Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T13:28:49.810Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

One Road to Riches?

How State Building and Democratization Affect Economic Development

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 December 2021

Haakon Gjerløw
Affiliation:
Peace Research Institute Oslo
Carl Henrik Knutsen
Affiliation:
Universitetet i Oslo
Tore Wig
Affiliation:
Universitetet i Oslo
Matthew Charles Wilson
Affiliation:
University of South Carolina

Summary

Building effective state institutions before introducing democracy is widely presumed to improve different development outcomes. Conversely, proponents of this “stateness-first” argument anticipate that democratization before state building yields poor development outcomes. In this Element, we discuss several strong assumptions that (different versions of) this argument rests upon and critically evaluate the existing evidence base. In extension, we specify various observable implications. We then subject the stateness-first argument to multiple tests, focusing on economic growth as an outcome. First, we conduct historical case studies of two countries with different institutional sequencing histories, Denmark and Greece, and assess the stateness-first argument (e.g., by using a synthetic control approach). Thereafter, we draw on an extensive global sample of about 180 countries, measured across 1789–2019 and leverage panel regressions, preparametric matching, and sequence analysis to test a number of observable implications. Overall, we find little evidence to support the stateness-first argument.
Get access
Type
Element
Information
Online ISBN: 9781009053693
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 07 April 2022

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2):495510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, D. (2008). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., and Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empricial investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5):13691401.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., and Robinson, J. A. (2019). Democracy does cause growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1):47100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. Profile Books, London.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2019). The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty. Penguin Press, New York.Google Scholar
Adsera, A., Boix, C., and Payne, M. (2003). Are you being served? Political accountability and quality of government. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, 19(2):445490.Google Scholar
Albertus, M. and Menaldo, V. (2012). If you’re against them you’re with us: The effect of expropriation on autocratic survival. Comparative Political Studies, 45(8):9731003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Albertus, M. and Menaldo, V. (2018). Authoritarian and the Elite Origins of Democracy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., and Wacziarg, R. (2003). Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth, 8(June): 155194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andersen, D. and Cornell, A. (2018). The ambiguous effects of democracy on bureaucratic quality. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Andersen, D. and Doucette, J. (2020). State first? A Disaggregation and empirical interrogation. British Journal of Political Science, FirstView.Google Scholar
Andersen, D., Møller, J., Rørbæk, L. L., and Skaaning, S.-E. (2014). State capacity and political regime stability. Democratization, 21(7):13051325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansell, B. W. and Samuels, D. J. (2014). Inequality and Democratization. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Bäck, H. and Hadenius, A. (2008). Democracy and state capacity: Exploring a j-shaped relationship. Governance, 21(1):124.Google Scholar
Barro, R. J. and Sala-i Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Benavot, A. and Riddle, P. (1988). The expansion of primary education, 1870–1940: Trends and issues. American Sociological Association, 61(3):191210.Google Scholar
Berman, S. (2007). How democracies emerge: Lessons from Europe. Journal of Democracy, 18(1):2841.Google Scholar
Berman, S. (2019). Democracy and Dictatorship in Europe: From the Ancien Régime to the Present Day. Oxford University Press, New York.Google Scholar
Besley, T. and Persson, T. (2009). The origins of state capacity: Property rights, taxation and politics. American Economic Review, 99(4):12181244.Google Scholar
Besley, T. and Persson, T. (2010). State capacity, conflict and development. Econometrica, 78(1):134.Google Scholar
Besley, T. and Persson, T. (2011). Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Bizzarro, F., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., et al. (2018). Party strength and economic growth. World Politics, 70(2):275320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1):115143.Google Scholar
Bockstette, V., Chanda, A., and Putterman, L. (2002). States and markets: The advantage of an early start. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(4):347369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bogaards, M. (2012). Where to draw the line? From degree to dichotomy in measures of democracy. Democratization, 19(4):690712.Google Scholar
Boix, C., Miller, M., and Rosato, S. (2012). A complete data set of political regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies, 46(12):15231554.Google Scholar
Bolt, J. and van Zanden, J. L. (2013). The first update of the Maddison project: Re-estimating growth before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.Google Scholar
Borcan, O., Olsson, O., and Putterman, L. (2018). State history and economic development: Evidence from six millennia. Journal of Economic Growth, 23:140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, T., Goenaga, A., Lindvall, J., and Teorell, J. (2019). The lay of the land: Information capacity and the modern state. Comparative Political Studies, 53(2):175213.Google Scholar
Brautigam, D., Fjeldstad, O.-H. F., and Moore, M. (2008). Taxation and State-Building in Developing Countries: Capacity and Consent. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., and Morrow, J. D. (2003). The Logic of Political Survival. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Carbone, G. and Memoli, V. (2015). Does democratization foster state consolidation? Democratic rule, political order, and administrative capacity. Governance, 28(1):524.Google Scholar
Carothers, T. (2007). The “sequencing” fallacy. Journal of Democracy, 18(1):1327.Google Scholar
Casper, G. and Wilson, M. (2015). Using sequences to model crises. Political Science Research and Methods, 3(2):381397.Google Scholar
Chabal, P. and Daloz, J.-P. (1999). Africa Works: Disorder as Political Instrument. James Currey, Oxford.Google Scholar
Charron, N. and Lapuente, V. (2010). Does democracy produce quality of government? European Journal of Political Research, 49(4):443470.Google Scholar
Colagrossi, M., Rossignoli, D., and Maggioni, M. A. (2020). Does democracy cause growth? meta-analysis (of 2000 regressions). European Journal of Political Economy, 61(1):Online:101824.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Altman, D., et al. (2011). Defining and measuring democracy: A new approach. Perspectives on Politics, 9(2):247267.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Glynn, A., et al. (2020a). Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., et al. (2020b). Varieties of democracy (v-dem) dataset v.10. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.Google Scholar
Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Knutsen, C. H., et al. (2020c). Varieties of democracy (v-dem) codebook v.10. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.Google Scholar
Cornell, A., Knutsen, C. H., and Teorell, J. (2020). Bureaucracy and growth. Comparative Political Studies, 53(14):22462282.Google Scholar
Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Dahl, R. A. (1998). On Democracy. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
D’Arcy, M. and Nistotskaya, M. (2017). State first, then democracy: Using cadastral records to explain governmental performance in public goods provision. Governance, 30(2):193209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doucouliagos, H. and Ulubaşoğlu, M. A. (2008). Democracy and economic growth: A meta-analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 52(1):6183.Google Scholar
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Evans, P. and Rauch, J. E. (1999). Bureaucracy and growth: A cross-national analysis of the effects of “Weberian” state. American Sociological Review, 64(5):748765.Google Scholar
Evans, P. B. (1995). Embedded Autonomy. States and Industrial Transformation. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Fariss, C. J., Crabtree, C. D., Anders, T., Jones, Z. M., Linder, F. J., and Markowitz, J. N. (2017). Latent estimation of GDP, GDP per capita, and population from historic and contemporary sources. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Fortin-Rittenberger, J. (2014). Exploring the relationship between infrastructural and coercive state capacity. Democratization, 21(7):12441264.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2004). State-Building: Governance and World-Order in the 21st Century. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2007). Liberalism versus state-building. Journal of Democracy, 18(3):1013.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2011). Is there a proper sequence in democratic transitions? Current History, 110(739):308310.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2012). The Origins of Political Order. Profile Books, London.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2014a). Polticial Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalisation of Democracy. Profile Books, London.Google Scholar
Fukuyama, F. (2014b). States and democracy. Democratization, 21(7):13261340.Google Scholar
Galenson, W. (1959). Labor and Economic Development. John Wiley and Sons, New York.Google Scholar
Gerring, J., Bond, P., Barndt, W. T., and Moreno, C. (2005). Democracy and economic growth: A historical perspective. World Politics, 57(3):323364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gøbel, E. (2003). De styrede rigerne: Embedsmændene i den dansk-norske cantraladministration 1660–1814. Syddansk Universitetsforlag, Odense.Google Scholar
Haber, S. and Menaldo, V. (2011). Do natural resources fuel authoritarianism? reappraisal of the resource curse. American Political Science Review, 105(1):126.Google Scholar
Hainmueller, J. (2012). Entropy balancing for causal effects: A multivariate reweighting method to produce balanced samples in observational studies. Political Analysis, 20(1):2546.Google Scholar
Halperin, M. H., Siegle, J. T., and Weinstein, M. M. (2005). The Democracy Advantage: How Democracies Promote Prosperity and Peace. Routledge, New York.Google Scholar
Hanson, J. (2015). Democracy and state capacity: Complements or substitutes? Studies in Comparative International Development, 50(3):304330.Google Scholar
Hanson, J. K. and Sigman, R. (2019). Leviathan’s latent dimensions: Measuring state capacity for comparative political research. Working Paper.Google Scholar
Harvey, R. A., Hayden, J. D., Kamble, P. S., Bouchard, J. R., and Huang, J. C. (2017). A comparison of entropy balance and probability weighting methods to generalize observational cohorts to a population: a simulation and empirical example. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, 26:367377.Google Scholar
Hobson, C. (2012). Liberal democracy and beyond: Extending the sequencing debate. International Political Science Review, 33(4):441454.Google Scholar
Hoeffler, A. E. (2002). The augmented Solow model and the African growth debate. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(2):135158.Google Scholar
Honaker, J. and King, G. (2010). What to do about missing values in time-series cross-section data. American Journal of Political Science, 54(3):561581.Google Scholar
Huntington, S. P. (1968). Political Order in Changing Societies. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Huntington, S. P. (1991). Democracy’s third wave. Journal of Democracy, 2(2):1234.Google Scholar
Iacus, S. M., King, G., and Porro, G. (2012). Causal inference without balance checking: Coarsened exact matching. Political Analysis, 20(1):124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, R. and Welzel, C. (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Jerven, M. (2013). Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do about It. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, S. (2015). Modern Greece: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kammas, P. and Sarantides, V. (2020). Democratisation and tax structure in the presence of ome production: Evidence from the Kingdom of Greece. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 177:219236.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, D., Kray, A., and Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430.Google Scholar
Kemeny, J. (1995). Theories of power in the three worlds of welfare capitalism. Journal of European Social Policy, 5(2):8796.Google Scholar
Kennedy, R. (2010). The contradiction of modernization: A conditional model of endogenous democratization. Journal of Politics, 72(3):785798.Google Scholar
Knudsen, T. (2006). Fra Enevælde til Folkestyre. Dansk Demokratihistorie Indtil 1973. Akademisk Forlag, Copenhagen.Google Scholar
Knutsen, C. H. (2011a). Democracy, dictatorship and protection of property rights. Journal of Development Studies, 47(1):164182.Google Scholar
Knutsen, C. H. (2011b). The Economic Effects of Democracy and Dictatorship. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo.Google Scholar
Knutsen, C. H. (2012). Democracy and economic growth: A survey of arguments and results. International Area Studies Review, 15(4):393415.Google Scholar
Knutsen, C. H. (2013). Democracy, state capacity, and economic growth. World Development, 43(March):118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knutsen, C. H. (2015). Why democracies outgrow autocracies in the long run: Civil liberties, information flows and technological change. Kyklos, 68(3):357384.Google Scholar
Knutsen, C. H., Teorell, J., Wig et al. (2019). Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset: Patterns and Determinants of Democratization in the Long 19th Century. Journal of Peace Research, 56(3):440451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, D. A. and Baum, M. A. (2001). The invisible hand of democracy: Political control and the provision of public services. Comparative Political Studies, 34(6):587621.Google Scholar
Levi, M. (1989). Of Rule and Revenue. University of California Press, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Lindert, P. H. (2005). Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century. Vol. 1. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Lindvall, J. and Teorell, J. (2016). State capacity as power: A conceptual framework. Lund University: STANCE Working Paper No. 1.Google Scholar
Lührmann, A., Tannenberg, M., and Lindberg, S. I. (2018). Regimes of the world (row): Opening new avenues for the comparative study of political regimes. Politics and Governance, 6(1):6077.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2007). Contours of the World Economy 1–2030. Oxford University Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
Magee, C. S. and Doces, J. A. (2015). Reconsidering regime type and growth: Lies, dictatorships, and statistics. International Studies Quarterly, 59(2):223237.Google Scholar
Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. (1995). Democratization and the danger of war. International Security, 20(1):538.Google Scholar
Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. (2005). Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Mansfield, E. D. and Snyder, J. L. (2007). The sequencing “fallacy.Journal of Democracy, 18(3):510.Google Scholar
Marshall, M. G. and Jaggers, K. (2007). Polity IV Project: Dataset Users’ Manual.Google Scholar
Marshall, T. H. (1949). Citizenship and Social Class. Pluto, London.Google Scholar
Mazzuca, S. and Munck, G. L. (2014). State or democracy first? Alternative perspectives on the state-democracy nexus. Democratization, 21(7):12211243.Google Scholar
Migdal, J. S. (1988). Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Miller, M. K. (2015). Democratic pieces: Autocratic elections and democratic development since 1815. British Journal of Political Science, 45(3):501530.Google Scholar
Møller, J. (2015). The medieval roots of democracy. Journal of Democracy, 26(3):110123.Google Scholar
Møller, J. and Skaaning, S.-E. (2013). Regime types and democratic sequencing. Journal of Democracy, 24(1):142155.Google Scholar
Mudge, S. L. and Chen, A. S. (2014). Political parties and the sociological imagination: Past, present, and future directions. Annual Review of Sociology, 40:305330.Google Scholar
North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
North, D. C. (2005). Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Olson, M. (1982). The Rise and Decline of Nations. Economic Growth, Stagflation and Social Rigidities. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Olson, M. (1993). Dictatorship, democracy, and development. American Political Science Review, 87(3):567576.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Papaioannou, E. and Siourounis, G. (2008). Democratization and growth. Economic Journal, 118(532):15201551.Google Scholar
Przeworski, A. (1991). Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., and Limongi, F. (2000). Democracy and Development. Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Przeworski, A. and Limongi, F. (1993). Political regimes and economic growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(3):5169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, A. and Limongi, F. (1997). Modernization: Theories and Facts. World Politics, 49(2):155183.Google Scholar
Robinson, J. A. and Verdier, T. (2013). The political economy of Clientelism. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 115(2):260291.Google Scholar
Rodrik, D. (1991). Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 36(2):229242.Google Scholar
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., and Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2):131165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, P. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5):71102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rustow, D. A. (1970). Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model. Comparative Politics, 2(3):337363.Google Scholar
SchweinitzJr., K. d. (1959). Industrialization, labor controls, and democracy. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 7(4):385404.Google Scholar
Scott, J. (1998). Seeing Like a State. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Seeberg, M. B. (2015). The Contingent Effect of Authoritarian Elections. PhD thesis, Aarhus University.Google Scholar
Sen, A. (1999). Development as Freedom. Anchor Books, New York.Google Scholar
Shefter, M. (1993). Political Parties and the State. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Stasavage, D. (2005). Democracy and educational spending in Africa. American Journal of Political Science, 49(2):343358.Google Scholar
Stasavage, D. (2020). The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Google Scholar
Teorell, J., Coppedge, M., Lindberg, S., and Skaaning, S.-E. (2019). Measuring polyarchy across the globe, 1900–2017. Studies in Comparative International Development, 54(1):7195.Google Scholar
Tilly, C. (1990). Coercion, Capital and European States, A.D. 990–1992. Cambridge: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
van Ham, C. and Seim, B. (2017). Strong states, weak elections? How state capacity in authoritarian regimes conditions the democratizing power of elections. International Political Science Review, 39(1):4966.Google Scholar
Wang, E. H. and Xu, Y. (2018). Awakening Leviathan: The effect of democracy on state capacity. Research & Politics, 5(2):2053168018772398.Google Scholar
Weber, M. ([1918]1968). Economy and Society. University of Carlifornia Press, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Zakaria, F. (2003). The Future of Freedom. Illiberal Democracy Home and Abroad. W. W. Norton, New York.Google Scholar
Ziblatt, D. (2017). Conservative Parties and the Birth of Modern Democracy in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

One Road to Riches?
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

One Road to Riches?
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

One Road to Riches?
Available formats
×