SYNOPSIS

In earlier chapters we focused on critical features of the neighborhood, family, school, and peer group and the unique and overall contribution of each context to our success outcomes. Now with the full model explicated, we can specify which variables in each context are most important for predicting and understanding successful development. And we can address the major questions posed in Chapter 1 – What factors contribute to a successful course of development in disadvantaged, poor neighborhoods? Are the conditions and processes that account for success in disadvantaged neighborhoods the same or different from those that account for success in advantaged neighborhoods? To answer these questions, we estimate the directly explained variance (d) for each contextual characteristic and each overall context, assigning the large shared variance effect from our earlier analyses to specific factors and contexts.

As predicted in Chapter 5, neighborhood Disadvantage per se, has no negative effect on youth development outcomes at the neighborhood level. Its influence is mediated entirely by the type of neighborhood Organization, and to some extent by the quality of the school. However, a deteriorated, run-down neighborhood does have a negative effect on neighborhood success rates, at least for some outcomes. Organized Neighborhoods make a substantial contribution to a successful course of development, as does a good family context (particularly Parenting Practices and Family Resources), a safe school with a positive climate, and a positive peer group.