Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T02:27:52.438Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

11 - Default Episodes in the 1980s and 1990s: What Have We Learned?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 July 2009

Punam Chuhan
Affiliation:
Lead Economist, Global Monitoring Secretariat, The World Bank
Federico Sturzenegger
Affiliation:
Business School, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina; Visiting Professor of Public Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Joshua Aizenman
Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Cruz
Brian Pinto
Affiliation:
The World Bank
Get access

Summary

ABSTRACT: This chapter reviews the approaches to resolving sovereign defaults on external debt to private creditors in the 1980s and 1990s. Approaches to dealing with debt crises have changed quite radically during this period; the formal mechanisms of the 1980s that were designed to facilitate cooperation among debtors and creditors have given way to the more recent market-based debt workouts. The focus is on assessing the effectiveness of the various approaches to dealing with market inefficiencies, and offering some lessons for debt workout mechanisms for the future.

DEBT CRISES CAN BE COSTLY

External financing can help a country grow faster by financing productive investment and by minimizing the impact of shocks on economic activity. Excessive debt flows, however, can be a problem for emerging market countries. As debt burden rises, a country becomes more vulnerable to stoppages or reversals of such flows and to debt crises. Historical evidence from the 19th and 20th centuries suggests that cross-border lending to sovereigns has generally been characterized by cycles of boom and bust, and associated debt crises. Historically, foreign lending has been characterized by recurrent debt crises: in the 1820s, 1870s, 1890s, 1930s, and 1980s (Lindert and Morton 1989). These debt crisis episodes usually followed a wave of international lending, such as the British lending spurt of the 1850s and 1860s to finance railroads in Latin America, the wave of European financing to Argentina in the 1880s, the U.S.-led bond financing boom of the late 1920s, and the bank lending spurt of the 1970s that recycled petro-dollars from the first oil price shock of 1973 to developing countries.

Type
Chapter
Information
Managing Economic Volatility and Crises
A Practitioner's Guide
, pp. 471 - 520
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barro, Robert J. 2001. “Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis.” NBER Working Paper 8330. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Torbjorn, Richards, Anthony, and Yungyong, Thaicharoen. 2001. “Bond Restructuring and Moral Hazard: Are Collective Action Clauses Costly?” IMF Working Paper 01/92. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Boorman, Jack. 2002. “Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Where Stands the Debate?” Presentation at conference sponsored by the CATO Institute and The Economist, October 17, New York. Available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/sp01ind.htm
Bordo, Michael, and Barry Eichengreen. 1999. “Is Our International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?” Reserve Bank of Australia Annual Conference Volume (199–03): 18–74
Brainard, Lawrence J. 1985. “Managing the International Debt Crisis: The Future of the Baker Plan.” Contemporary Policy Issues 5(3):66–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buchheit, L. 1995. “The Sovereign Client.” Journal of International Affairs 48:527–40Google Scholar
Buchheit, L. 1997. “US Cases Put Immunity of Second Tier State Entities in Doubt.” International Financial Law Review 16(30)Google Scholar
Buchheit, L. 1998a. “Majority Action Clauses May Help Resolve Debt Crises.” International Financial Law Review 17(8):17–18Google Scholar
Buchheit, L. 1998b. “Changing Bond Documentation: The Sharing Clause.” International Financial Law Review 17(7):17–19Google Scholar
Buchheit, L. 1998c. “The Collective Representation Clause.” International Financial Law Review 17(9):19–21Google Scholar
Buchheit, L., and Mitu, G. Gulati. 2000. “Exit Consents in Sovereign Bond Exchanges.” UCLA Law Review 48(1):59–84Google Scholar
Bulow, Jeremy, and Rogoff, Kenneth S.. 1989. “Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?” American Economic Review 79(March):43–50Google Scholar
Chuhan, Punam. 2002. “Recent Experience with Bond Exchanges.” World Bank, Washington, DC. ProcessedGoogle Scholar
Clark, John. 1994. “Debt Reduction and Market Reentry under the Brady Plan.” FRBNY Quarterly Review Winter 1993–1994, pp. 38–62Google Scholar
Cline, William R. 1983. International Debt and the Stability of the World Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT PressGoogle Scholar
Cole, Harold L., and Kehoe, Patrick J.. 1992. “Reputation Spillover Across Relationships with Enduring Transient Benefits: Reviving Reputation Models of Debt.” Working Paper 534. Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of MinneapolisGoogle Scholar
Couillault, Bertrand, and Pierre-Francois, Weber. 2003. “Towards a Voluntary Code of Good Conduct for Sovereign Debt RestructuringFinancial Stability Review (Banque de France)(2):154–62Google Scholar
Dooley, Michael P. 2000. “Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?” NBER Working Paper 7531. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, Jonathan, and Raquel, Fernandez. 1995. “Sovereign Debt.” NBER Working Paper 5131. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, Jonathan, and Gersovitz, Mark. 1981. “Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.” Review of Economic Studies 48(April):289–309CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dornbusch, Rudiger. 2002. “A Primer on Emerging Market Crises.” In Sebastian, Edwards and Frankel, Jeffrey, eds., Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 743–54Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. 1989. ‘The U.S. Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920–1955.” In Sachs, Jeffrey D., ed., Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance. Vol. 1, The International Financial System. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic ResearchGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Albert Fishlow. 1996. “Contending with Capital Flows: What Is Different About the 1990s?” In Kahler, Miles, ed., Capital Flows and Financial Crises. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Ashoka, Mody. 2000. “Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?” NBER Working Paper 7458. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Richard, Portes. 1986. “Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences.” European Economic Review 30:481–513CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Richard Portes. 1989. “Dealing with Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s.” In Husain, Ishrat and Diwan, Ishac, eds., Dealing with the Debt Crisis, A World Bank Symposium. Washington, DC: World BankGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Portes, Richard. 1995. Crisis? What Crisis? Orderly Workouts for Sovereign Debtors. London: Centre for Economic Policy ResearchGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, Kletzer, Kenneth, and Mody, Ashoka. 2003. “Crisis Resolution: Next Steps.” UC Santa Cruz Economics Working Paper 03–11. University of California at Santa CruzCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez-Ansola, Juan Jose, and Laursen, Thomas. 1995. “Historical Experience with Bond Financing.” IMF Working Paper 95/27. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Benjamin M. May 2000. “Debt Restructuring.” NBER Working Paper 7722. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hutchison, Michael M., and Neugerger, Ilan. 2002. “Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets.” Comparative Economic Studies XLIV, (2)(Summer):15–45Google Scholar
IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2001. Emerging Market Financing. A Quarterly Report on Development and Prospects, 2(3)
Morgan, J. P.. 1997. “Russia: Vnesh Now Expected Mid-November.” J. P. Morgan, LondonGoogle Scholar
Morgan, J. P.. 2000. A Rough Guide to the Prin/IAN Exchange for 2010 and 2030 Eurobonds. London: J. P. MorganGoogle Scholar
Kletzer, Kenneth M. 2003. “Sovereign Bond Restructuring: Collective Action Clauses and Official Crisis Intervention.” IMF Working Paper 03/134. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Klingen, Christoph, Weder, Beatrice, and Jeromin, Zettelmeyer. 2004. “Estimating Private Returns to Emerging Market Lending, 1970–2000.” IMF Working Paper 04/13. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Krueger, Anne. 2001. “International Financial Architecture for 2002: A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring.” Address given at the National Economists' Club Annual Members' Dinner, November 26, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC. Available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/sp01ind.htmGoogle Scholar
Krueger, Anne. 2002. “New Approaches to Sovereign Debt Restructuring: An Update on Our Thinking.” Conference on Sovereign Debt Workouts: Hopes and Hazards, Institute of International Economics, April 1, Washington, DC. Available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2002/040102.htm
Lindert, Peter H. 1989. “How Sovereign Debt Has Worked.” In Sachs, Jeffrey D., ed., Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance Vol. 1. The International Financial System. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic ResearchGoogle Scholar
Lipworth, Gabrielle and Jens, Nystedt. 2001. “Crisis Resolution and Private Sector Adaptation.” IMF Staff Papers 47 (Special Issue):188–214Google Scholar
Mauro, Paolo, and Yishay, Yafeh. 2003. “The Corporation of Foreign bondholders.” IMF Working Paper 03/107. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Özler, S. 1992. “The Evolution of Credit Terms: An Empirical Study of Commercial Bank Lending to Developing Countries.” Journal of Development Economics 38(1):79–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Özler, S. 1993. “Have Commercial Banks Ignored History?” American Economic Review 83(3):608–20Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S., and Savastano, Miguel A. 2003. “Debt Intolerance.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:1–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogoff, Kenneth S. and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin. 2002. “Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas 1976–2001.” IMF Working Paper 02/133. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
Rose, Andrew. 2002. “One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade.” NBER Working Paper 8853. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MACrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roubini, N. 2002. “Do We Need a New International Bankruptcy Regime? Comments on Bulow, Sachs, and White.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:321–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey D. 1988. “The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries.” In Jorge, B. de Macedo and Findlay, Ronald, eds., Debt Growth and Stabilization: Essays in Memory of Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro. Oxford: BlackwellGoogle Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey D. 1995. “Do We Need an International Lender of Last Resort?” Frank D. Graham Lecture, Princeton University, Princeton, April 20Google Scholar
Snow, John W. 2003. “Plenary Statement 2003 IMF/WB Annual Meeting.” Dubai, UAE, September 23Google Scholar
Standard and Poor's. 2002. Sovereign Defaults: Moving Higher Again in 2003?New York: Standard and Poor's
Sturzenegger, Federico. 2002a. “Toolkit for the Analysis of Debt Problems.” Journal of Restructuring FinanceGoogle Scholar
Sturzenegger, Federico. 2002b. “Default Episodes of the 90s: Fact Book and Preliminary Lessons.” Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos AiresGoogle Scholar
Trichet, Jean Claude. 2001. “Preserving Financial Stability in an Increasingly Globalized World” Keynote speech at the European Financial Markets Convention, Paris, June 15
World Bank. Global Development Finance. Various issues. Washington, DC

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×