Published online by Cambridge University Press: 27 May 2010
Hazard assessments are invariably a blend of expert interpretations of geophysical events and statistical descriptions of these events. Analyses of the recurrence rate and magnitude of events, their spatial density and their potential effects are essential components of hazard assessment for nuclear facilities. This chapter explores a robust approach to estimating spatial density using kernel methods and describes new methods of quantifying the uncertainty in these estimations using statistical techniques. Some of the spatial density estimation methods presented in this chapter have been used since the mid 1990s. In addition, new tools are emerging that offer improved understanding of spatial density estimates and their application in hazard assessments. For example, algorithms have been developed for numerical optimization of estimates of spatial density. Smoothed bootstrap techniques provide a mechanism for assessing uncertainty in spatial density, especially where information on past events is sparse. Methods in parallel processing have revolutionized the way we explore models of spatial density, in ways that were not practical even a decade ago. These developments are exceedingly encouraging. Although purely quantitative descriptions of spatial density, by themselves, are unlikely to ever be sufficient for assessment of hazard and risk, these quantitative estimations combined with expert judgment provide a powerful tool for improving these assessments. Thus, recent developments in quantitative density estimation will have a significant impact on the quality of geologic hazard assessments for nuclear facilities.
To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.