For most of the last twenty-five years, the Philippines has been widely viewed — even by many Filipinos — as Southeast Asia's “odd man out”, or even worse, as the region's “sick man”. It has been seen as being more Latin American than East Asian; as being a perennial underachiever in a region of high performers; and at times as being a feckless democracy in a region of effective autocrats.

There are significant elements of truth to some of these assertions (and aspersions). In many important ways the Philippines has been different from — and less successful than — some of its Southeast Asian neighbours. The Philippines’ mediocre (by regional standards) statistics for economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction, to take just a few indicators, do not present a false picture.

But there is also a degree of exaggeration in some of the assertions about the Philippines: that it has always been a laggard, or that it is incapable of performing well, or that its politics and governance are significantly more problematic than its neighbours. This essay seeks to move beyond the generalizations to examine the Philippines’ track record — separately and comparatively — over the last forty years. The goal is not to validate the Philippines’ performance — that would require someone far more Panglossian than I. Rather, the purpose is to identify more precisely the ways the Philippines has underperformed and the reasons why. This will yield a more nuanced and varied picture of the Philippines’ performance and prospects. It also offers valuable insights into the importance of particular leaders, institutions, policies, and periods of time.

This essay also addresses the question of what the Philippines’ past experience suggests both for its future trajectory and for the trajectory of Southeast Asia's other democracies. Are the challenges facing the Philippines that much different than the challenges facing Southeast Asia's other weakly institutionalized democracies? In another words, is the rest of democratic Southeast Asia becoming more like the Philippines? This essay also addresses the question of what the Philippines’ past experience suggests both for its future trajectory and for the trajectory of Southeast Asia's other democracies.