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13 - The Black Tulip and February 3, 1637

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 April 2024

Paul Embrechts
Affiliation:
Swiss Federal University (ETH), Zürich
Marius Hofert
Affiliation:
The University of Hong Kong
Valérie Chavez-Demoulin
Affiliation:
Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
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Summary

We have reached the end of our stroll. We find ourselves in the company of Alexandre Dumas who, in 1850, wrote “The Black Tulip”. In it, he combines the stories of the tulip mania in the Netherlands with the tragic story of the brothers de Witt. In our final example of “About the data” we reconstruct the historic trading data of tulip bulbs, which turns out to be a detective story in its own right. Prices for tulip bulbs crashed on February 3, 1637. We also include the story of the growing of the first black tulip in 1986. Johan de Witt was tragically lynched by a politically motivated mob on August 20, 1672. With him, we meet a politician who, through his mathematical training, was able to solve an important problem from the realm of life insurance risk, the pricing of annuities. His publication “Waerdye” is our final example on risk communication. We leave the closing lines of our book to Shakespeare’s Hamlet, who spoke the following words to Horatio “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” We hope that we were able to convince you that these words very much apply to the realm of risk.

Type
Chapter
Information
Risk Revealed
Cautionary Tales, Understanding and Communication
, pp. 337 - 344
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

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