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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 21 October 2015
The long-term demographic goal of Singapore is to stabilize the population at a certain fixed number in the first half of the 21st century. In order to attain this goal, it is necessary to satisfy two conditions. The first condition is that fertility must be reduced to replacement level, and the other is to maintain it at this level. The first condition was successfully accomplished in 1975 when the gross reproduction rate reached 1.006 which is slightly below the replacement level of 1.025. The completion of the demographic transition in less than two decades since fertility first commenced to fall in 1958 can be attributed to the comprehensive population control programme as well as changing cultural, social, and economic factors favouring small families among the general population.
The second condition was never realized since fertility has continued to decline below replacement level in the last twelve years, reaching the low point of 0.779 in 1985. This is clearly due to the continuation of the same strong population control programme even after replacement fertility was attained in 1975. The failure to relax or eliminate the antinatalist policies earlier was probably due to a misunderstanding of the necessity to maintain fertility at replacement level if the population were to be stabilized at a fixed size and to be prevented from declining in the future. Even if the antinatalist policies had been abolished, the cultural, social, and economic factors favouring low fertility would continue to exert their influence. The recent experience of Taiwan and Hong Kong has demonstrated that replacement-level fertility can be attained even without strong government intervention in the area of childbearing.
The significance of fertility below replacement level can be better appreciated if we examine the question of how many more births have to be produced in order to ensure a complete renewal of the population in the future. This question can be resolved by estimating the number of births based on the assumption that the age-specific fertility rates corresponding to a gross reproduction rate of 1.025 would prevail.
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