In the summer of 2021, The Economist published a special section on Taiwan with the tagline “the most dangerous place on earth” (Economist 2021). Despite the sensational title, it provided a measured and sober account of the potential for militarized superpower conflict in the Taiwan Strait. It was a reasonable line to take, prompted by increasingly fractious Sino-US relations and deeply frozen cross-Strait relations. It also reflected a long history of academic and policy assessments that have dealt with the same question. Some scholarly research came to a similar conclusion that Taiwan is increasingly in danger, while other work did not and instead see Taiwan's position as still stable (Foreign Affairs 2022).

Those with an interest in international relations (IR) theory might be familiar with seeing Taiwan portrayed using different analytical lenses. For example, scholars working within the neorealist approach to IR, which foregrounds power, self-interest and maximization, have tended to see the Taiwan issue as a likely if not inevitable casus belli between the US and China. Neorealists explain the absence, to date, of such a confrontation by invoking deterrence. In the case of Taiwan, deterrence has come primarily in the form of American strategic ambiguity backed by the US’ superior military capabilities.

Scholars in the neoliberal tradition have been more sanguine about the likelihood of conflict. These scholars foreground trilateral economic interactions and emphasize the stability conferred by the economic institutions and policy architecture constitutive of both US–China and cross-Strait relations. The high costs and disruption that would result from militarized conflict are so daunting that all sides are compelled to avoid actions that would lead to confrontation. These scholars point to the intensification of market connections among the three sides and the economic complementarities that benefit each actor and conclude that there is too much to lose by engaging in war.

Constructivist scholars, with their focus on identity and values, veer between optimistic arguments about common ethnic and cultural bonds on either side of the Strait, and pessimistic observations of the rise of nationalism, competing identities, and values supercharged by diverging national and cultural identities in Taiwan and China.