Karl Popper's famous metaphors of “clouds” and “clocks” are often invoked to describe the nature of the social world, and the degree to which it lends itself to that much-celebrated goal of prediction. While some conceive the social world as clouds, implying contingency and unpredictability, others have attributed to it the properties of a clock, indicating the possibility of absolute regularity and predictability. Even though predicting for the social world has been a problematic exercise, it has nevertheless been possible to tease out trends, identify emerging phenomena, and make qualified analysis that consider both contingency and predictability. Regional Outlook, published since 1992, is an attempt at formulating nuanced assessments of complex political–economic processes that, in this case, are at work in Southeast Asia.

The politics of this region is not only a product of domestic political processes but also of the international politics of its external environment, specifically that of East Asia. In the period ahead, a few external dynamics would be more noticeable than others. The presidential election in the United States is one among them. While a new Democratic administration in 2008 may seem a strong possibility, it is still far from being a foregone conclusion. Either way, the trenchant neo-conservatism that has clouded sections of the U.S. foreign policy elites under the Bush administration will come under increasing strain. While this may impact on U.S. policy towards Iraq and Iran, it is unlikely to have any radical impact on U.S. policy in East Asia, where America's alliances will continue to strengthen with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and some Southeast Asian countries. Strategic concerns regarding China will also persist, and a new administration is likely to continue with a formula of engagement, pragmatism, caution, and the occasional rhetoric on rights and democracy.

An increasingly important external dynamic that will occupy the attention of Southeast Asia in the coming years is the rising strategic presence of China and India in this region. Both powers have stepped up commercial and strategic initiatives.