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Asymptotic methods for problems in the mathematical theory of epidemics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

A. V. Nagaev*
Affiliation:
Institute of Mathematics of the Uzbek S. S. R. Academy of Sciences, Tashkent

Extract

Let n and m be the initial numbers of susceptibles and infectives respectively in the well-known model of Bailey. The successive states of a population will be described by (i,j), where i is the number infected since the beginning of the epidemic, and j is the number removed (dead, isolated or recovered and immune) during the same period. The transition probabilities obviously are the following

Type
III. Results on the General Stochastic Epidemic
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1971 

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References

[1] Bailey, N. T. J. (1957) The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Griffin, London.Google Scholar
[2] Nagaev, A. N. and Startsev, A. N. (1970) Asymptotic analysis of a stochastic epidemic model. Teor. Verojat. Primen. 15, 97105.Google Scholar