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14 - Retrospect and prospect

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 May 2010

Paul M. Sniderman
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Richard A. Brody
Affiliation:
Stanford University, California
Phillip E. Tetlock
Affiliation:
University of California, Berkeley
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Summary

Some stocktaking is in order. Two different questions need consideration. The first is how far we have traveled; the second, where we must set out for next.

Our concern, frankly, is with the second question. Having put all our cards on the table in the last thirteen chapters, we shall offer a fairly speedy answer to the first. Still more important, precisely because we believe we have made limited but genuine progress, it cannot suffice to continue asking the same questions: It is necessary to at least sketch the new questions that have emerged from our research.

We have assembled these studies to contribute to a more satisfactory explanation of how people figure out what they favor and oppose politically. The criteria of a more satisfactory explanation are various, so we want to comment on the account of reasoning and choice we have developed.

THE FIRST STANDARD OF PROGRESS

There are two quite different ways of determining if a research program is making headway: One is if old questions are being disposed of, the other if new questions are cropping up. Let us comment on each, in order.

So long as minimalism held sway, a theory of political reasoning was unnecessary. Why develop an account of how people work out their position on a political issue if the fundamental point to appreciate is that they are unlikely to have one?

Type
Chapter
Information
Reasoning and Choice
Explorations in Political Psychology
, pp. 261 - 272
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1991

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