet E (finite or infinite, discrete or not). We study the following question: under which conditions does a PCA possess a Markov chain as an invariant distribution? Previous results in the literature give some conditions on the transition matrix (for positive rate PCAs) when the alphabet E is finite. Here we obtain conditions on the transition kernel of a PCA with a general alphabet E. In particular, we show that the existence of an invariant Markov chain is equivalent to the existence of a solution to a cubic integral equation. One of the difficulties in passing from a finite alphabet to a general alphabet comes from the problem of measurability, and a large part of this work is devoted to clarifying these issues.

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (nonfractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.

Comparison results are given for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes with respect to function classes with induced stochastic orderings. The main result states the comparison of two processes, provided that the comparability of their infinitesimal generators as well as an invariance property of one process is assumed. The corresponding proof is based on a representation result for the solutions of inhomogeneous evolution problems in Banach spaces, which extends previously known results from the literature. Based on this representation, an ordering result for Markov processes induced by bounded and unbounded function classes is established. We give various applications to time-inhomogeneous diffusions, to processes with independent increments, and to Lévy-driven diffusion processes.