Foreign policy decisions are shaped by many factors. The real world is complicated, and many variables are taken into account when decisions are made. The role of information processing, framing, and cognitive biases in decision making points to the need for a psychological approach to FPDM. In this chapter, we assess how factors such as the personality and beliefs of leaders, leadership style, emotions, images, cognitive consistency, and the use of analogies influence and shape foreign policy decision making. Overall, these factors call into question the explanatory power of the rational model. Decision makers are not necessarily “irrational” but rather are limited in their ability to carry out all the steps of the rational model. This section describes the forces that cause decision makers to deviate away from the rational ideal and toward a more cognitive-based model of decision making.

PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS

Decisions at the highest rungs of government are usually made by small groups or powerful individuals. Psychological factors can potentially have great impact on decisions made by these small units (Cashman 1993). The impact is even greater if the decision making occurs during a crisis, the government is a dictatorship, or the country is newly independent or experiencing regime change.

Kennedy's decision during the Cuban Missile Crisis was influenced primarily by the relatively few members of EXCOM. Winston Churchill's dominance as a decision maker during World War II is another example of crisis decision making.