Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Theory of Tests, p-Values, and Confidence Intervals
- 3 From Scientific Theory to Statistical Hypothesis Test
- 4 One-Sample Studies with Binary Responses
- 5 One-Sample Studies with Ordinal or Numeric Responses
- 6 Paired Data
- 7 Two-Sample Studies with Binary Responses
- 8 Assumptions and Hypothesis Tests
- 9 Two-Sample Studies with Ordinal or Numeric Responses
- 10 General Methods for Frequentist Inferences
- 11 k-Sample Studies and Trend Tests
- 12 Clustering and Stratification
- 13 Multiplicity in Testing
- 14 Testing from Models
- 15 Causality
- 16 Censoring
- 17 Missing Data
- 18 Group Sequential and Related Adaptive Methods
- 19 Testing Fit, Equivalence, and Noninferiority
- 20 Power and Sample Size
- 21 Bayesian Hypothesis Testing
- References
- Notation Index
- Concept Index
3 - From Scientific Theory to Statistical Hypothesis Test
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 17 April 2022
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Theory of Tests, p-Values, and Confidence Intervals
- 3 From Scientific Theory to Statistical Hypothesis Test
- 4 One-Sample Studies with Binary Responses
- 5 One-Sample Studies with Ordinal or Numeric Responses
- 6 Paired Data
- 7 Two-Sample Studies with Binary Responses
- 8 Assumptions and Hypothesis Tests
- 9 Two-Sample Studies with Ordinal or Numeric Responses
- 10 General Methods for Frequentist Inferences
- 11 k-Sample Studies and Trend Tests
- 12 Clustering and Stratification
- 13 Multiplicity in Testing
- 14 Testing from Models
- 15 Causality
- 16 Censoring
- 17 Missing Data
- 18 Group Sequential and Related Adaptive Methods
- 19 Testing Fit, Equivalence, and Noninferiority
- 20 Power and Sample Size
- 21 Bayesian Hypothesis Testing
- References
- Notation Index
- Concept Index
Summary
This chapter gives a brief, mostly nonmathematical, review of statistical hypothesis tests as used for making scientific inferences, with a focus on determining causality. We compare causation and association, reviewing the idea (popularized by Pearl) that probability models alone cannot determine causation, but other aspects of the study design are important for determining causality such as randomization. We differentiate between observational and experimental studies, with the latter much more suited to making causal inferences. We review the example of hormone replacement therapy and its relationship to heart disease in women, where earlier observational studies suggested that therapy reduced heart disease, while later, a large randomized trial showed the opposite. We discuss general issues with designing studies such as having a clear focus of the primary study question to avoid unintentionally exploring multiple hypotheses. We define and review validity, reliability, selection biases, placebo and Hawthorne effects, regression to the mean, blinding, dependence, intention-to-treat analyses, matching and inverse propensity score weighting.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Statistical Hypothesis Testing in ContextReproducibility, Inference, and Science, pp. 23 - 48Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2022