Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 October 2009
Profit arises out of the inherent, absolute unpredictability of things, out of the sheer brute fact that the results of human activity cannot be anticipated and then only in so far as even a probability calculation in regard to them is impossible and meaningless.
(Knight, 1921: 311)In 1921, Frank H. Knight made a classic distinction between “risk” and “uncertainty” in economic endeavors, claiming that while risk can be calculated, uncertainty cannot. Since then, a variety of methods for assessing and reducing risk have been developed and used, while essentially ignoring uncertainty. In the 1970s, however, in the face of increasing international competition, oil crisis, floating currencies, political unrest, and the idiosyncratic demands of lifestyle consumption, turning a blind eye toward the uncertainties of enterprising was no longer a feasible option. Rather, uncertainty had to be recognized as a fundamental precondition of modern corporations. Out of Japan came the realization that planning and organizing for it, and not just against it, could provide a competitive advantage (Ouchi, 1981; Porter, 1990). The general strategy for coping with uncertainty, introduced by the Japanese, was to increase the flexibility of production (Piore and Sabel, 1984). The principles of flexibility have since been introduced into almost every aspect of corporate life.
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