Whether, as in the Biden Administration's National Security Strategy, one describes China as the ‘pacing challenge,’ or, as in the Trump Administration's National Security Strategy, one identifies China together with Russia as one of a pair of ‘revisionist powers’ that ‘are contesting our geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in their favor,’ China affects the strategic environment in fundamental ways. China has made clear that it aims to compete with the US and its allies across multiple domains. Perhaps most striking is China's nuclear weapons buildup. It remains unclear precisely what strategic purpose China pursues through its buildup, but the quality and quantity suggest that China's intentions are transformative. Whatever its strategic purpose, the buildup has implications for the NPT. In view of the shift of disarmament discourse to the nuclear ban treaty, the TPNW, and the difficulties that the fading of the NPT would entail, it is under the NPT that the US and its allies should craft a diplomatic strategy to enhance our overall response to China— and to pursue the best chance of reviving nuclear arms control.

‘Breathtaking expansion’ and missing response

The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review acknowledges the stark reality of China's nuclear weapons buildup. Using language similar to that in the 2022 National Security Strategy, the NPR refers to China as ‘the overall pacing challenge for U.S. defense planning and a growing factor in evaluating our nuclear deterrent.’ The NPR repeats the publicly available estimate that China pursues a nuclear arsenal of ‘at least 1,000 deliverable warheads,’ with 2030 as the target date for attaining that new quantity of armament. For its part, the Pentagon's annual report for 2022 on China— Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China— indicates that by 2035 China will have 1,500 warheads. The NPR says that it is likely that China will use the envisaged arsenal as ‘leverage … for coercive purposes’ in pursuit of expansionist aims. As President Trump had said two years before, ‘China is surging.’