Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
  • Cited by 134
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:
July 2016
Print publication year:
2016
Online ISBN:
9781316534823

Book description

First published in 1982, Ellery Eells' original work on rational decision making had extensive implications for probability theorists, economists, statisticians and psychologists concerned with decision making and the employment of Bayesian principles. His analysis of the philosophical and psychological significance of Bayesian decision theories, causal decision theories and Newcomb's paradox continues to be influential in philosophy of science. His book is now revived for a new generation of readers and presented in a fresh twenty-first-century series livery, including a specially commissioned preface written by Brian Skyrms, illuminating its continuing importance and relevance to philosophical enquiry.

Refine List

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
×

Contents

Bibliography
Adams, E. W. & Rosenkrantz, R. D. (1980). Applying the Jeffrey decision model to rational betting and information acquisition. Theory and Decision, 12 Google Scholar, 1–20.
Alexander, H. G. (1958). The paradoxes of confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 9 Google Scholar, 227–33.
Allais, M. (1953). Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école americaine. Econometrica, 21 Google Scholar, 503–46.
Bar-Hillel, M. (1973). On the subjective probability of compound events. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9 Google Scholar, 396–406.
Bar-Hillel, M. & Margalit, A. (1972). Newcomb's paradox revisited. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 23 Google Scholar, 295–304.
Becker, G. M. & McClintock, C. G. (1967). Value: behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 18 Google Scholar, 239–86.
Black, M. (1966). Notes on the “paradoxes of confirmation”n Aspects of Inductive Logic, ed. Hintikka, J. and Suppes, P., pp. 175–97. Amsterdam Google Scholar: North Holland Publishing Company.
Bogdan, R. J. (1976) (ed.). Local Induction. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Bolker, E. D. (1967). A simultaneous axiomatization of utility and subjective probability. Philosophy of Science, 34 Google Scholar, 333–40.
Borch, K. (1968). The Allais paradox: a comment. Behavioral Science, 13 Google Scholar, 488–9.
Braithwaite, R. B. (1933). The nature of believing. In Knowledge and Belief, ed. Griffiths, A. P., pp. 28–40. (1973). London Google Scholar: Oxford University Press.
Braithwaite, R. B. (1953). Scientific Explanation. New York Google Scholar: Harper & Brothers.
Brown, P. M. (1976). Conditionalization and expected utility. Philosophy of Science, 43 Google Scholar, 415–19.
Carnap, R. (1950). Logical Foundations of Probability, (1962). Chicago Google Scholar: University of Chicago Press.
Cartwright, N. (1979). Causal laws and effective strategies. Nous, 13 Google Scholar, 419–37.
Chihara, C. (1981). Quine and the confirmational paradoxes. In Midwest Studies in Philosophy 6: Foundations of Analytic Philosophy, ed. French, P., Wettstein, H. & Uehling, T. Google Scholar, pp. 425–52. University of Minnesota Press.
Churchman, C. W. (1948). Theory of Experimental Inference. New York Google Scholar: The Macmillan Company.
Churchman, C. W. (1956). Science and decision making. Philosophy of Science, 23 Google Scholar, 247–9.
Cohen, L. J. (1981). Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4 Google Scholar, 317–31.
Coombs, C. H., Bezembinder, T. G. & Goode, F. M. (1967). Testing expectation theories of decision making without measuring utility or subjective probability. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 4 Google Scholar, 72–103.
DeFinetti, B. (1937). Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. Trans. Kyburg, H. E. in Studies in Subjective Probability, ed. Kyburg, H. E. & Smokler, H. E., pp. 93–158. (1964). New York Google Scholar: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DeFinetti, B. (1970). Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment, trans. Machí, A. & Smith, A., vol. 1. (1973). New York Google Scholar: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Domotor, Z. (1978). Axiomatization of Jeffrey utilities. Synthese, 39 Google Scholar, 165–210.
Dorling, J. (1979). Bayesian personalism, the methodology of scientific research programmes, and Duhem's problem. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 10 Google Scholar, 177–87.
Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12 Google Scholar, 473–98.
Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity and the Savage axioms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75 Google Scholar, 643–69.
Fellner, W. (1961). Distortion of subjective probabilities as a reaction to uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75 Google Scholar, 670–89.
Gibbard, A. & Harper, W. L. (1978). Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility. In Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory, ed. Hooker, C. A., Leach, J. J. & McClennen, E. F., vol. 1, pp. 125–62. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Glymour, C. (1980). Theory and Evidence. Princeton Google Scholar: Princeton University Press.
Good, I. J. (1967). The white shoe is a red herring. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 17 Google Scholar, 322.
Goodman, N. (1955). Fact, Fiction and Forecast, (1973). Indianapolis Google Scholar: The Bobbs–Merrill Company, Inc.
Hacking, I. (1967). Slightly more realistic personal probability. Philosophy of Science, 34 Google Scholar, 311–25.
Hempel, C. G. (1945). Studies in the logic of confirmation. In his Aspects of Scientific Explanation and other Essays in the Philosophy of Science, pp. 3–46. (1965). New York Google Scholar: The Free Press.
Hempel, C. G. (1960). Inductive inconsistencies. In his Aspects of Scientific Explanation and other Essays in the Philosophy of Science, pp. 53–79. (1965). New York Google Scholar: The Free Press.
Hesse, M. (1974). The Structure of Scientific Inference. Berkeley Google Scholar: University of California Press.
Hosiasson-Lindenbaum, J. (1940). On confirmation. Journal of Symbolic Logic, 5 Google Scholar, 133–48.
Jackson, F. & Pargetter, R. (1976). A modified Dutch book argument. Philosophical Studies, 29 Google Scholar, 403–7.
Jamison, D. (1970). Bayesian information usage. In Information and Inference, ed. Hintikka, J. & Suppes, P., pp. 28–57. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Jaynes, E. T. (1958). Probability Theory in Science and Engineering, Colloquium Lectures in Pure and Applied Science, no. 4, Field Research Laboratory, Socony Mobil Oil, Dallas Google Scholar. (Lecture 5, The A p distribution, pp. 152–87.)
Jeffrey, R. C. (1956). Valuation and acceptance of scientific hypotheses. Philosophy of Science, 23 Google Scholar, 237–46.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1965 a). Ethics and the logic of decision. The Journal of Philosophy, 62 Google Scholar, 528–39.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1965 b). The Logic of Decision. New York Google Scholar: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1974). Preferences among preferences. The Journal of Philosophy, 71 Google Scholar, 377–91.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1977). Savage's omelet. In PSA 1976, ed. Suppe, F. & Asquith, P. D., vol. 2, pp. 361–71. East Lansing Google Scholar: Philosophy of Science Association.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1978). Axiomatizing the logic of decision. In Foundations and Applications of Decision Theory, vol. 1, ed. Hooker, C. A., Leach, J. J. and McClennen, E. F., pp. 227–31. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Jeffrey, R. C. (198l a). Choice, chance and credence. In Philosophy of Language/Philosophical Logic, ed. von Wright, G. H. & Fløustad, F., pp. 367–86. The Hague Google Scholar: Nijhoff.
Jeffrey, R. C. (1981 b). The logic of decision defended. Synthese, 48 Google Scholar, 473–92.
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3 Google Scholar, 430–54.
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction, The Psychological Review, 80 Google Scholar, 237–51.
Kennedy, R. & Chihara, C. (1979). The Dutch book argument: its logical flaws, its subjective sources. Philosophical Studies, 36 Google Scholar, 19–33.
Krantz, D. H., Luce, R. D., Suppes, P. & Tversky, A. (197l). Foundations of Measurement, vol. 1. New York Google Scholar: Academic Press.
Kyburg, H. (1978). Subjective probability: criticisms, reflections, and problems. Journal of Philosophical Logic, 7 Google Scholar, 157–80.
Leibniz, G. W. (1765). New Essays Concerning Human Understanding, trans. Langley, A. G., (1949). La Salle, Illinois Google Scholar: The Open Court Publishing Company.
Levi, I. (1961). Decision theory and confirmation. The Journal of Philosophy, 58 Google Scholar, 614–25.
Lewis, D. (1979). Prisoners’ Dilemma is a Newcomb problem. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 8 Google Scholar, 235–40.
Lewis, D. (1981). Causal decision theory. Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 59 Google Scholar, 5–30.
Luce, R. D. & Krantz, D. H. (1971). Conditional expected utility. Econometrica, 39 Google Scholar, 253–71.
MacCrimmon, K. R. (1968). Descriptive and normative implications of the decision-theory postulates. In Risk and Uncertainty, ed. Borch, K. & Mossin, J., pp. 3–23. New York Google Scholar: Saint Martin's Press.
Mackie, J. L. (1963). The paradox of confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 13 Google Scholar, 265–77.
Mellor, D. H. (1971). The Matter of Chance Google Scholar. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mellor, D. H. (1978). Conscious belief. Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, 78 Google Scholar, 87–101.
Mellor, D. H. (1980). Consciousness and degrees of belief. In Prospects for Pragmatism: Essays in Honor of F. P. Ramsey, ed. Mellor, D. H., pp. 139–73. Cambridge Google Scholar: Cambridge University Press.
Miller, D. (1966). A paradox of information. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 17 Google Scholar, 59–61.
Morrison, D. G. (1967). On the consistency of preferences in Allais’ paradox. Behavioral Science, 12 Google Scholar, 373–83.
Nozick, R. (1969). Newcomb's problem and two principles of choice. In Essays in Honor of Carl G. Hempel, ed. Rescher, N., et al, pp. 114–46. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Pears, D. (1950). Hypotheticals. Analysis, 10 Google Scholar, 49–63.
Pfanzagl, J. (1968). Theory of Measurement. New York Google Scholar: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Quine, W. V. (1969). Natural kinds. In his Ontological Relativity and Other Essays, pp. 114–38. New York Google Scholar: Columbia University Press.
Raiffa, H. (1961). Risk, ambiguity and the Savage axioms: comment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75 Google Scholar, 690–4.
Ramsey, F. P. (1926). Truth and probability. In his The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, ed. Braithwaite, R. B., pp. 156–98. (1931). London Google Scholar: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Republished in his Foundations, ed. D. H. Mellor, pp. 58–100. (1978). London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Also in Studies in Subjective Probability, ed. H. E. Kyburg & H. E. Smokler, pp. 61–92. (1964). New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Rapoport, A. & Wallsten, T. S. (1972). Individual decision behavior. Annual Review of Psychology, 23 Google Scholar, 131–76.
Rawls, J. (1971). A Theory of Justice. Cambridge, Massachusetts Google Scholar: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Rosenkrantz, R. D. (1976). Simplicity. In Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, ed. Harper, W. L. & Hooker, C. A., vol. 1, pp. 167–203. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Rudner, R. (1953). The scientist qua scientist makes value judgments. Philosophy of Science, 20 Google Scholar, 1–6.
Savage, L. J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics, 1972. New York Google Scholar: Dover Publications, Inc.
Savage, L. J. (1967). Difficulties in the theory of personal probability. Philosophy of Science, 34 Google Scholar, 305–10.
Scheffler, I. (1963). The Anatomy of Inquiry. Indianapolis Google Scholar: The Bobbs–Merrill Company, Inc.
Schlesinger, G. (1974). The unpredictability of free choices. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 25 Google Scholar, 209–21.
Skyrms, B. (1980 a). Causal Necessity: A Pragmatic Investigation of the Necessity of Laws. New Haven Google Scholar: Yale University Press.
Skyrms, B. (1980 b). Higher order degrees of belief. In Prospects for Pragmatism: Essays in Honor of F. P. Ramsey, ed. Mellor, D. H., pp. 109–37. Cambridge Google Scholar: Cambridge University Press.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 28 Google Scholar, 1–39.
Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 6 Google Scholar, 649–744.
Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (1974). Who accepts Savage's axiom? Behavioral Science, 19 Google Scholar, 368–73.
Suppes, P. (1956). The role of subjective probability and utility in decision-making. In Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol. 5, ed. Neyman, J., pp. 61–73. Berkeley Google Scholar: University of California Press.
Suppes, P. (1960). Some open problems in the foundations of subjective probability. In Information and Decision Processes, ed. Machol, R. E., pp. 162–9. New York Google Scholar: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Suppes, P. (1961). The philosophical relevance of decision theory. The Journal of Philosophy, 58 Google Scholar, 605–14.
Suppes, P. (1966). A Bayesian approach to the paradoxes of confirmation. In Aspects of Inductive Logic, ed. Hintikka, J. & Suppes, P., pp. 198–207. Amsterdam Google Scholar: North Holland Publishing Company.
Swinburne, R. (1973). An Introduction to Confirmation Theory. London Google Scholar: Methuen.
Teller, P. (1976). Conditionalization, observation and change of preference. In Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, vol. 1, ed. Harper, W. L. and Hooker, C. A., 205–59. Dordrecht Google Scholar: D. Reidel Publishing Company.
Tversky, A. (1967 a). Additivity, utility and subjective probability. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 4 Google Scholar, 75–201.
Tversky, A. (1967 b). Utility theory and additivity analysis of risky choices. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 75 Google Scholar, 27–36.
Tversky, A. (1969). Intransitivity of preferences. The Psychological Review, 76 Google Scholar, 31–48.
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76 Google Scholar, 105–10.
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5 Google Scholar, 207–32.
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science, 185 Google Scholar, 1124–31.
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211 Google Scholar, 453–8.
Von Neumann, J. & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton Google Scholar: Princeton University Press.

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Usage data cannot currently be displayed.