Book contents
- The Science of Science
- The Science of Science
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Introduction
- Part I The Science of Career
- Part II The Science of Collaboration
- Part III The Science of Impact
- 15 Big Science
- 16 Citation Disparity
- 17 High-Impact Papers
- 18 Scientific Impact
- 19 The Time Dimension of Science
- 20 Ultimate Impact
- Part IV Outlook
- Book part
- References
- Index
20 - Ultimate Impact
from Part III - The Science of Impact
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 February 2021
- The Science of Science
- The Science of Science
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Introduction
- Part I The Science of Career
- Part II The Science of Collaboration
- Part III The Science of Impact
- 15 Big Science
- 16 Citation Disparity
- 17 High-Impact Papers
- 18 Scientific Impact
- 19 The Time Dimension of Science
- 20 Ultimate Impact
- Part IV Outlook
- Book part
- References
- Index
Summary
Given the jump–decay citation patterns discussed in the previous chapter, are we forced to conclude that the papers we publish will be relevant for only a few years? We find that while aggregate citations follow a clear pattern, the trajectories of individual citations are remarkably variable. Yet, by analyzing individual citation histories, we are able to isolate three parameters – immediacy, longevity, and fitness – that dictate a paper’s future impact. In fact, all citation histories are governed by a single formula, a fact which speaks the universality of the dynamics that at first seemed quite variant. We end by discussing how a paper’s ultimate impact can be predicted using one factor alone: its relative fitness. We show how papers with the same fitness will acquire the same number of citations in the long run, regardless of which journals they are published in.
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- The Science of Science , pp. 209 - 220Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2021