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from ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 21 October 2015
Brunei Darussalam
There are many promising developments on the horizon, some occurring during the forecast period, some a bit after the end of 2008 which would exert positive influences on Brunei's near and longer term development prospects. Based on the International Monetary Fund's, World Economic Outlook Database in September 2006 and the author's own estimates, growth forecast in Brunei Darussalam for the period will range between 2 and 4 per cent for 2007–2008.
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
• Economic fundamentals are set to remain strong for the Bruneian economy in the forecast period because of higher oil prices.
• Persistently high oil prices could however dampen demand from Brunei's trading partners which will have negative impacts on Brunei growth prospects.
• Construction of infrastructure in the the Sungai Liang Industrial Park and the Pulau Muara Besar Mega Port will provide a positive boost to employment and growth.
• Over the longer term, the industrial park and the port projects will bolster the country's diversification efforts.
Over the forecast period, oil and gas will continue to be the main contributors to GDP with government revenue contributing over 40 per cent to GDP, and 75 to 90 per cent to revenues. With the completion of upgrades and repairs to the production facilities, oil production increased from 2005 and will continue to be on a steady if not upward trend in the forecast period of 2007–2008. This is a positive, given the currently high prices of petroleum in the world economy. Inflation has been under control, averaging below 1.5 per cent in recent years (2000–2005) and is not expected to be a dampener on growth in 2007 and 2008. Because of high oil prices, the fiscal and the current account balance position of the Bruneian government has also been in strong positive territory and is expected to remain so during the forecast period. Tax revenue increased by 29.5 per cent to B$7.9 billion in 2005 compared to 2004. The current account balance is estimated to be above 70 per cent of GDP for 2007–2008.
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