Subsolutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation associated with a moderate deviations approximation are used to design importance sampling changes of measure for stochastic recursive equations. Analogous to what has been done for large deviations subsolution-based importance sampling, these schemes are shown to be asymptotically optimal under the moderate deviations scaling. We present various implementations and numerical results to contrast their performance, and also discuss the circumstances under which a moderate deviation scaling might be appropriate.

In this paper we use the method of conjugate duality to investigate a class of stochastic optimal control problems where state systems are described by stochastic differential equations with delay. For this, we first analyse a stochastic convex problem with delay and derive the expression for the corresponding dual problem. This enables us to obtain the relationship between the optimalities for the two problems. Then, by linking stochastic optimal control problems with delay with a particular type of stochastic convex problem, the result for the latter leads to sufficient maximum principles for the former.

Let X(t), t ∈ ℝd, be a centered Gaussian random field with continuous trajectories and set ξu(t) = X(f(u)t), t ∈ ℝd, with f some positive function. Using classical results we can establish the tail asymptotics of ℙ{Γ(ξu) > u} as u → ∞ with Γ(ξu) = supt ∈ [0, T]d ξu(t), T > 0, by requiring that f(u) tends to 0 as u → ∞ with speed controlled by the local behavior of the correlation function of X. Recent research shows that for applications, more general functionals than the supremum should be considered and the Gaussian field can depend also on some additional parameter τu ∈ K say ξu,τu(t), t ∈ ℝd. In this paper we derive uniform approximations of ℙ{Γ(ξu,τu) > u} with respect to τu, in some index set Ku as u → ∞. Our main result has important theoretical implications; two applications are already included in Dȩbicki et al. (2016), (2017). In this paper we present three additional applications. First we derive uniform upper bounds for the probability of double maxima. Second, we extend the Piterbarg–Prisyazhnyuk theorem to some large classes of homogeneous functionals of centered Gaussian fields ξu. Finally, we show the finiteness of generalized Piterbarg constants.

We investigate the estimation of the perimeter of a set by a graph cut of a random geometric graph. For Ω ⊆ D = (0, 1)d with d ≥ 2, we are given n random independent and identically distributed points on D whose membership in Ω is known. We consider the sample as a random geometric graph with connection distance ε > 0. We estimate the perimeter of Ω (relative to D) by the, appropriately rescaled, graph cut between the vertices in Ω and the vertices in D ∖ Ω. We obtain bias and variance estimates on the error, which are optimal in scaling with respect to n and ε. We consider two scaling regimes: the dense (when the average degree of the vertices goes to ∞) and the sparse one (when the degree goes to 0). In the dense regime, there is a crossover in the nature of the approximation at dimension d = 5: we show that in low dimensions d = 2, 3, 4 one can obtain confidence intervals for the approximation error, while in higher dimensions one can obtain only error estimates for testing the hypothesis that the perimeter is less than a given number.

We consider transport networks with nodes scattered at random in a large domain. At certain local rates, the nodes generate traffic flows according to some navigation scheme in a given direction. In the thermodynamic limit of a growing domain, we present an asymptotic formula expressing the local traffic flow density at any given location in the domain in terms of three fundamental characteristics of the underlying network: the spatial intensity of the nodes together with their traffic generation rates, and of the links induced by the navigation. This formula holds for a general class of navigations satisfying a link-density and a sub-ballisticity condition. As a specific example, we verify these conditions for navigations arising from a directed spanning tree on a Poisson point process with inhomogeneous intensity function.

In this paper asymptotic results in a long-term growth rate portfolio optimization model under both fixed and proportional transaction costs are obtained. More precisely, the convergence of the model when the fixed costs tend to 0 is investigated. A suitable limit model with purely proportional costs is introduced and the convergence of optimal boundaries, asymptotic growth rates, and optimal risky fraction processes is rigorously proved. The results are based on an in-depth analysis of the convergence of the solutions to the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations.

We study an affine two-factor model introduced by Barczy et al. (2014). One component of this two-dimensional model is the so-called α-root process, which generalizes the well-known Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process. In the α = 2 case, this two-factor model was used by Chen and Joslin (2012) to price defaultable bonds with stochastic recovery rates. In this paper we prove exponential ergodicity of this two-factor model when α ∈ (1, 2). As a possible application, our result can be used to study the parameter estimation problem of the model.

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete-time state-space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the posterior probability distribution of the model parameters. In particular, the first layer yields an empirical distribution of samples on the parameter space, while the filters in the second layer are auxiliary devices to approximate the (analytically intractable) likelihood of the parameters. This approach relates the novel algorithm to the recent sequential Monte Carlo square method, which provides a nonrecursive solution to the same problem. In this paper we investigate the approximation of integrals of real bounded functions with respect to the posterior distribution of the system parameters. Under assumptions related to the compactness of the parameter support and the stability and continuity of the sequence of posterior distributions for the state-space model, we prove that the Lp norms of the approximation errors vanish asymptotically (as the number of Monte Carlo samples generated by the algorithm increases) and uniformly over time. We also prove that, under the same assumptions, the proposed scheme can asymptotically identify the parameter values for a class of models. We conclude the paper with a numerical example that illustrates the uniform convergence results by exploring the accuracy and stability of the proposed algorithm operating with long sequences of observations.

Stochastic encounter-mating (SEM) models describe monogamous permanent pair formation in finite zoological populations of multitype females and males. In this paper we study SEM models with Poisson firing times. First, we prove that the model enjoys a fluid limit as the population size diverges, that is, the stochastic dynamics converges to a deterministic system governed by coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Then we convert these ODEs to the well-known Lotka–Volterra and replicator equations from population dynamics. Next, under the so-called fine balance condition which characterizes panmixia, we solve the corresponding replicator equations and give an exact expression for the fluid limit. Finally, we consider the case with two types of female and male. Without the fine balance assumption, but under certain symmetry conditions, we give an explicit formula for the limiting mating pattern, and then use it to characterize assortative mating.

We elucidate the long-term behavior of failure rates for a broad class of frailty models in survival analysis. The class properly includes the proportional hazard frailty model, the additive frailty model, and the accelerated failure time frailty model. A complete asymptotic expansion is derived and compared with the corresponding result for the limiting behavior obtained by Finkelstein and Esaulova (2006a). Several examples are provided to facilitate the comparison and to illustrate both the applicability and the limitations of our approach.

In the first part of this paper we consider a general stationary subcritical cluster model in ℝd. The associated pair-connectedness function can be defined in terms of two-point Palm probabilities of the underlying point process. Using Palm calculus and Fourier theory we solve the Ornstein–Zernike equation (OZE) under quite general distributional assumptions. In the second part of the paper we discuss the analytic and combinatorial properties of the OZE solution in the special case of a Poisson-driven random connection model.

In this paper we study the random walk on the hypercube (ℤ / 2ℤ)n which at each step flips k randomly chosen coordinates. We prove that the mixing time for this walk is of the order (n / k)logn. We also prove that if k = o(n) then the walk exhibits cutoff at (n / 2k)logn with window n / 2k.