Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T07:12:10.378Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 24 - Benefits and Costs of the Poverty Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2018

Bjorn Lomborg
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
Get access

Summary

In this chapter I discuss two sets of reasons why there is unlikely to be zero poverty, or zero hunger, by 2030. The first reasons relate to measurement problems with zero targets; despite being attractive rallying cries for activists they create difficulty for the statistical measurement of human progress. The targets relate to the lower tail of distributions so statistics on living standards have to reliably measure not just means and totals but also variances. The main source of empirical data for monitoring progress is household surveys, which developed primarily to provide mean weights for consumer price indexes and later to aid in calculation of national accounts. Common designs used for those tasks overstate variances and mix together chronic and transient welfare components. Consequently, it will be difficult to detect the achievement of zero poverty or zero hunger with the existing approach to surveys. Moreover, as countries escape from mass poverty, the remaining poverty becomes more sensitive to inequality and the design of household surveys is increasingly ill-suited to measuring inequality in a more affluent and more urban world. The second set of reasons relates to qualitative differences between past and future problems. The role of one-off institutional reforms in East Asia whose effects are unlikely to be replicated elsewhere; the characteristics of rice as an ideal food for the poor, which gives East Asia another advantage in poverty reduction makes poverty reduction elsewhere more challenging; and, the fact that as countries escape from mass poverty the nature of poverty changes, with the poor becoming less like the majority in terms of location, ethnicity, caste or religion. Each of these factors is likely to make poverty reduction going forward much harder than it was for the two decades from 1990.
Type
Chapter
Information
Prioritizing Development
A Cost Benefit Analysis of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals
, pp. 446 - 474
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allgood, S., and Snow, A. (1998). The marginal cost of raising tax revenue and redistributing income. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1246–73.Google Scholar
Ball, L., and Mankiw, G. (2002). The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(4), 115–36.Google Scholar
Banerjee, A., and Duflo, E. (2010). Aging and Death under a Dollar a Day. In Wise, D. (ed.) Research Findings in the Economics of Aging (pp. 169203). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Beegle, K., De Weerdt, J., Friedman, J., and Gibson, J. (2012). Methods of household consumption measurement through surveys: experimental results from Tanzania. Journal of Development Economics, 98(1), 318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benjamin, D., Brandt, L., and Giles, J. (2005). The evolution of income inequality in rural China. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 53(4), 769824.Google Scholar
Bennett, P. (2012). Investment approach refocuses entire welfare system. Ministry of Social Development, Wellington, New Zealand. www.msd.govt.nz/about-msd-and-our-work/newsroom/media-releases/2012/valuation-report.html.Google Scholar
Besley, T., and Burgess, R. (2004). Can labor regulation hinder economic performance? Evidence from India. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 91134.Google Scholar
Bose, A. (2001). Population of India: 2001 Census Results and Methodology. Delhi: BR Publishing Corporation, Distributed by BRPC (India).Google Scholar
Bruhn, M., and McKenzie, D. (2014). Entry regulation and the formalization of microenterprises in developing countries. The World Bank Research Observer, 29(2), 186201.Google Scholar
Cafiero, C. 2014. Advances in hunger measurement: traditional FAO methods and recent innovations. FAO Statistics Division Working Paper Series No. 14–04.Google Scholar
Chen, S., Datt, G., and Ravallion, M. (2000). POVCAL: A Program for Calculating Poverty Measures from Grouped Data. Development Research Group. Washington, DC: The World Bank.Google Scholar
Chen, S., and Ravallion, M. (2001). How did the world’s poorest fare in the 1990s? Review of Income and Wealth, 47(3), 283300.Google Scholar
Chen, S., and Ravallion, M. (2010). The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 15771625.Google Scholar
Chen, S., and Ravallion, M. (2013). More relatively-poor people in a less absolutely-poor world. Review of Income and Wealth, 59(1), 128.Google Scholar
Clunies-Ross, A., and Huq, M. (2014). The Universal Social Safety-Net and the Attack on World Poverty: Pressing Need, Manageable Cost, Practical Possibilities, Favourable Spillovers. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Deaton, A. (2005). Measuring poverty in a growing world (or measuring growth in a poor world). Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(1), 119.Google Scholar
Deaton, A., and Dupriez, O. (2011). Purchasing power parity exchange rates for the global poor. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(2), 137–66.Google Scholar
de Hoyos, R., and Medvedev, D. (2011). Poverty effects of higher food prices: a global perspective. Review of Development Economics, 15(3), 387402.Google Scholar
de Mel, S., McKenzie, D., and Woodruff, C. (2009b). Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Determinants of Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises. IZA Discussion Paper No. 3962, Institute for the Study of Labor.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Mel, S., McKenzie, D., and Woodruff, C. (2009a). Are women more credit constrained? Experimental evidence on gender and microenterprise returns. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(3), 132.Google Scholar
Dercon, S., and Krishnan, P. (1996). Income portfolios in rural Ethiopia and Tanzania: choices and constraints. The Journal of Development Studies, 32(6), 850–75.Google Scholar
De Weerdt, J., Beegle, K., Friedman, J., and Gibson, J. (2016). The challenge of measuring hunger through survey. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 64(4), 727–58.Google Scholar
Dupriez, O., Smith, L., and Troubat, N. (2014). Assessment of the Reliability and Relevance of the Food Data Collected in National Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys. FAO, IHSN and World Bank accessed 6 April 2014: www.ihsn.org/home/node/34.Google Scholar
Fafchamps, M., McKenzie, D., Quinn, S., and Woodruff, C. (2014). Microenterprise growth and the flypaper effect: evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana. Journal of Development Economics, 106(1), 211–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Foster, J., Greer, J., and Thorbecke, E. (1984). A class of decomposable poverty measures. Econometrica, 761–66.Google Scholar
Gerdtham, U.-G. (2002). Do life-saving regulations save lives? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 24(3), 231–49.Google Scholar
Gibson, J. (2001). Measuring chronic poverty without a panel. Journal of Development Economics, 65(2), 243–66.Google Scholar
Gibson, J. (2006). Statistical Tools and Estimation Methods for Poverty Measures Based on Cross-Sectional Household Surveys. In Kamanou, G. (ed.) United Nations Handbook of Poverty Statistics (pp. 128205). New York: United Nations Statistics Division.Google Scholar
Gibson, J. (2016). Measuring Chronic Hunger from Diet Snapshots: Why “Bottom up” Survey Counts and “Top down” FAO Estimates Will Never Meet. Working Paper 16/07, Department of Economics, University of Waikato.Google Scholar
Gibson, J., and McKenzie, D. (2012). The economic consequences of “brain drain” of the best and brightest: microeconomic evidence from five countries. The Economic Journal, 122(560), 339–75.Google Scholar
Gibson, J., Rozelle, S., and Huang, J. (2001). Why is income inequality so low in China compared to other countries? The effect of household survey methods. Economics Letters, 71(3): 329333.Google Scholar
Gibson, J., Rozelle, S., and Huang, J. (2003). Improving estimates of inequality and poverty from urban China’s Household Income and Expenditure survey. Review of Income and Wealth, 49(1): 5368.Google Scholar
Hagemejer, K. (2009). Rights-Based Approach to Social Security Coverage Expansion. In Holzmann, R., Robalino, D., and Takayama, N. (eds.), Closing the Coverage Gap: The Role of Social Pensions and Other Retirement Income Transfers (pp. 57–72). Washington, DC: The World Bank.Google Scholar
Hallegatte, S., and Przyluski, V. (2010). The Economics of Natural Disasters: Concepts and Methods. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3991 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0.Google Scholar
Hashemi, S., and Umaira, W. (2011). New pathways for the poorest: the graduation model from BRAC. CSP Research Report No. 10, Centre for Social Protection and Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex.Google Scholar
Ito, S., Peterson, E., and Grant, W. (1989). Rice in Asia: is it becoming an inferior good? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71(1), 3242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ivanic, M., and Martin, W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. Agricultural Economics, 39(s1), 405–16.Google Scholar
Jacob, B., Kapustin, M., and Ludwig, J. (2014). Human capital effects of anti-poverty programs: Evidence from a randomized housing voucher lottery. Working Paper No. w20164, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacoby, H. (2013). Food prices, wages, and welfare in rural India. Policy Research Working Paper No. 6412, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Jin, S., Huang, J., Hu, R., and Rozelle, S. (2002). The creation and spread of technology and total factor productivity in China’s agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84(4), 916–30.Google Scholar
Jolliffe, D. (2006). Poverty, prices, and place: how sensitive is the spatial distribution of poverty to cost-of-living adjustments? Economic Inquiry, 44(2), 296310.Google Scholar
Jorgenson, D., and Fraumeni, B. (1989). The Accumulation of Human and Non-Human Capital, 1948–1984. In Lipsey, R. E. and Tice, H. S. (eds.), The Measurement of Savings, Investment, and Wealth. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jorgenson, D., and Fraumeni, B. (1992). Investment in education and U.S. economic growth. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94(Supp), 5170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kapur, D., and McHale, J. (2005). Give Us Your Best and Brightest: The Global Hunt for Talent and Its Impact on the Developing World. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.Google Scholar
Kinkingninhoun-Mêdagbé, F., Diagne, A., Simtowe, F., Agboh-Noameshie, A., and Adégbola, P. (2010). Gender discrimination and its impact on income, productivity, and technical efficiency: evidence from Benin. Agriculture and Human Values, 27(1), 5769.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kraay, A., and McKenzie, D. (2014). Do Poverty Traps Exist? Policy Research Working Paper, No. 6835, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Kunnas, J. (2016). Human capital in Britain, 1760–2009. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 124.Google Scholar
Lazear, E. (1990). Job security provisions and employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105(3), 699726.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leonardi, M., and Pica, G. (2013). Who pays for it? The heterogeneous wage effects of employment protection legislation. The Economic Journal, 123(573), 1236–78.Google Scholar
Li, C., and Gibson, J. (2013). Rising Regional Inequality in China: Fact or Artifact? World Development, 47(1), 1629.Google Scholar
Li, C., and Gibson, J. (2014). Spatial price differences and inequality in the People’s Republic of China: housing market evidence. Asian Development Review, 31(1), 92120.Google Scholar
Lin, J. (1987). The household responsibility system reform in China: a peasant’s institutional choice. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69(2), 410–15.Google Scholar
Linh, V., and Glewwe, P. (2011). Impacts of rising food prices on poverty and welfare in Vietnam. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 36(1), 1427.Google Scholar
Liu, G. (2013). Measuring the Stock of Human Capital for International and Inter-temporal Comparisons. In Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. www.nber.org/chapters/c12832.pdf.Google Scholar
Lutter, R., Morrall, J., and Viscusi, W. K. (1999). The cost-per-life-saved cutoff for safety-enhancing regulations. Economic Inquiry, 37(4), 599608.Google Scholar
Ma, H., Huang, J., Fuller, F., and Rozelle, S. (2006). Getting rich and eating out: consumption of food away from home in urban China. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54(1), 101–19.Google Scholar
Marshall, A. (1890). Principles of Economics (8th ed., 1920), London: Macmillan; reprinted by Prometheus Books.Google Scholar
McBride, B., and Greenfield, A. (2013). Actuarial valuation of the New Zealand welfare system. Presentation at the Actuaries Summit, Sydney, May 2013. www.actuaries.asn.au/Library/Events/SUM/2013/3d-GreenfieldMcBride.pdf.Google Scholar
McKenzie, D. 2012. Beyond baseline and follow-up: The case for more T in experiments. Journal of Development Economics, 99(2): 210221.Google Scholar
McKenzie, D., and Woodruff, C. (2006). Do entry costs provide an empirical basis for poverty traps? Evidence from Mexican microenterprises. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 55(1), 342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morduch, J. (1998). Poverty, economic growth, and average exit time. Economics Letters, 59(3), 385–90.Google Scholar
Morris, S., Olinto, P., Flores, R., Nilson, E., and Figueiro, A. (2004). Conditional cash transfers are associated with a small reduction in the rate of weight gain of preschool children in northeast Brazil. The Journal of Nutrition, 134(9), 2336–41.Google Scholar
Olinto, P., Ibarra, G., and Saavedra-Chanduvi, J. (2014). Accelerating poverty reduction in a less poor world. Policy Research Working Paper No. 6855, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Olinto, P., and Uematsu, H. (2013). The state of the poor: where are the poor and where are they poorest? World Bank Poverty and Equity Department.Google Scholar
Overfield, D. (1998). An investigation of the household economy: coffee production and gender relations in Papua New Guinea. Journal of Development Studies, 34(1), 5270.Google Scholar
Overfield, D., and Fleming, E. (2001). A note on the influence of gender relations on the technical efficiency of smallholder coffee production in Papua New Guinea. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 52(1), 153–56.Google Scholar
Panagariya, A., and Mukim, M. (2014). A comprehensive analysis of poverty in India. Asian Development Review, 31(1), 152.Google Scholar
Pinkovskiy, M., and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2009). Parametric estimations of the world distribution of income. Working Paper No. w15433, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quisumbing, A. (1996). Male-female differences in agricultural productivity: methodological issues and empirical evidence. World Development, 24(10), 1579–95.Google Scholar
Ravallion, M. (2011). The two poverty enlightenments: Historical insights from digitized books spanning three centuries. Policy Research Working Paper No. 5549, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Ravallion, M. (2016). The Economics of Poverty: History, Measurement, and Policy, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Ravallion, M., and Chen, S. (2007). China’s (uneven) progress against poverty. Journal of Development Economics, 87(1), 142.Google Scholar
Ravallion, M., Chen, S., and Sangraula, P. (2007). New evidence on the urbanization of global poverty. Population and Development Review, 33(4), 667701.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slesnick, D. (1993). Gaining ground: poverty in the postwar United States. Journal of Political Economy, 101(1), 138.Google Scholar
Smith, L. C. (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy, 50(1), 5367.Google Scholar
Subramanian, S., and Deaton, A. (1996). The demand for food and calories. Journal of Political Economy, 104(1), 133–62.Google Scholar
Timmer, C. P. (2009). Rice price formation in the short run and the long run: The role of market structure in explaining volatility. Working Paper No. 172, Center for Global Development, Washington DC.Google Scholar
Timmer, C. P. (2014). Food security in Asia and the Pacific: The rapidly changing role of rice. Asia & The Pacific Policy Studies, 1(1), 7390.Google Scholar
Udry, C., Hoddinott, J., Alderman, H., and Haddad, L. (1995). Gender differentials in farm productivity: implications for household efficiency and agricultural policy. Food Policy, 20(5), 407–23.Google Scholar
Viscusi, W. K. (2000). Risk equity. Journal of Legal Studies, 29(2), 843–71.Google Scholar
Viscusi, W. K., and Hamilton, J. (1999). Are risk regulators rational? Evidence from hazardous waste cleanup decisions. American Economic Review, 89(4), 1010–27.Google Scholar
Warlters, M., and Auriol, E. (2005). The marginal cost of public funds in Africa. Policy Research Working Paper No. 3679, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Wen, G. (1993). Total factor productivity change in China’s farming sector: 1952–1989. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42(1), 141.Google Scholar
World Bank (2012). Well Begun, Not Yet Done: Vietnam’s Remarkable Progress on Poverty Reduction and the Emerging Challenges. Hanoi: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank. (2014). A Measured Approach to Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity: Concepts, Data, and the Twin Goals. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0361-1.Google Scholar
Wright, B. (2014). Global biofuels: key to the puzzle of grain market behavior. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1), 7397.Google Scholar
Yang, Y., Wang, H., Zhang, L., et al. (2013). The Han-minority achievement gap, language and returns to schools in Rural China. Working Paper No. 258, Rural Education Action Project, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Yixin, C. (2010). Under the Same Maoist Sky: Accounting for Death Rate Discrepancies in Anhui and Jiangxi. In Manning, K. and Wemheuer, F. (eds), Eating Bitterness: New Perspectives on China’s Great Leap Forward and Famine (pp. 197225). Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Yotopoulos, P. (1985). Middle-income classes and food crises: The “new” food-feed competition. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(3), 463–83.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×