On 8 September 2008, the Commission on Foreign Affairs of the Indonesian Parliament (DPR) will begin the ratification process of the ASEAN Charter. The bill to ratify the Charter was submitted by the government in early August. The government expects the ratification process to run smoothly without strong opposition, since foreign policy is rarely a controversial issue, and all parties, in general, have already supported the idea of regional integration and a strong ASEAN as an institution.

However, it is too early to predict the outcome of the deliberations on the bill, since the debate has not yet started. According to the timetable prepared by the Secretariat of the Commission on Foreign Affairs, three days, from 8–11 September, have been allocated for the conclusion of deliberations on the bill. Overly short and optimistic, the time frame suggests that the Commission will struggle to face all the questions and complexities of the issue, and the ensuing political realities.

Commission I has forty-eight members from ten factions. Only the GOLKAR Party and the Democrat Party, both in the ruling government coalition, have expressed their support and are ready to ratify the Charter swiftly. The two parties have seventeen seats in Commission I, and therefore, the ruling party has eight votes short of a simple majority. More importantly, it cannot be expected that all members of the ruling parties will attend parliament for voting. Most are busy preparing for the reelection campaign in their constituencies. When it comes to voting for such a “non-issue” as the ratification of the ASEAN Charter, only half the members are expected to turn up. Hence, there will be a good chance that non-ruling parties, led by the PDI-P, could block the ratification, or, at least, delay the process.

The current political landscape in regard to the ASEAN Charter in Commission I is not good for the government. Based on previous public hearings held in March 2008, there are three different positions. The first position is to ratify the Charter immediately. It is supported by the ruling parties, the GOLKAR Party, and the Democrat Party. However, within the ruling parties, there are members who are very critical and may cross party lines to join the opposition.