Introduction: Background to Possible Futures

The Myanmar proverb quoted in the title of this paper was first told to me by a friend when, more than twenty years ago, I lamented the slow pace at which we were then travelling in a frequently malfunctioning Volkswagen bus up the old winding road from Mandalay to Maymyo. When, in the reign of King Mindon, a young man was, in his turn, lamenting the slow pace at which they were travelling by ox cart on a pilgrimage to Bagan, his wise father assured him that “if we travel merely a furlong a day, where can Bagan go?”

The road to Myanmar's third constitution has now been travelled for more than sixteen years, but only in August 2003 were we shown a skeletal “road map” to the eventual destination. The reputed cartographer has now left the stage, but the map remains intact. How closely it will be followed remains to be seen, though the government was quick to emphasize that Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt's departure would have no effect on policy. An estimated twenty per cent or more of the population of the country has been born since, in September 1988, the military abrogated the old one-party constitution of the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) and announced vague plans for elections to choose an assembly to draft a new constitution. But still we have no idea when the journey might end. Readers who have followed Myanmar affairs during the past decade and more will doubtless suffer a sense of déjà vu if they read further. But travel on we must, because it is the only political destination we know of, even though we have little inkling of what the weather will be like when we get there or whether the journey will provide the boon so fervently sought.

What passes for analysis and comment on contemporary Myanmar's politics might be better done by a librettist with Wagnerian tastes than by conventionally-trained political scientists and historians.