Book contents
- Good Thinking
- Good Thinking
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Part I
- One The Game of Logic – What Follows from What
- Two Moral Judgment – How We Tell Right from Wrong
- Three Analogical Reasoning – The Heart and Soul of Insight, Discovery, and Genius
- Four Scientific Reasoning – Proving What Causes What
- Five Decision-Making – Choosing What Is Most Likely to Give You What You Most Want
- Six Game Theory – When You’re Not the Only One Choosing
- Seven Creative Problem-Solving – Turning What You Don’t Want into What You Do Want
- Part II
- Appendix A Answers to Insight Problems
- Answer Key to Quizzes
- Notes
- Index
Five - Decision-Making – Choosing What Is Most Likely to Give You What You Most Want
from Part I
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 February 2021
- Good Thinking
- Good Thinking
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Part I
- One The Game of Logic – What Follows from What
- Two Moral Judgment – How We Tell Right from Wrong
- Three Analogical Reasoning – The Heart and Soul of Insight, Discovery, and Genius
- Four Scientific Reasoning – Proving What Causes What
- Five Decision-Making – Choosing What Is Most Likely to Give You What You Most Want
- Six Game Theory – When You’re Not the Only One Choosing
- Seven Creative Problem-Solving – Turning What You Don’t Want into What You Do Want
- Part II
- Appendix A Answers to Insight Problems
- Answer Key to Quizzes
- Notes
- Index
Summary
In his book Calculated Risks, decision-making expert Gerd Gigerenzer reports the case of a doctor who convinced ninety “high-risk” women without cancer to sacrifice their breasts “in a heroic exchange for the certainty of saving their lives and protecting their loved ones from suffering and loss.” But as Gigerenzer points out, if the doctor had done the calculations correctly, he would have found that the vast majority of these women (eighty-four out of ninety, to be precise) were not expected to develop breast cancer at all.
Was this an isolated case of poor reasoning on the part of a single doctor? Unfortunately, the answer is no, as is plainly apparent in the ongoing controversies surrounding breast cancer and prostate cancer screening.
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- Chapter
- Information
- Good ThinkingSeven Powerful Ideas That Influence the Way We Think, pp. 89 - 114Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2021