Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
4 - Forecasting in univariate processes
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 November 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
Summary
The class of univariate processes considered in this chapter includes stationary and non-stationary cases, where the latter are either integrated (and so can be made stationary by an appropriate level of differencing) or are stationary around a deterministic polynomial of time. We assume in all cases that the model is the process that generated the data: in subsequent chapters, this assumption is relaxed. We define forecasts, forecast errors, forecast-error variances and prediction intervals, and make explicit the distinction between conditional and unconditional forecasts. The impact of parameter estimation uncertainty is discussed. We reconsider the ‘informativeness of forecasts’, with an illustration in terms of predicting stock-market prices, and the related notion of ‘the limit to forecastability’ (the horizon up to which forecasts are informative). We also discuss forecasting in non-linear models, the impact of ARCH on prediction intervals, and point predictions for asymmetric loss functions.
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- Forecasting Economic Time Series , pp. 79 - 106Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1998
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