Article contents
Can Coherent Predictions be Contradictory?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 17 March 2021
Abstract
We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different $\sigma$-fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. The optimizer for the bound is explicitly described. This paper was originally titled ‘Contradictory predictions’.
MSC classification
- Type
- Original Article
- Information
- Copyright
- © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Applied Probability Trust
References
- 6
- Cited by