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Series:   Elements in Campaigns and Elections

The Power of Polls?

A Cross-National Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Campaign Polls

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2021

Jason Roy ,
Shane P. Singh  and
Patrick Fournier
Jason Roy
Affiliation:
Wilfrid Laurier University, Ontario
Shane P. Singh
Affiliation:
University of Georgia
Patrick Fournier
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal

Summary

Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.
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Series: Elements in Campaigns and Elections
Online ISBN: 9781108877428
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 07 October 2021

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