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8 - Using proxy data, historical climate data and climate models to investigate aridification during the Holocene

from Part II - The palaeoenvironmental record

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Emily Black ,
David Brayshaw ,
Stuart Black  and
Claire Rambeau
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
David Brayshaw
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Stuart Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Claire Rambeau
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
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Summary

ABSTRACT

When used in conjunction, climate models and palaeoenvironmental data can lead to a more complete understanding of past climate than is possible using either method in isolation. Moreover, the veracity of climate models can be evaluated, which then lends credence to their use for predicting future climate change. In this study we investigate the transition to aridity in the eastern Mediterranean that occurred in the Holocene, a transition with marked consequences for settlement of the Middle East. We show that the general pattern of a transition during the Holocene to a wetter northern Europe and a drier Middle East is seen in both the palaeoenvironmental record and climate model simulations. The pattern of precipitation changes projected by the climate model for the past is similar to those projected for the end of the twenty-first century under GHG-driven climate change. The climate model's ability to represent the past – as tested against palaeoenvironmental observations – thus lends credence to the future projections.

INTRODUCTION

The Holocene climate of the Middle East can be investigated using climate proxies and geological evidence (Chapters 6 and 7, this volume) or through climate modelling (Chapter 3). In this chapter, we show how combining these two approaches has the potential to deepen our understanding of the past climate. We also describe how comparison between the climate model output, proxy data and historical observations provides a means of evaluating the climate models and assessing the credibility of future projections.

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 105 - 112
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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