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The theory of periodic screening II: doubly bounded recurrence times and mean lead time and detection probability estimation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Philip C. Prorok
Philip C. Prorok*
Affiliation:
National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
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Abstract

Additional theory important in the design and evaluation of a periodic screening program is presented. The distributions of doubly bounded preclinical state forward and backward recurrence times of the stochastic screening model are derived. Properties of these distributions are used to obtain an expression for estimating the mean lead time gained by screening, an alternative theoretical expression for the mean lead time and an equation for calculating an estimate of the probability of detecting preclinical disease.

Keywords

EARLY DETECTIONPERIODIC SCREENINGFORWARD RECURRENCE TIMEBACKWARD RECURRENCE TIMELEAD TIMEDETECTION PROBABILITYSTATIONARY POINT PROCESS
Type
Research Article
Information
Advances in Applied Probability , Volume 8 , Issue 3 , September 1976 , pp. 460 - 476
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1976 

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