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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 29 January 2021
Suppose I hold a ticket – ticket #5472, say – in a fair 10,000-ticket lottery with a single winner. Suppose the lottery has been drawn, but I’m yet to hear the result. Suppose I already believe, however, that ticket #5472 has lost, based on the fact that there is only one winning ticket and 9,999 losers. Surely, given these odds, I am justified in believing that ticket #5472 has lost. There’s nothing special, however, about the ticket that I happen to be holding; it has as good a chance of being the winner as any other ticket. As a result, if I’m justified in believing that ticket #5472 has lost, then I should be justified in believing the same thing about ticket #1, about ticket #2, about ticket #3 … right up to ticket #10,000.
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