Towards 1996

As 1995 approached its end, many Malaysia watchers might have been led by several factors to expect the year 1996 to be full of political excitement.

To begin with, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's attempt to replace Osman Aroff with Sanusi Junid as the Menteri Besar of Kedah had reached an impasse when Osman Aroff pointedly refused to resign from his post. That impasse coincided with the failure of some of Mahathir's staunchest allies in his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) to gain control of their divisions in the state party structure. It hovered like a prelude to further and desperate manoeuvering by the parties to the conflict. In addition, UMNO was due to hold its triennial party election in late 1996. Already there had been persistent rumours of impending battles for high positions in the party hierarchy as a result of the break-up of the triumvirate of party vice-presidents assembled by Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, when he successfully challenged then UMNO Deputy President, Ghafar Baba, in 1993. Two subordinate component parties of Malaysia's ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional — the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) — were also scheduled to hold their party elections in 1996. For the MCA, there was the possibility of contests for high party positions, although the party was not expected to repeat the MCA's torridly divisive experience of the mid-1980s.

But equally as 1995 came to an end there were at least three fundamental reasons why it would have been quite safe for anyone to predict that 1996 would be a staid year for mainstream Malaysian politics.

First, the April 1995 general election had resulted in such a huge triumph for the Barisan Nasional, and had so depleted the strength of the opposition parties that the latter were unlikely to trouble the ruling coalition (at any rate not until the next general election). Second, the 1995 UMNO General Assembly had resolved not to accept any contest for the party's presidency and deputy presidency in the party election of the following year.