Introduction

In chapters 4–13, more than 400 timed and untimed observations of both solar and lunar eclipses from the pre-telescopic period (date range –700 to +1600) have been investigated in detail. ΔT values or limits (depending on whether the observations were timed or untimed) have been derived in almost every case. The fundamental objective of the present chapter is to use these results to obtain the best-fitting ΔT curve to the data and hence to determine changes in the length of the day (LOD) over the historical period. In addition, the various geophysical mechanisms responsible for the observed variations will also be discussed. I am grateful to Dr L. V. Morrison of the Royal Greenwich Observatory for undertaking the data analysis which forms the basis of much of this chapter and producing several of the diagrams. This chapter is essentially an enlargement of section 5 of the paper by Stephenson and Morrison (1995). Although several tens of further historical data have been added (notably medieval Chinese timing – see chapter 9), the basic conclusions obtained in that paper remain unchanged.

All of the ΔT results derived in chapters 4–13 are summarised in tabular form in the Appendices for ready reference. For each individual observation, only the year (– or +) and appropriate ΔT value or limits are tabulated. Appendix A contains timed data and Appendix B untimed material, each being divided into sub-groups depending on the source and type of observation it contains.