Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
13 - Testing forecast accuracy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 November 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
Summary
Structural stability is often tested by checking whether the coefficients of a regression model are constant across different sub-samples. Such tests are commonly used as a general specification test, based on the belief that a correctly specified model should have constant parameters (or ‘invariant’ parameters if some aspect of the economic regime or policy stance has changed). A related set of testing procedures is the focus of this chapter, where we wish to test whether a model estimated over one period can provide adequate forecasts over a subsequent period. Such tests are known as tests of predictive failure. Finally, we consider the problems inherent in directly comparing two sets of rival forecasts of the same phenomena independently of the models from which they were produced.
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- Information
- Forecasting Economic Time Series , pp. 312 - 328Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1998