Introduction

In response to the ever-clearer threat posed by climate change, the Group of Eight (G8) large industrialized countries have adopted a goal of reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 50 percent by 2050. Together with existing developed-country commitments and proposals, and equity principles written into various climate agreements, this target provides a starting point for consideration of a post-2012 international climate agreement. Success in upcoming negotiations should be aided by a clear-eyed view of the implications of simultaneously pursuing emissions targets and equity goals, and this analysis is intended as a contribution to this important international process.

While references to a 50 percent global GHG reduction target can be found in the statements of the major industrialized countries, it is clear that meeting this target will require the participation of countries beyond that small group. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its subsidiary agreements lay out broad terms of reference for sharing the task. For example, the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol divide the world into a set of developed countries (Annex I) and developing countries (non-Annex I) with “common but differential responsibilities.” The Bali Action Plan, in setting out guidelines for long-term cooperative action in the post-2012 period, reflects this equity principle and emphasizes the need for “positive incentives for developing country Parties for the enhanced implementation of national mitigation strategies and adaptation action.” Developed countries, in turn, have the responsibility to provide financial and other resources to “meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures” (UNFCCC, Article 4.8, italics added).